Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Lincoln at 02/25/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 47 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 1.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lincoln at 02/24/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 57 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lincoln at 02/24/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 58 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lincoln at 02/24/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 106 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lincoln at 02/24/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 1.9% 0.0% 1.7% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.8% 1.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lincoln at 02/23/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 132 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.7% 5.3% 2.2% 0.4% 0.3% 1.1% 0.2% 6.4% 0.1% 2.8% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 1.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.3% 2.9% 1.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.8% 0.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.9% 3.0% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lincoln at 02/23/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 130 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.0% 4.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.9% 0.1% 1.6% 0.0% 6.8% RIPA Consensus 2.2% 5.5% 2.3% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.8% 5.2% 1.8% 1.4% 1.4% 1.6% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 2.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.9% 1.8% 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.5% 9.1% 3.6% 3.4% 3.4% 3.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lincoln at 02/23/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 123 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.1% 7.4% 4.6% 3.1% 2.0% 2.1% 1.4% 3.2% 0.3% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.9% 4.0% 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.0% 5.1% 2.5% 1.9% 1.5% 1.7% 0.6% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.4% 7.1% 2.8% 2.4% 2.4% 3.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lincoln at 02/23/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 130 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 1.7% 8.1% 3.5% 2.9% 2.9% 4.9% 1.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.3% 3.0% 1.4% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.1% 13.2% 5.5% 5.2% 5.2% 9.1% 2.7% 0.8% 0.7% 0.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lincoln at 02/22/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 115 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.1% 7.4% 3.3% 2.7% 2.6% 4.7% 1.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 5.4% 2.2% 1.8% 1.7% 3.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.0% 13.3% 6.2% 5.2% 5.2% 9.1% 2.8% 1.1% 0.8% 0.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lincoln at 02/22/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 114 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 4.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 4.6% 18.8% 10.5% 9.9% 8.3% 14.3% 4.8% 3.0% 1.6% 0.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.0% 14.1% 7.0% 6.6% 5.5% 9.5% 3.2% 2.0% 1.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.5% 10.0% 6.2% 4.9% 1.7% 4.9% 0.0% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.7% 27.7% 14.8% 14.8% 14.8% 23.7% 9.7% 4.7% 2.9% 0.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lincoln at 02/22/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 120 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 4.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.6% 11.4% 5.1% 5.0% 3.9% 10.1% 3.5% 3.2% 1.5% 0.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 9.0% 3.4% 3.3% 2.6% 6.8% 2.3% 2.1% 1.0% 0.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.2% 4.9% 1.9% 1.9% 0.2% 1.6% 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.1% 18.0% 8.3% 8.1% 7.7% 18.7% 6.9% 5.6% 2.8% 1.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lincoln at 02/22/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 133 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 5.3% 1.9% 1.6% 1.5% 5.8% 1.6% 2.9% 0.9% 1.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 5.3% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 3.9% 1.0% 1.9% 0.6% 1.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 1.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 1.5% Logistic Regression 0.8% 9.3% 3.5% 3.0% 3.0% 10.9% 3.2% 4.7% 1.8% 2.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lincoln at 02/21/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 128 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.8% 9.5% 3.7% 3.2% 2.8% 9.6% 3.1% 5.8% 1.9% 3.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 7.5% 2.5% 2.1% 1.8% 6.3% 2.0% 3.8% 1.2% 2.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 3.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 3.1% 0.2% 2.2% Logistic Regression 1.3% 15.5% 6.7% 6.0% 5.5% 18.0% 6.2% 8.5% 3.6% 5.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lincoln at 02/21/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 135 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.9% 39.0% 29.4% 18.9% 13.6% 19.2% 13.4% 41.1% 17.3% 21.8% RIPA Consensus 1.2% 8.4% 3.4% 3.0% 2.3% 9.5% 2.9% 5.2% 2.2% 6.