Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     One at 10/26/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 59 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lola at 10/25/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 79 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lola at 10/25/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 76 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lola at 10/25/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 79 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lola at 10/25/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 89 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lola at 10/24/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 107 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lola at 10/24/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 105 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.6% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lola at 10/24/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 95 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.2% 3.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lola at 10/24/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 121 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 13.2% 7.1% 3.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.0% 2.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lola at 10/23/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 130 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 30.3% 21.9% 9.8% 2.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 9.8% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 16.6% 8.6% 3.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 17.4% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.1% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lola at 10/23/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 131 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 36.6% 34.8% 14.9% 9.0% 1.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 19.1% 5.8% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 24.9% 15.4% 7.5% 3.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 32.2% 7.2% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 6.0% 4.4% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lola at 10/23/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 135 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 40.6% 49.4% 35.1% 36.8% 10.7% 8.8% 3.6% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 35.0% 24.8% 18.1% 17.8% 14.2% 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 36.8% 33.0% 23.7% 24.1% 13.0% 12.8% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 53.6% 28.3% 20.8% 20.2% 14.6% 21.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 16.4% 21.3% 15.4% 15.4% 13.8% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lola at 10/23/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 147 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 34.9% 57.1% 40.8% 39.1% 16.3% 43.4% 14.5% 7.0% 0.6% 1.5% RIPA Consensus 61.8% 74.4% 70.9% 70.1% 63.5% 36.4% 9.9% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 52.8% 68.6% 60.9% 59.7% 47.7% 38.7% 11.4% 7.1% 0.1% 0.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 75.6% 76.0% 69.4% 67.7% 57.7% 35.1% 0.0% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 48.0% 72.9% 72.5% 72.5% 69.3% 37.7% 19.7% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lola at 10/22/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 140 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 30.1% 53.4% 50.8% 41.1% 17.4% 37.7% 25.6% 24.3% 8.7% 1.4% RIPA Consensus 44.9% 69.0% 56.5% 51.8% 49.7% 43.0% 13.9% 14.7% 8.0% 2.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 39.9% 63.7% 54.6% 48.1% 38.9% 41.2% 17.8% 17.9% 8.2% 2.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 58.1% 70.7% 52.1% 42.6% 41.7% 37.7% 0.0% 15.3% 5.8% 0.8% Logistic Regression 31.6% 67.3% 60.9% 60.9% 57.7% 48.3% 27.8% 14.2% 10.2% 4.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lola at 10/22/23 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 145 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 21.8% 50.4% 30.7% 23.5% 18.0% 39.2% 14.7% 42.5% 17.3% 12.6% RIPA Consensus 39.1% 72.2% 61.1% 59.0% 49.8% 56.0% 25.3% 30.9% 18.3% 8.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 33.3% 64.8% 50.9% 47.1% 39.1% 50.4% 21.7% 34.7% 17.9% 9.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 44.8% 68.2% 51.7% 47.6% 31.8% 43.6% 0.0% 30.2% 10.3% 2.1% Logistic Regression 33.4% 76.1% 70.5% 70.5% 67.8% 68.4% 50.6% 31.6% 26.2% 14.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   One at 10/22/23 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 140 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 17.2% 39.7% 28.6% 11.7% 7.8% 38.4% 19.5% 40.9% 19.9% 30.3% RIPA Consensus 37.6% 75.8% 64.4% 63.0% 50.7% 62.3% 32.4% 43.7% 29.9% 21.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 30.8% 63.7% 52.4% 45.9% 36.4% 54.3% 28.0% 42.8% 26.5% 24.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 38.8% 70.6% 52.2% 49.4% 27.7% 46.4% 0.0% 40.9% 19.7% 13.5% Logistic Regression 36.4% 80.9% 76.6% 76.6% 73.8% 78.2% 64.8% 46.6% 40.2% 29.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   One at 10/22/23 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 143 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 18.8% 50.5% 33.9% 13.8% 11.1% 41.5% 14.6% 46.6% 21.6% 44.7% RIPA Consensus 20.5% 79.3% 58.6% 49.6% 47.0% 67.5% 34.3% 58.0% 43.0% 57.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 19.9% 69.7% 50.3% 37.6% 35.0% 58.8% 27.7% 54.1% 35.8% 52.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 15.7% 75.8% 42.7% 24.6% 22.5% 51.9% 0.0% 51.4% 24.9% 61.9% Logistic Regression 25.3% 82.9% 74.5% 74.5% 71.6% 83.0% 68.6% 64.6% 61.1% 52.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   One at 10/21/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 147 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 11.0% 45.6% 21.7% 11.6% 8.8% 30.7% 12.1% 45.2% 21.5% 38.3% RIPA Consensus 14.7% 63.1% 45.1% 43.0% 32.9% 60.4% 35.4% 52.6% 40.4% 47.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 13.4% 57.2% 37.2% 32.5% 24.8% 50.5% 27.5% 50.1% 34.1% 44.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 10.6% 52.0% 27.5% 23.3% 5.8% 38.7% 0.0% 48.6% 24.8% 38.6% Logistic Regression 18.7% 74.2% 62.6% 62.6% 60.0% 82.2% 70.7% 56.5% 56.0% 55.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------