Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Kirrily at 02/03/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 69 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Kirrily at 02/03/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 85 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Kirrily at 02/03/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 106 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Kirrily at 02/02/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.6% 5.4% 2.2% 1.7% 1.6% 4.4% 1.2% 2.5% 1.9% 2.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 1.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2.5% 2.5% 3.7% Logistic Regression 1.1% 9.7% 4.0% 3.1% 3.1% 8.3% 2.4% 2.5% 1.2% 1.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Kirrily at 02/02/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 145 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 2.0% 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.7% 3.5% 1.4% 1.1% 1.1% 2.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Kirrily at 02/02/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 138 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.8% 5.6% 2.7% 2.5% 2.1% 3.8% 1.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 4.3% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 2.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.5% 10.2% 5.1% 4.5% 4.2% 7.5% 2.6% 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Kirrily at 02/02/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 163 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 3.4% 14.8% 8.8% 7.7% 6.8% 13.7% 4.0% 5.1% 2.3% 0.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.2% 10.7% 5.8% 5.1% 4.5% 9.1% 2.6% 3.4% 1.5% 0.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.2% 7.1% 5.7% 3.6% 1.7% 6.9% 0.0% 4.0% 1.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 3.6% 22.5% 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% 20.5% 8.0% 6.3% 3.5% 1.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Kirrily at 02/01/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 168 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 2.2% 11.5% 6.0% 5.4% 4.3% 11.3% 3.2% 4.9% 2.0% 1.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.5% 8.7% 4.0% 3.5% 2.8% 7.5% 2.1% 3.2% 1.3% 0.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.0% 5.2% 3.6% 2.8% 0.7% 4.9% 0.0% 3.6% 0.6% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.5% 17.8% 8.3% 7.9% 7.9% 17.6% 6.3% 6.2% 3.3% 2.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Kirrily at 02/01/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 152 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 5.7% 2.2% 1.8% 1.6% 6.7% 1.6% 5.0% 2.5% 8.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 4.6% 1.5% 1.2% 1.0% 4.4% 1.0% 3.3% 1.6% 5.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 1.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 3.7% 2.1% 9.8% Logistic Regression 1.0% 10.0% 3.7% 3.1% 3.1% 11.8% 3.3% 6.3% 2.9% 6.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Kirrily at 02/01/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 148 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.5% 11.0% 4.8% 4.5% 3.6% 16.2% 5.4% 10.7% 6.9% 9.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 7.5% 3.1% 3.0% 2.4% 10.7% 3.5% 7.1% 4.6% 6.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.0% 4.0% 2.1% 2.1% 0.2% 5.2% 0.0% 8.5% 5.2% 9.3% Logistic Regression 2.0% 17.9% 7.5% 7.0% 7.0% 27.2% 10.7% 12.9% 8.6% 9.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Kirrily at 02/01/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 166 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 5.2% 7.0% 1.3% 1.2% 2.6% 2.8% 20.3% 4.2% 2.4% RIPA Consensus 1.0% 7.7% 3.2% 2.9% 2.4% 11.5% 3.2% 8.2% 4.9% 8.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.8% 6.8% 4.4% 2.3% 2.0% 8.5% 3.0% 12.2% 4.7% 6.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 2.3% 1.4% 1.1% 0.2% 3.6% 0.0% 6.3% 3.9% 7.8% Logistic Regression 1.2% 13.1% 5.0% 4.6% 4.6% 19.3% 6.4% 10.1% 6.0% 8.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Kirrily at 01/28/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 38 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Kirrily at 01/28/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 40 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Kirrily at 01/28/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 38 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Kirrily at 01/27/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 48 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.6% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Kirrily at 01/26/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 30 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Kirrily at 01/25/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 76 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Kirrily at 01/25/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 114 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.6% 4.5% 2.