Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Anggrek at 01/31/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 25 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/31/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 41 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/31/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 47 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/30/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 31 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/30/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 39 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/30/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 49 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/30/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 76 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/29/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 96 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/29/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 100 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/29/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 132 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.9% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 8.5% 1.7% 1.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.6% 1.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 13.4% 1.5% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.6% 2.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/28/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 125 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 27.0% 8.2% 6.5% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 18.0% 5.5% 4.3% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 41.7% 9.1% 9.1% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 12.3% 7.3% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/28/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 117 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 11.1% 9.1% 7.4% 7.4% 7.4% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.3% 6.2% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 14.2% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 8.0% 10.2% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/28/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 116 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.7% 9.8% 3.1% 1.2% 0.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 3.7% 7.4% 5.9% 5.3% 5.3% 4.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.3% 8.2% 4.9% 3.9% 3.7% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.5% 3.9% 3.9% 2.9% 2.9% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.9% 10.9% 7.9% 7.8% 7.8% 1.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/28/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 125 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.0% 13.9% 6.3% 1.2% 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 8.7% 11.3% 9.5% 8.9% 8.9% 17.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 8.8% 12.1% 8.4% 6.3% 5.9% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 10.9% 8.8% 8.8% 7.6% 7.6% 30.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 6.6% 13.8% 10.2% 10.2% 10.2% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/27/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 131 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 13.1% 19.3% 9.7% 2.4% 0.5% 2.4% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 7.6% 10.7% 8.8% 8.8% 8.8% 22.8% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.4% 13.5% 9.0% 6.6% 6.0% 15.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 10.3% 9.1% 9.1% 9.1% 9.1% 39.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.9% 12.3% 8.4% 8.4% 8.4% 6.3% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/27/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 127 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 12.0% 19.0% 17.0% 16.5% 12.5% 30.1% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.9% 13.2% 11.3% 11.0% 8.3% 20.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 13.0% 14.1% 13.4% 12.4% 5.3% 46.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 10.9% 23.9% 20.6% 20.6% 19.6% 13.6% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/27/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 103 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 17.2% 20.1% 9.0% 5.9% 1.5% 2.1% 0.3% 2.0% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 8.6% 15.6% 13.3% 12.8% 9.5% 26.1% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 11.4% 17.0% 11.8% 10.5% 6.8% 18.0% 1.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 9.2% 10.7% 8.5% 7.6% 3.0% 41.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 7.9% 20.5% 18.1% 18.1% 16.1% 10.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/27/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 100 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.3% 12.7% 5.8% 1.7% 0.3% 1.1% 0.1% 1.3% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 2.9% 6.9% 5.6% 4.7% 4.1% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.0% 8.8% 5.7% 3.7% 2.8% 10.7% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.6% 3.8% 3.7% 2.3% 1.3% 26.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.1% 10.0% 7.6% 7.2% 6.9% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/26/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 121 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 12.4% 15.7% 13.9% 4.2% 0.4% 1.3% 0.2% 1.6% 0.0% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 6.8% 10.7% 8.8% 7.1% 7.1% 26.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 8.6% 12.3% 10.5% 6.1% 4.8% 17.9% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 9.2% 9.0% 9.0% 5.8% 5.8% 46.