Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Nine intensity image current Nine RI diff image

 


Nine at 02/02/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 138 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nine at 02/02/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 147 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nine at 02/02/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 152 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nine at 02/02/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 154 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.5% 11.7% 4.6% 3.7% 3.5% 6.1% 1.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 7.8% 3.0% 2.4% 2.3% 4.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.0% 5.8% 1.8% 0.7% 0.5% 1.7% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 2.1% 17.5% 7.4% 6.6% 6.5% 10.6% 2.7% 1.3% 0.8% 0.3%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nine at 02/01/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 157 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.7% 3.8% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 2.9% 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 2.9% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 1.9% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.9% 6.5% 2.1% 1.7% 1.7% 5.2% 1.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.4%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nine at 02/01/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 152 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 2.2% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 1.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 2.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.5% 3.8% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 2.5% 0.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.3%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nine at 02/01/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 153 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 2.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 1.7% 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 1.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 1.0%
Logistic Regression 0.5% 3.6% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 3.0% 0.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.5%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nine at 02/01/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 163 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 2.5% 0.0% 0.5% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 2.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 1.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 1.2% 0.2% 1.0% 0.0% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.5% 3.5% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 2.8% 0.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.5%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nine at 01/31/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 151 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 1.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4%
Logistic Regression 0.5% 2.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 2.4% 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.6%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nine at 01/31/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 1.4% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 1.4%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.9%
Logistic Regression 0.4% 2.9% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 2.5% 0.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.9%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nine at 01/31/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 147 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.9% 4.5% 1.5% 1.2% 1.1% 4.0% 0.6% 1.8% 0.9% 4.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.6% 3.0% 1.0% 0.8% 0.7% 2.6% 0.4% 1.2% 0.6% 2.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.9% 1.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 1.4% 0.0% 1.2% 0.6% 5.5%
Logistic Regression 0.9% 7.4% 2.2% 2.0% 2.0% 6.5% 1.3% 2.5% 1.1% 2.7%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nine at 01/31/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 148 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.8% 8.4% 3.2% 2.7% 2.2% 6.5% 1.4% 2.4% 0.9% 2.8%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.2% 5.6% 2.1% 1.7% 1.4% 4.3% 0.9% 1.5% 0.6% 1.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.6% 4.2% 1.8% 1.3% 0.3% 2.1% 0.0% 1.4% 0.3% 2.8%
Logistic Regression 2.0% 12.6% 4.6% 4.1% 4.1% 10.9% 2.8% 3.4% 1.5% 2.7%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------