Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Thirteen intensity image current Thirteen RI diff image

 


Thirteen at 02/20/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 31 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Thirteen at 02/19/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 20 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Djoungou at 02/19/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 42 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Djoungou at 02/19/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 95 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Djoungou at 02/18/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 94 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Djoungou at 02/18/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 115 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Djoungou at 02/18/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.7% 2.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 11.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 10.6% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 20.9% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 2.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Djoungou at 02/18/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 148 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 25.3% 9.1% 16.0% 2.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 20.1% 6.3% 3.2% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 21.8% 7.2% 7.5% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 34.4% 8.6% 4.7% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 5.8% 4.1% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Djoungou at 02/17/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 141 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 23.7% 14.8% 10.0% 13.2% 2.3% 0.8% 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 30.9% 20.2% 13.8% 13.8% 8.4% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 28.5% 18.4% 12.5% 13.5% 6.3% 6.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 50.0% 25.1% 18.1% 18.1% 8.5% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 11.9% 15.4% 9.4% 9.4% 8.3% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Djoungou at 02/17/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 147 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 20.8% 29.5% 27.1% 17.3% 3.5% 4.1% 1.5% 3.8% 0.3% 0.0% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Djoungou at 02/17/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 145 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 13.5% 40.5% 29.4% 17.0% 9.7% 16.0% 8.5% 23.9% 5.3% 0.1% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Djoungou at 02/17/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 146 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 19.9% 42.6% 38.8% 19.2% 16.6% 23.8% 13.0% 28.8% 4.5% 0.1% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Djoungou at 02/16/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 17.1% 49.0% 40.9% 27.9% 20.3% 41.1% 21.1% 47.6% 21.4% 2.2% RIPA Consensus 33.2% 57.0% 45.6% 43.7% 36.2% 25.5% 4.8% 5.8% 1.2% 0.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 27.8% 54.3% 44.0% 38.4% 30.8% 30.7% 10.2% 19.7% 7.8% 0.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 39.5% 54.9% 40.5% 36.7% 22.9% 26.2% 0.0% 4.7% 0.6% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 26.9% 59.1% 50.7% 50.7% 49.4% 24.9% 9.6% 6.8% 1.7% 0.2%
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Djoungou at 02/16/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 143 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 12.8% 41.6% 29.2% 17.6% 11.0% 34.8% 19.4% 45.8% 15.5% 3.5% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Djoungou at 02/16/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 141 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 13.6% 45.7% 27.1% 17.0% 12.5% 33.3% 19.2% 35.2% 11.3% 13.7% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Djoungou at 02/16/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 10.7% 48.7% 35.3% 20.3% 23.0% 35.1% 26.9% 43.4% 14.4% 14.2% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Thirteen at 02/15/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 138 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.4% 47.0% 29.2% 20.7% 16.6% 31.0% 20.8% 43.6% 24.4% 34.2% RIPA Consensus 7.3% 45.8% 28.3% 26.3% 21.3% 42.7% 19.6% 32.0% 18.6% 14.8%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.0% 46.1% 28.5% 24.4% 19.7% 38.8% 20.0% 35.8% 20.5% 21.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.5% 32.8% 14.8% 10.8% 2.2% 24.2% 0.0% 30.9% 12.0% 12.7%
Logistic Regression 10.2% 58.7% 41.8% 41.8% 40.4% 61.2% 39.2% 33.1% 25.2% 16.8%
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