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.4% 12.4% 8.7% 8.5% 8.5% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/26/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 110 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 8.8% 12.4% 10.9% 9.8% 8.0% 28.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.8% 8.9% 7.2% 6.5% 5.3% 19.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 10.4% 9.2% 9.2% 7.0% 4.1% 46.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 7.1% 15.6% 12.6% 12.6% 11.9% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/26/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 87 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 18.3% 20.2% 18.5% 17.3% 16.2% 39.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 12.2% 14.0% 12.4% 11.5% 10.8% 26.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 24.7% 17.6% 17.6% 15.2% 14.1% 58.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 12.0% 22.7% 19.4% 19.4% 18.4% 20.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/26/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 83 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 30.6% 25.7% 24.3% 24.3% 23.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 20.4% 17.2% 16.2% 16.2% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 45.9% 24.8% 24.8% 24.8% 24.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 15.4% 26.6% 23.8% 23.8% 22.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/25/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 82 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 22.6% 31.5% 30.5% 30.4% 28.6% 35.9% 0.0% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 15.0% 22.4% 20.4% 20.2% 19.0% 23.9% 0.0% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 29.3% 25.1% 23.1% 22.7% 22.7% 41.4% 0.0% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 15.9% 38.0% 38.0% 38.0% 34.6% 30.4% 0.0% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/25/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 92 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 13.8% 18.2% 15.4% 6.4% 1.9% 5.9% 1.3% 8.3% 0.1% 3.5% RIPA Consensus 8.8% 15.0% 14.1% 13.3% 11.4% 12.0% 2.8% 6.1% 0.0% 5.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 10.5% 16.0% 14.5% 10.9% 8.2% 9.9% 2.3% 6.8% 0.0% 4.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 9.6% 9.5% 9.5% 7.8% 5.6% 11.7% 0.0% 4.6% 0.0% 7.0% Logistic Regression 8.1% 20.5% 18.7% 18.7% 17.1% 12.2% 5.6% 7.5% 0.0% 3.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/25/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 95 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.9% 17.4% 25.5% 5.7% 0.9% 6.6% 1.9% 5.4% 0.1% 2.4% RIPA Consensus 7.4% 8.9% 7.5% 7.4% 7.3% 8.4% 1.5% 3.5% 0.0% 3.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 8.2% 11.7% 13.5% 6.8% 5.1% 7.8% 1.6% 4.1% 0.0% 3.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 8.8% 6.1% 6.1% 5.8% 5.8% 9.4% 0.0% 2.7% 0.0% 5.3% Logistic Regression 5.9% 11.8% 8.9% 8.9% 8.7% 7.4% 3.0% 4.2% 0.0% 2.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/25/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 91 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 16.7% 27.0% 21.6% 17.1% 6.4% 6.6% 1.9% 6.3% 0.3% 4.0% RIPA Consensus 12.9% 13.1% 11.2% 11.2% 11.2% 9.1% 1.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 14.1% 17.7% 14.6% 13.1% 9.6% 8.2% 1.5% 4.3% 0.0% 1.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 16.5% 11.4% 11.4% 11.4% 11.4% 11.3% 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 9.2% 14.8% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 7.0% 2.7% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/24/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 89 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 14.0% 33.3% 18.5% 17.5% 6.8% 5.3% 1.0% 2.2% 0.1% 4.0% RIPA Consensus 27.9% 30.5% 27.5% 27.5% 27.5% 19.3% 0.0% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 23.2% 31.3% 24.5% 24.1% 20.5% 14.6% 0.3% 5.2% 0.0% 1.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 43.5% 36.9% 36.9% 36.9% 36.9% 24.7% 0.0% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 12.3% 24.0% 18.1% 18.1% 18.1% 13.8% 0.0% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/24/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 89 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 31.1% 40.4% 17.7% 10.9% 6.5% 7.9% 4.4% 6.1% 1.0% 5.2% RIPA Consensus 39.3% 39.1% 37.0% 37.0% 32.0% 17.1% 4.7% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 36.6% 39.5% 30.5% 28.3% 23.5% 14.0% 4.5% 4.3% 0.3% 1.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 55.5% 39.1% 39.1% 39.1% 29.1% 15.4% 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 23.2% 39.1% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 18.9% 9.3% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/24/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 89 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 4.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 22.1% 33.5% 28.4% 28.1% 27.9% 20.9% 7.1% 5.1% 0.0% 6.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 14.7% 23.8% 19.0% 18.8% 18.6% 13.9% 4.7% 3.3% 0.0% 4.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 29.3% 28.1% 25.1% 24.5% 24.5% 15.0% 0.0% 4.1% 0.0% 7.1% Logistic Regression 15.0% 38.9% 31.8% 31.8% 31.4% 26.8% 14.3% 6.0% 0.0% 6.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/24/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 89 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 3.9% 9.3% 5.9% 5.5% 5.5% 8.2% 2.1% 3.5% 2.9% 7.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.6% 7.3% 3.9% 3.6% 3.6% 5.5% 1.4% 2.3% 1.9% 5.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.7% 5.7% 5.0% 4.3% 4.3% 5.3% 0.0% 3.9% 3.9% 10.8% Logistic Regression 3.1% 12.9% 6.8% 6.7% 6.7% 11.2% 4.2% 3.1% 1.9% 4.