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 0.6% 3.5% 0.1% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.9% 1.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Kirrily at 01/25/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 124 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.9% 24.0% 7.4% 12.1% 10.1% 12.7% 1.5% 4.4% 0.7% 1.1% RIPA Consensus 12.6% 13.3% 10.1% 10.1% 6.5% 7.1% 2.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 10.0% 16.8% 9.1% 10.7% 7.7% 9.0% 2.0% 2.3% 0.2% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 14.3% 8.9% 8.9% 8.9% 2.2% 3.2% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 10.8% 17.6% 11.2% 11.2% 10.8% 11.1% 4.5% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Kirrily at 01/25/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 132 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.5% 3.5% 1.1% 1.0% 0.2% 1.1% 0.1% 1.3% 0.0% 1.2% RIPA Consensus 7.5% 7.2% 4.2% 4.0% 3.0% 2.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.5% 5.9% 3.1% 3.0% 2.0% 2.1% 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 10.2% 4.3% 4.0% 3.6% 1.5% 0.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.8% 10.1% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.5% 1.2% 0.7% 0.5% 1.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Kirrily at 01/24/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 139 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.7% 11.1% 4.7% 2.1% 1.5% 6.7% 1.2% 7.0% 1.1% 2.9% RIPA Consensus 8.0% 23.1% 15.2% 14.3% 11.6% 12.1% 3.7% 4.4% 2.8% 3.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.6% 19.1% 11.6% 10.2% 8.2% 10.2% 2.8% 5.2% 2.1% 3.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 7.9% 13.9% 9.8% 8.0% 3.0% 5.8% 0.0% 4.6% 2.7% 2.6% Logistic Regression 8.2% 32.4% 20.5% 20.5% 20.1% 18.4% 7.3% 4.2% 2.8% 3.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Kirrily at 01/24/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 131 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.6% 11.4% 11.4% 6.6% 3.0% 10.3% 4.6% 16.7% 4.8% 4.2% RIPA Consensus 4.0% 13.9% 7.8% 7.1% 5.9% 6.5% 1.8% 1.4% 0.7% 1.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.5% 13.0% 9.0% 6.9% 4.9% 7.7% 2.6% 6.5% 2.0% 2.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.8% 6.8% 4.6% 3.5% 1.2% 2.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 1.5% Logistic Regression 4.2% 21.0% 11.0% 10.7% 10.6% 10.9% 3.5% 2.1% 1.2% 2.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Seven at 01/24/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 135 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 5.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 2.0% 9.5% 4.2% 3.0% 3.0% 6.7% 1.2% 2.5% 1.5% 4.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.3% 8.2% 2.9% 2.0% 2.0% 4.5% 0.7% 1.7% 1.0% 2.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.1% 5.3% 3.5% 1.4% 1.4% 3.6% 0.0% 2.0% 1.5% 5.5% Logistic Regression 1.8% 13.7% 4.8% 4.7% 4.7% 9.8% 2.3% 3.1% 1.4% 2.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Seven at 01/23/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 144 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 4.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.8% 8.7% 3.2% 2.3% 2.1% 8.1% 1.5% 6.2% 3.1% 5.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 7.2% 2.1% 1.5% 1.4% 5.4% 1.0% 4.1% 2.1% 3.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 5.0% 2.1% 0.7% 0.4% 4.5% 0.0% 6.0% 3.4% 6.9% Logistic Regression 1.0% 12.3% 4.4% 3.9% 3.9% 11.7% 3.1% 6.4% 2.8% 4.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Seven at 01/23/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 143 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 4.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.1% 10.6% 4.1% 2.9% 2.6% 10.6% 2.0% 10.1% 5.6% 12.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 8.6% 2.8% 1.9% 1.7% 7.1% 1.3% 6.7% 3.8% 8.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.9% 6.8% 2.9% 1.0% 0.4% 6.9% 0.0% 10.9% 7.3% 17.1% Logistic Regression 1.4% 14.5% 5.4% 4.8% 4.8% 14.2% 4.0% 9.2% 3.9% 7.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Seven at 01/23/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 138 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 8.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 2.8% 19.0% 7.9% 5.8% 4.8% 14.8% 3.4% 10.8% 6.8% 13.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.8% 15.4% 5.3% 3.9% 3.2% 9.9% 2.2% 7.2% 4.5% 8.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.4% 14.7% 6.4% 2.9% 0.8% 8.5% 0.0% 10.5% 7.6% 15.9% Logistic Regression 3.2% 23.3% 9.5% 8.8% 8.8% 21.1% 6.7% 11.1% 6.0% 11.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Seven at 01/23/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 141 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 2.9% 19.3% 8.3% 5.8% 5.1% 16.4% 3.2% 13.6% 9.1% 21.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.7% 14.8% 7.2% 2.8% 1.3% 11.7% 0.0% 15.5% 11.9% 27.5% Logistic Regression 3.2% 23.8% 9.4% 8.9% 8.9% 21.1% 6.4% 11.8% 6.3% 15.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------