Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Twelve at 02/11/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 130 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 5.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 6.6% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.9% 0.3% 3.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twelve at 02/11/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 130 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twelve at 02/11/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 132 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twelve at 02/10/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 147 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.4% 2.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 2.0% 0.3% 1.4% 0.5% 6.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 6.7% Logistic Regression 0.6% 4.3% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 3.7% 0.7% 2.2% 0.9% 6.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twelve at 02/10/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 142 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.1% 2.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 1.8% 0.3% 1.4% 0.5% 6.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 8.1% Logistic Regression 0.3% 3.6% 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% 3.5% 0.6% 2.2% 0.8% 5.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twelve at 02/10/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 138 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.4% 3.9% 1.2% 1.0% 0.9% 3.1% 0.6% 2.2% 0.6% 5.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 1.4% 0.2% 4.7% Logistic Regression 0.6% 6.9% 2.2% 1.9% 1.9% 5.4% 1.1% 2.9% 1.0% 5.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twelve at 02/10/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 147 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 1.7% 15.9% 7.0% 6.4% 5.3% 13.2% 3.9% 9.3% 3.4% 9.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.0% 8.4% 2.8% 2.2% 0.3% 4.7% 0.0% 7.5% 1.4% 7.1% Logistic Regression 2.3% 23.5% 11.3% 10.6% 10.3% 21.8% 7.8% 11.2% 5.5% 12.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twelve at 02/09/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 149 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.9% 7.4% 2.9% 2.5% 2.2% 6.3% 1.6% 4.2% 1.2% 6.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 2.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 1.2% 0.0% 2.6% 0.1% 6.2% Logistic Regression 1.3% 12.0% 5.0% 4.6% 4.3% 11.5% 3.3% 5.8% 2.2% 7.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twelve at 02/09/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 149 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 1.7% 16.3% 7.3% 6.4% 5.4% 14.4% 4.0% 11.5% 5.4% 18.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.0% 8.9% 3.5% 2.3% 0.3% 6.4% 0.0% 9.9% 4.7% 21.7% Logistic Regression 2.3% 23.6% 11.2% 10.5% 10.5% 22.4% 8.0% 13.2% 6.1% 14.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twelve at 02/09/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 149 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 1.4% 7.9% 2.9% 2.3% 2.1% 4.5% 0.9% 1.8% 0.6% 4.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.0% 3.9% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 1.7% 0.0% 0.9% 0.2% 6.0% Logistic Regression 1.9% 11.8% 4.4% 3.9% 3.9% 7.2% 1.7% 2.7% 0.9% 3.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twelve at 02/09/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 148 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.7% 6.1% 2.1% 1.6% 1.5% 3.1% 0.5% 2.1% 0.5% 4.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 2.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 1.4% 0.3% 6.9% Logistic Regression 1.1% 9.6% 3.4% 3.0% 3.0% 5.0% 1.0% 2.7% 0.8% 2.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twelve at 02/08/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 161 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 1.1% 9.2% 3.7% 2.5% 2.4% 6.0% 0.8% 4.4% 1.6% 5.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.1% 6.1% 3.0% 1.0% 0.7% 4.7% 0.0% 4.6% 1.8% 7.7% Logistic Regression 1.1% 12.3% 4.3% 4.0% 4.0% 7.3% 1.6% 4.1% 1.3% 3.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twelve at 02/08/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 158 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 2.7% 17.7% 8.2% 6.7% 5.3% 14.7% 3.3% 9.3% 4.1% 8.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.8% 12.9% 5.5% 4.4% 3.5% 9.8% 2.1% 6.2% 2.7% 5.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.7% 12.5% 6.4% 3.7% 1.0% 9.2% 0.0% 8.9% 3.7% 8.8% Logistic Regression 2.7% 22.9% 10.1% 9.7% 9.7% 20.2% 6.6% 9.7% 4.4% 8.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twelve at 02/08/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 154 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 4.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 6.6% 27.8% 15.6% 13.2% 11.4% 30.2% 10.8% 16.6% 8.1% 7.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.4% 19.9% 10.4% 8.8% 7.6% 20.2% 7.2% 11.0% 5.4% 4.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 6.9% 19.3% 11.8% 7.2% 3.7% 17.5% 0.0% 14.7% 5.3% 4.1% Logistic Regression 6.4% 36.2% 19.5% 19.2% 19.2% 43.0% 21.7% 18.5% 10.9% 10.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twelve at 02/08/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 141 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 11.3% 45.9% 29.6% 26.6% 23.3% 45.9% 22.4% 36.5% 25.9% 32.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 8.9% 32.8% 18.5% 12.5% 6.0% 26.6% 0.0% 33.8% 20.8% 31.2% Logistic Regression 13.8% 59.0% 40.8% 40.8% 40.6% 65.3% 44.9% 39.1% 31.1% 33.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------