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/23/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 96 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 2.9% 7.0% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 7.6% 1.6% 3.9% 3.2% 3.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.8% 5.6% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% 5.1% 1.0% 2.5% 2.1% 2.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 5.2% 0.0% 4.5% 4.5% 4.7% Logistic Regression 2.4% 9.8% 4.3% 4.1% 4.1% 10.1% 3.3% 3.2% 1.9% 3.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/23/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 95 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 2.3% 5.9% 3.1% 2.3% 2.3% 6.8% 1.7% 4.7% 4.2% 4.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.5% 5.0% 2.0% 1.5% 1.5% 4.5% 1.1% 3.1% 2.8% 3.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.4% 3.0% 2.4% 1.1% 1.1% 3.7% 0.0% 6.2% 6.2% 5.7% Logistic Regression 2.2% 8.7% 3.8% 3.5% 3.5% 10.0% 3.4% 3.2% 2.3% 3.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/23/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 87 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.3% 5.5% 2.6% 1.9% 1.8% 6.3% 2.1% 5.0% 4.6% 8.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.8% 4.3% 1.7% 1.2% 1.2% 4.1% 1.4% 3.3% 3.1% 5.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 2.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 1.1% 0.0% 6.1% 6.1% 12.2% Logistic Regression 1.9% 9.0% 4.2% 3.4% 3.4% 11.4% 4.2% 3.9% 3.1% 5.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/23/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 101 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 5.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.0% 4.1% 1.9% 1.5% 1.5% 5.3% 1.4% 5.4% 4.9% 9.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 4.3% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 3.5% 0.9% 3.6% 3.2% 6.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.8% 1.2% 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 1.9% 0.0% 7.2% 7.2% 13.2% Logistic Regression 1.3% 7.0% 2.9% 2.5% 2.5% 8.8% 2.8% 3.6% 2.5% 5.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/22/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 107 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 2.3% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 3.9% 0.8% 10.4% 9.9% 26.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 2.6% 0.5% 6.9% 6.5% 17.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 2.2% 0.0% 17.6% 17.6% 44.4% Logistic Regression 0.5% 4.0% 1.5% 1.2% 1.2% 5.6% 1.5% 3.2% 2.1% 8.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/22/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 105 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.1% 3.5% 1.8% 1.3% 1.3% 3.9% 0.9% 4.2% 3.7% 8.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 2.9% 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 2.5% 0.6% 2.8% 2.5% 5.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 1.8% 0.0% 6.1% 6.1% 12.9% Logistic Regression 1.2% 5.9% 2.6% 2.3% 2.3% 5.9% 1.8% 2.4% 1.4% 3.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/22/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 108 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.1% 8.1% 4.6% 3.7% 3.3% 8.5% 3.2% 5.7% 4.2% 8.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 5.7% 3.1% 2.5% 2.2% 5.6% 2.1% 3.8% 2.8% 5.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 2.7% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 1.5% 0.0% 4.8% 4.8% 11.3% Logistic Regression 1.9% 13.6% 8.0% 7.0% 6.5% 15.4% 6.4% 6.7% 3.7% 6.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/22/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 90 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 1.7% 0.3% 4.4% 3.7% 20.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 1.1% 0.1% 2.9% 2.4% 13.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 6.5% 6.5% 35.8% Logistic Regression 0.3% 2.6% 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% 2.9% 0.6% 2.3% 0.8% 4.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/21/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 90 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 1.5% 1.0% 12.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.9% 0.7% 8.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 1.8% 1.8% 22.2% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 1.1% 0.2% 1.1% 0.3% 1.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/21/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 91 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A 0.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 2.5% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.4% 0.1% 1.4% 0.9% 4.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A 0.4% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/21/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 109 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 3.3% 6.1% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 3.3% 0.4% 2.1% 0.0% 4.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.2% 4.0% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.1% 0.2% 1.4% 0.0% 3.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 3.2% 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 7.1% Logistic Regression 2.2% 7.7% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.3% 0.8% 2.4% 0.0% 1.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/21/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 94 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.4% 3.0% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 0.3% 1.3% 0.5% 4.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.9% 2.6% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 3.