Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Five intensity image current Five RI diff image

 


Belal at 01/20/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 73 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Belal at 01/19/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 95 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Belal at 01/19/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 116 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Belal at 01/19/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 119 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Belal at 01/19/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 127 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Belal at 01/18/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 121 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Belal at 01/18/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 119 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.4% 2.4% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Belal at 01/18/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 122 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.4% 2.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Belal at 01/18/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 114 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Belal at 01/17/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 104 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Belal at 01/17/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 99 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Belal at 01/17/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 90 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Belal at 01/17/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 82 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Belal at 01/16/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 76 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Belal at 01/16/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 88 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Belal at 01/16/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 110 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Belal at 01/15/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 107 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Belal at 01/15/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 127 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.5% 2.2% 1.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.9% 0.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.2% 1.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.5% 1.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Belal at 01/15/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 131 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.2% 2.4% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 1.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.4% 1.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.9% 3.2% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Belal at 01/15/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 138 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 6.7% 5.3% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.4% 3.5% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 10.8% 6.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 2.6% 4.5% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Belal at 01/14/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 127 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 18.0% 15.4% 10.4% 8.8% 8.6% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 11.9% 10.7% 6.9% 5.8% 5.7% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 27.1% 17.2% 12.7% 9.6% 9.4% 16.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 8.8% 13.7% 8.0% 8.0% 7.9% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Belal at 01/14/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 135 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 24.7% 28.4% 20.9% 19.6% 18.2% 15.9% 1.6% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 16.4% 19.8% 13.9% 13.0% 12.1% 10.6% 1.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 34.4% 29.1% 20.9% 18.2% 16.3% 22.4% 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 14.9% 27.8% 20.9% 20.9% 20.1% 9.5% 3.2% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Belal at 01/14/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 146 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 6.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 68.0% 84.7% 83.4% 83.4% 77.1% 69.6% 24.1% 33.8% 0.0% 6.8%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 45.3% 58.6% 55.6% 55.8% 51.3% 46.4% 16.0% 22.5% 0.0% 4.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 78.3% 84.0% 81.5% 81.5% 70.6% 74.4% 0.0% 34.4% 0.0% 5.3%
Logistic Regression 57.8% 85.4% 85.4% 85.4% 83.5% 64.8% 48.2% 33.3% 0.0% 8.3%
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Belal at 01/14/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 159 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 10.0% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 62.6% 82.8% 82.8% 82.8% 68.4% 60.6% 23.3% 35.4% 13.0% 7.8%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 41.7% 58.5% 55.2% 55.4% 45.6% 40.4% 15.5% 23.5% 8.6% 5.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 72.0% 80.6% 80.6% 80.6% 53.7% 56.9% 0.0% 33.4% 8.0% 4.8%
Logistic Regression 53.2% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0% 83.2% 64.3% 46.7% 37.4% 18.0% 10.8%
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Belal at 01/13/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 152 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 5.2% 0.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 54.0% 81.1% 76.1% 76.1% 64.0% 57.8% 23.2% 36.6% 14.8% 10.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 64.5% 79.6% 70.0% 70.0% 48.0% 50.8% 0.0% 33.0% 8.4% 6.6%
Logistic Regression 43.5% 82.7% 82.2% 82.2% 80.0% 64.8% 46.4% 40.2% 21.2% 13.3%
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Belal at 01/13/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 153 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 14.6% 44.1% 38.8% 22.9% 23.3% 38.4% 28.8% 46.2% 20.3% 36.0% RIPA Consensus 30.8% 76.1% 65.5% 62.3% 53.9% 63.7% 30.3% 54.5% 32.5% 43.9%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 25.3% 65.4% 56.6% 49.1% 43.6% 55.2% 29.7% 51.7% 28.4% 41.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 30.5% 70.9% 52.7% 46.3% 31.4% 52.4% 0.0% 49.7% 24.7% 43.6%
Logistic Regression 31.0% 81.4% 78.3% 78.3% 76.3% 75.1% 60.5% 59.3% 40.3% 44.3%
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Belal at 01/13/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 154 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 9.0% 46.3% 58.0% 30.0% 35.4% 41.3% 41.3% 46.2% 27.6% 46.1% RIPA Consensus 9.7% 51.8% 33.8% 33.1% 24.2% 46.9% 19.2% 46.0% 26.2% 52.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.5% 49.9% 41.8% 32.0% 27.9% 45.0% 26.5% 46.1% 26.6% 50.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 8.9% 43.0% 20.5% 19.1% 3.9% 33.7% 0.0% 45.7% 22.9% 54.6%
Logistic Regression 10.6% 60.6% 47.1% 47.1% 44.5% 60.1% 38.4% 46.4% 29.4% 50.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Five at 01/13/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 159 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 7.9% 53.1% 65.1% 39.2% 32.0% 41.2% 34.9% 48.7% 30.3% 42.3% RIPA Consensus 14.2% 45.2% 31.7% 30.9% 30.9% 45.9% 12.5% 34.1% 21.7% 39.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 12.1% 47.8% 42.8% 33.6% 31.3% 44.3% 20.0% 38.9% 24.5% 40.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 18.9% 41.7% 31.8% 30.3% 30.3% 43.1% 0.0% 37.2% 24.8% 49.2%
Logistic Regression 9.5% 48.6% 31.6% 31.6% 31.6% 48.7% 25.1% 30.9% 18.7% 29.9%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Five at 01/12/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 156 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.9% 31.4% 8.9% 17.1% 19.2% 20.1% 7.1% 20.5% 9.4% 43.3% RIPA Consensus 5.0% 40.6% 22.8% 19.7% 15.9% 44.5% 19.9% 49.2% 33.0% 64.9%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.3% 37.5% 18.2% 18.8% 17.0% 36.3% 15.6% 39.6% 25.1% 57.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.2% 30.7% 14.2% 8.9% 1.7% 27.0% 0.0% 47.1% 24.8% 61.9%
Logistic Regression 6.8% 50.6% 31.5% 30.5% 30.1% 62.0% 39.8% 51.3% 41.1% 67.8%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Five at 01/12/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 157 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.4% 48.4% 36.1% 11.6% 10.0% 34.0% 18.6% 34.5% 13.2% 38.2% RIPA Consensus 10.3% 52.5% 31.8% 28.2% 22.9% 55.5% 27.9% 57.8% 42.8% 69.9%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.6% 51.1% 33.2% 22.6% 18.5% 48.3% 24.8% 50.0% 32.9% 59.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 8.2% 43.7% 21.9% 15.0% 4.5% 37.1% 0.0% 51.1% 24.8% 61.9%
Logistic Regression 12.3% 61.4% 41.7% 41.4% 41.3% 73.9% 55.8% 64.5% 60.8% 78.0%
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