Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Eleven intensity image current Eleven RI diff image

 


Osai at 02/09/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 140 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 2.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.6%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 1.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 1.3% 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 2.5%
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Osai at 02/08/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 144 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.2% 2.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 1.9% 0.2% 1.3% 0.4% 4.4%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 4.1%
Logistic Regression 0.3% 4.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 3.4% 0.5% 1.9% 0.7% 4.8%
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Osai at 02/08/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 148 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 1.3% 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 1.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.1%
Logistic Regression 0.2% 3.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 2.3% 0.3% 1.1% 0.4% 1.3%
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Osai at 02/08/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 145 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 1.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 1.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.7%
Logistic Regression 0.2% 3.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 2.1% 0.3% 1.2% 0.3% 1.6%
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Osai at 02/08/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 145 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.3% 2.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 1.6% 0.2% 1.4% 0.3% 2.8%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.9% 0.1% 3.3%
Logistic Regression 0.2% 3.0% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 2.1% 0.3% 1.8% 0.5% 2.2%
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Osai at 02/07/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 136 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 6.3% 30.4% 15.7% 14.1% 11.6% 19.3% 5.0% 11.4% 4.0% 8.8%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.1% 20.8% 10.5% 9.4% 7.7% 12.8% 3.3% 7.5% 2.6% 5.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 8.0% 27.0% 11.6% 8.3% 4.8% 11.9% 0.0% 8.0% 1.5% 7.7%
Logistic Regression 4.5% 33.8% 19.9% 19.9% 18.5% 26.7% 10.0% 14.7% 6.5% 9.8%
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Eleven at 02/07/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 143 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 2.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 5.7% 25.0% 10.3% 8.9% 6.9% 13.3% 2.8% 6.1% 2.3% 7.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.8% 17.5% 6.9% 5.9% 4.6% 8.8% 1.8% 4.0% 1.5% 5.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 7.4% 23.1% 8.3% 5.4% 2.2% 7.7% 0.0% 4.6% 0.6% 6.7%
Logistic Regression 4.0% 26.8% 12.4% 12.4% 11.7% 18.8% 5.6% 7.6% 4.0% 8.7%
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Eleven at 02/07/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 161 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 2.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 4.9% 21.4% 8.2% 7.3% 5.2% 12.2% 3.1% 4.2% 1.8% 2.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.2% 15.0% 5.5% 4.9% 3.4% 8.1% 2.0% 2.8% 1.2% 1.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.0% 18.3% 5.7% 4.0% 0.8% 4.3% 0.0% 2.1% 0.1% 0.9%
Logistic Regression 4.8% 24.5% 10.7% 10.7% 9.6% 20.1% 6.1% 6.3% 3.5% 4.4%
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Eleven at 02/07/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 151 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 4.3% 35.4% 14.7% 12.6% 10.1% 26.4% 8.0% 25.2% 12.8% 35.4%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.9% 24.7% 9.7% 8.4% 6.6% 17.6% 5.3% 16.8% 8.5% 23.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.4% 30.0% 8.7% 4.6% 1.2% 13.5% 0.0% 25.4% 8.4% 37.4%
Logistic Regression 5.3% 40.7% 20.7% 20.7% 18.9% 39.3% 16.0% 25.0% 17.2% 33.5%
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Eleven at 02/06/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 167 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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