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.1% 18.5% 12.0% 8.3% 6.1% 12.7% 6.3% 17.1% 7.2% 11.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.8% 3.4% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 2.9% 0.6% 4.6% Logistic Regression 1.6% 13.4% 5.3% 4.7% 4.7% 17.2% 5.8% 7.5% 3.8% 8.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lincoln at 02/21/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 136 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.7% 20.8% 23.0% 4.5% 6.6% 12.1% 6.3% 24.9% 8.0% 11.5% RIPA Consensus 1.7% 8.1% 3.3% 2.9% 2.3% 8.8% 2.7% 3.9% 1.8% 7.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.0% 12.3% 9.8% 3.4% 3.7% 9.8% 3.8% 10.9% 3.8% 8.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.0% 3.0% 1.3% 1.2% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 1.6% 0.5% 6.0% Logistic Regression 2.3% 13.2% 5.3% 4.6% 4.6% 16.1% 5.3% 6.2% 3.1% 9.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lincoln at 02/21/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 161 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.5% 9.2% 11.2% 2.5% 2.0% 8.0% 1.9% 10.2% 5.7% 9.1% RIPA Consensus 1.0% 5.9% 2.2% 1.7% 1.6% 8.8% 2.4% 5.6% 2.3% 13.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.2% 7.0% 5.2% 2.0% 1.7% 8.5% 2.1% 7.1% 3.4% 12.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 4.4% 1.3% 13.0% Logistic Regression 1.7% 10.9% 4.0% 3.3% 3.3% 16.1% 4.7% 6.7% 3.4% 13.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lincoln at 02/20/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 157 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 3.7% 1.3% 1.1% 1.0% 4.1% 1.0% 3.1% 1.4% 6.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 3.6% 0.9% 0.7% 0.6% 2.6% 0.6% 2.0% 0.9% 4.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2.0% 0.9% 7.3% Logistic Regression 0.6% 6.8% 2.4% 2.0% 2.0% 7.6% 2.0% 4.1% 1.9% 6.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lincoln at 02/20/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 148 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 5.9% 2.5% 2.1% 1.9% 7.0% 2.1% 5.4% 2.5% 10.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 5.0% 1.7% 1.4% 1.2% 4.7% 1.4% 3.5% 1.8% 7.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 3.9% 1.7% 11.0% Logistic Regression 0.9% 10.9% 4.5% 3.7% 3.7% 13.1% 4.2% 6.8% 3.3% 10.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lincoln at 02/20/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 130 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 5.0% 2.0% 1.7% 1.5% 7.9% 2.5% 4.6% 2.2% 10.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 4.7% 1.3% 1.1% 1.0% 5.3% 1.6% 3.0% 1.6% 6.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 2.6% 1.3% 10.4% Logistic Regression 1.0% 9.3% 3.6% 3.0% 3.0% 14.9% 4.9% 6.6% 3.2% 9.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lincoln at 02/20/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 144 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 5.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.8% 9.5% 4.1% 3.3% 2.9% 17.4% 6.3% 10.5% 7.1% 17.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.2% 8.1% 2.8% 2.2% 1.9% 11.6% 4.2% 7.0% 4.7% 11.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.0% 2.8% 1.7% 1.0% 0.2% 4.6% 0.0% 8.6% 5.8% 17.1% Logistic Regression 2.6% 16.3% 6.6% 5.6% 5.6% 30.2% 12.6% 12.4% 8.4% 18.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lincoln at 02/17/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 134 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.6% 7.9% 5.7% 2.2% 1.5% 3.8% 0.9% 4.2% 0.6% 9.5% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lincoln at 02/16/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 152 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.1% 19.5% 10.2% 4.1% 3.4% 5.4% 2.2% 4.8% 2.7% 13.8% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 3.7% 1.4% 1.0% 1.0% 4.6% 1.2% 5.2% 1.6% 12.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.1% 8.9% 4.3% 2.0% 1.7% 4.8% 1.5% 5.0% 1.9% 12.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 3.8% 0.9% 15.1% Logistic Regression 0.4% 6.8% 2.5% 1.9% 1.9% 8.7% 2.3% 6.6% 2.3% 9.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lincoln at 02/16/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 149 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.2% 8.0% 6.3% 2.8% 2.4% 3.8% 1.5% 6.4% 2.6% 12.4% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lincoln at 02/16/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 144 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.3% 16.9% 6.9% 6.0% 3.4% 10.3% 3.1% 10.4% 2.8% 17.2% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fourteen at 02/16/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 154 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.6% 14.7% 6.6% 1.3% 0.3% 20.2% 2.2% 10.6% 4.1% 22.6% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fourteen at 02/15/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 151 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.5% 32.2% 17.7% 10.1% 4.7% 25.2% 13.1% 17.9% 7.5% 25.4% RIPA Consensus 3.4% 19.4% 8.8% 7.1% 5.8% 16.2% 4.7% 9.2% 4.4% 9.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.8% 23.6% 11.7% 8.1% 5.4% 19.2% 7.5% 12.1% 5.4% 14.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.7% 12.6% 5.7% 3.4% 0.7% 7.1% 0.0% 7.2% 2.5% 6.1% Logistic Regression 4.2% 26.2% 12.0% 10.9% 10.9% 25.3% 9.4% 11.3% 6.3% 12.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------