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.6% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 1.1% 0.7% 7.7% Logistic Regression 1.3% 4.8% 2.4% 2.2% 2.2% 2.3% 0.6% 1.5% 0.4% 1.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/20/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 115 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A 0.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.8% 4.7% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 1.7% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A 0.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/20/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 110 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 2.0% 4.0% 2.6% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 0.3% 1.5% 0.0% 3.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.3% 3.2% 1.7% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 0.1% 1.0% 0.0% 2.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.4% 2.1% 2.1% 1.6% 1.6% 2.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 6.2% Logistic Regression 1.6% 5.8% 3.1% 2.9% 2.9% 2.3% 0.6% 1.7% 0.0% 1.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/20/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 108 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 3.4% 4.9% 3.4% 3.0% 3.0% 2.4% 0.3% 0.9% 0.0% 1.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.2% 3.8% 2.2% 2.0% 2.0% 1.6% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.7% 3.3% 3.3% 2.7% 2.7% 2.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2.0% Logistic Regression 2.0% 6.6% 3.5% 3.4% 3.4% 2.6% 0.7% 1.4% 0.0% 0.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/20/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 114 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 3.7% 6.5% 3.9% 3.3% 3.2% 3.0% 0.7% 0.9% 0.3% 1.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.4% 4.3% 2.6% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 1.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.7% 4.0% 3.3% 2.1% 2.1% 1.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.2% Logistic Regression 2.6% 9.0% 4.6% 4.4% 4.3% 4.7% 1.3% 1.5% 0.5% 1.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/19/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 109 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.7% 2.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 1.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 1.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 2.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% Logistic Regression 0.9% 3.7% 1.7% 1.5% 1.5% 2.2% 0.5% 0.9% 0.3% 1.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/19/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 97 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 3.3% 5.4% 3.2% 2.8% 2.2% 2.7% 0.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.1% 4.3% 2.1% 1.9% 1.5% 1.7% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.2% 3.3% 2.7% 2.1% 0.9% 1.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 2.4% 7.5% 3.7% 3.6% 3.6% 4.2% 1.2% 1.2% 0.5% 1.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/19/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 112 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 11.2% 17.1% 12.3% 12.3% 9.0% 11.2% 3.8% 2.0% 1.6% 2.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.4% 11.3% 8.2% 8.2% 5.9% 7.5% 2.5% 1.3% 1.0% 1.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 14.8% 13.2% 11.4% 11.3% 5.2% 5.3% 0.0% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% Logistic Regression 7.6% 20.9% 13.3% 13.3% 12.7% 17.2% 7.6% 3.3% 2.3% 3.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/19/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 95 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 2.6% 8.1% 4.1% 3.9% 3.0% 6.1% 2.1% 1.4% 0.9% 1.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.7% 6.7% 2.7% 2.6% 2.0% 4.0% 1.4% 0.9% 0.6% 0.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.4% 4.2% 2.0% 1.7% 0.6% 1.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% Logistic Regression 2.8% 11.9% 6.2% 6.2% 5.5% 11.2% 4.2% 2.4% 1.6% 2.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/18/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 121 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.0% 4.6% 2.1% 1.7% 1.6% 4.6% 1.3% 2.5% 1.2% 5.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.6% 3.9% 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 0.8% 1.6% 0.8% 3.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.8% 1.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 1.1% 0.0% 1.8% 1.0% 6.9% Logistic Regression 1.1% 7.5% 3.4% 2.9% 2.9% 8.1% 2.6% 3.1% 1.5% 4.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/18/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 104 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 1.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 1.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 1.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 1.5% Logistic Regression 0.6% 2.6% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 2.5% 0.6% 0.9% 0.4% 1.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/18/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 128 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.9% 3.1% 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 2.6% 0.7% 1.4% 1.0% 4.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.6% 3.3% 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 1.7% 0.4% 0.9% 0.6% 3.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.8% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 1.1% 1.1% 6.3% Logistic Regression 1.1% 5.3% 2.2% 1.9% 1.9% 4.8% 1.3% 1.6% 0.9% 2.