Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Four at 01/05/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 14 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Four at 01/04/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 13 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Four at 01/04/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 21 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Alvaro at 01/04/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 24 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Alvaro at 01/04/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 57 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 3.2% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Alvaro at 01/03/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 71 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Alvaro at 01/03/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 82 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Alvaro at 01/03/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 91 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Alvaro at 01/03/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 102 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Alvaro at 01/02/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 109 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.1% 3.2% 1.6% 1.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.1% 1.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Alvaro at 01/02/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 83 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Alvaro at 01/02/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 70 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Alvaro at 01/02/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 136 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 3.5% 0.8% 1.5% 1.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Alvaro at 01/01/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 152 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.8% 19.5% 8.8% 4.1% 2.5% 2.8% 0.8% 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 1.8% 5.7% 2.3% 2.2% 1.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.8% 10.3% 4.4% 2.8% 1.8% 1.5% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.8% 4.1% 1.5% 1.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.8% 7.4% 3.1% 3.0% 2.8% 1.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Alvaro at 01/01/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 11.1% 23.8% 12.7% 10.8% 8.1% 10.1% 1.0% 5.2% 0.1% 1.9% RIPA Consensus 10.6% 23.6% 14.1% 14.1% 8.8% 8.5% 2.0% 1.9% 0.7% 0.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 10.7% 23.7% 13.6% 13.0% 8.5% 9.0% 1.6% 3.0% 0.4% 1.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 12.4% 20.2% 11.5% 11.5% 2.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 8.8% 27.1% 16.7% 16.7% 15.2% 12.6% 3.9% 3.4% 1.2% 1.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Alvaro at 01/01/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 145 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 20.6% 33.2% 25.6% 14.9% 9.2% 20.0% 10.5% 23.0% 1.1% 5.6% RIPA Consensus 11.7% 28.0% 16.9% 16.9% 11.5% 16.9% 5.7% 6.2% 2.4% 3.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 14.6% 29.7% 19.7% 16.2% 10.7% 17.9% 7.2% 11.7% 1.9% 3.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 11.2% 20.2% 10.3% 10.3% 1.9% 6.5% 0.0% 3.5% 0.1% 0.2% Logistic Regression 12.2% 35.9% 23.4% 23.4% 21.1% 27.2% 11.3% 8.8% 4.6% 5.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Alvaro at 01/01/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 141 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 1.9% 11.7% 4.9% 4.5% 3.6% 6.4% 1.6% 2.0% 0.8% 1.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.1% 5.4% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.7% Logistic Regression 2.8% 18.0% 8.0% 7.2% 7.2% 11.2% 3.1% 3.3% 1.4% 2.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Alvaro at 12/31/23 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 141 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.0% 23.6% 12.8% 9.3% 3.9% 11.8% 6.6% 11.2% 1.5% 3.2% RIPA Consensus 2.9% 18.7% 9.6% 8.7% 7.4% 18.3% 6.2% 7.8% 3.5% 1.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.9% 20.3% 10.6% 8.9% 6.2% 16.1% 6.3% 8.9% 2.8% 2.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.0% 9.2% 4.9% 3.4% 0.8% 7.4% 0.0% 5.8% 1.9% 0.9% Logistic Regression 3.7% 28.1% 14.3% 14.0% 14.0% 29.3% 12.4% 9.7% 5.1% 2.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------