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/18/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 139 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 3.1% 13.4% 6.6% 5.9% 5.1% 7.3% 2.3% 2.8% 1.5% 4.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.0% 9.4% 4.3% 3.9% 3.4% 4.8% 1.5% 1.8% 1.0% 3.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.9% 7.2% 2.8% 1.5% 0.7% 1.6% 0.0% 1.7% 0.9% 5.2% Logistic Regression 4.3% 19.5% 10.4% 10.3% 9.5% 13.0% 4.6% 3.8% 2.1% 4.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/17/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 139 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.1% 6.0% 2.4% 2.0% 2.0% 3.6% 0.7% 2.9% 1.2% 7.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 4.6% 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 2.4% 0.4% 1.9% 0.8% 5.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 2.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 1.5% 0.0% 2.7% 1.3% 11.7% Logistic Regression 1.5% 9.5% 3.9% 3.5% 3.5% 5.7% 1.4% 3.0% 1.1% 3.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/17/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 140 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 2.1% 8.8% 4.2% 3.5% 3.0% 4.1% 0.7% 2.0% 1.1% 5.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.3% 5.9% 2.8% 2.3% 2.0% 2.7% 0.5% 1.3% 0.7% 3.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.9% 5.5% 3.1% 1.7% 0.8% 2.4% 0.0% 1.4% 1.3% 7.5% Logistic Regression 2.2% 12.1% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 5.8% 1.5% 2.6% 0.9% 2.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/17/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 150 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 4.0% 15.8% 8.6% 7.3% 7.3% 9.0% 1.7% 4.2% 2.9% 8.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.6% 12.3% 5.7% 4.8% 4.8% 6.0% 1.1% 2.8% 1.9% 5.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.5% 11.4% 7.2% 4.7% 4.7% 6.6% 0.0% 4.0% 3.8% 12.4% Logistic Regression 3.5% 20.2% 9.9% 9.9% 9.9% 11.4% 3.4% 4.5% 2.0% 4.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/17/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 144 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 6.1% 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 3.1% 0.5% 2.1% 1.4% 10.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 4.8% 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 2.1% 0.3% 1.4% 0.9% 7.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 3.2% 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 1.6% 0.0% 2.1% 2.1% 18.6% Logistic Regression 0.8% 9.0% 3.0% 2.8% 2.8% 4.7% 0.9% 2.1% 0.7% 2.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/16/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 143 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.8% 11.8% 4.8% 3.9% 3.9% 6.9% 1.0% 3.9% 2.2% 11.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.2% 8.8% 3.2% 2.6% 2.6% 4.5% 0.6% 2.6% 1.4% 7.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.7% 8.2% 3.8% 2.1% 2.1% 5.3% 0.0% 4.2% 3.0% 19.0% Logistic Regression 1.9% 15.3% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% 8.4% 1.9% 3.7% 1.3% 3.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/16/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 138 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.7% 12.6% 5.1% 4.1% 4.1% 8.9% 1.5% 5.2% 3.4% 13.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 8.4% 3.3% 2.7% 2.7% 5.9% 1.0% 3.4% 2.3% 9.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.2% 7.6% 3.2% 1.6% 1.6% 5.4% 0.0% 5.3% 4.6% 23.4% Logistic Regression 2.1% 17.6% 6.9% 6.7% 6.7% 12.3% 3.1% 5.1% 2.1% 4.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/16/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 141 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.7% 17.3% 7.2% 5.8% 5.8% 12.4% 2.3% 7.8% 4.0% 9.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 12.4% 4.7% 3.8% 3.8% 8.2% 1.5% 5.1% 2.6% 6.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.2% 11.5% 4.5% 2.0% 2.0% 7.9% 0.0% 7.5% 4.8% 15.0% Logistic Regression 2.1% 23.1% 9.8% 9.5% 9.5% 16.9% 4.6% 8.0% 3.1% 4.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Anggrek at 01/16/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 144 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.6% 16.0% 7.1% 5.7% 5.7% 15.4% 3.1% 11.6% 5.5% 15.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 10.8% 4.7% 3.8% 3.8% 10.2% 2.0% 7.7% 3.6% 10.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.2% 9.6% 4.2% 1.9% 1.9% 10.4% 0.0% 12.5% 6.6% 24.9% Logistic Regression 1.9% 22.4% 10.0% 9.5% 9.5% 20.4% 6.2% 10.8% 4.3% 6.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Six at 01/15/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 143 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 2.4% 19.2% 8.7% 7.1% 7.1% 21.2% 4.9% 17.5% 9.7% 20.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.5% 13.8% 5.8% 4.7% 4.7% 14.1% 3.2% 11.7% 6.4% 13.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.3% 13.0% 6.2% 3.0% 3.0% 14.6% 0.0% 18.8% 11.3% 30.5% Logistic Regression 2.5% 25.4% 11.1% 11.1% 11.1% 27.9% 9.8% 16.3% 8.1% 10.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Six at 01/15/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 145 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.4% 32.2% 17.4% 5.1% 2.0% 14.2% 9.1% 22.5% 11.9% 13.7% RIPA Consensus 1.4% 13.2% 5.4% 4.2% 4.1% 16.5% 4.5% 13.8% 7.8% 21.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.0% 19.5% 9.4% 4.5% 3.4% 15.7% 6.0% 16.7% 9.1% 18.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.2% 7.6% 3.1% 1.2% 1.0% 8.0% 0.0% 12.7% 6.8% 27.6% Logistic Regression 1.5% 18.7% 7.7% 7.2% 7.2% 25.1% 9.0% 15.0% 8.7% 15.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   06s at 01/15/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 144 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------