Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Eleanor at 02/25/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 87 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eleanor at 02/24/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 86 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eleanor at 02/24/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 85 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eleanor at 02/24/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 71 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eleanor at 02/24/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 63 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 1.2% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eleanor at 02/23/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 63 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eleanor at 02/23/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 67 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eleanor at 02/23/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 79 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.6% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eleanor at 02/22/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 86 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eleanor at 02/22/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 91 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eleanor at 02/22/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 108 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 4.9% 2.1% 1.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.2% 1.5% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 6.7% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.1% 3.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eleanor at 02/22/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 108 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 9.0% 8.6% 4.7% 4.7% 2.9% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.9% 5.9% 3.1% 3.1% 1.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 9.4% 5.6% 3.3% 3.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 8.5% 11.6% 6.1% 6.1% 5.3% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eleanor at 02/21/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 143 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 2.1% 7.2% 3.2% 2.7% 2.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.4% 5.3% 2.1% 1.8% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.5% 3.6% 1.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.7% 10.8% 5.1% 4.8% 4.6% 1.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eleanor at 02/21/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 150 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.7% 26.6% 17.2% 9.1% 7.7% 17.2% 5.6% 25.8% 5.2% 1.4% RIPA Consensus 1.8% 8.0% 3.7% 2.8% 2.8% 1.9% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.1% 14.2% 8.2% 4.8% 4.4% 7.0% 2.0% 8.7% 1.8% 0.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.9% 4.8% 2.8% 1.2% 1.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.8% 11.2% 4.6% 4.4% 4.4% 3.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eleanor at 02/21/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 148 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.5% 16.4% 9.1% 4.1% 2.8% 14.6% 5.8% 19.2% 6.1% 4.7% RIPA Consensus 1.7% 13.1% 6.0% 4.7% 4.2% 6.8% 1.2% 1.4% 0.5% 0.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.0% 14.1% 7.0% 4.5% 3.6% 9.4% 2.7% 7.3% 2.3% 2.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.7% 8.5% 4.0% 2.0% 0.9% 4.5% 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.9% Logistic Regression 1.8% 17.7% 7.9% 7.4% 7.4% 9.2% 2.4% 2.0% 0.8% 0.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eleanor at 02/21/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 151 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.4% 16.6% 10.8% 4.1% 4.9% 18.4% 12.9% 17.3% 4.6% 13.9% RIPA Consensus 1.1% 11.6% 4.4% 3.2% 3.1% 6.7% 1.1% 4.0% 1.1% 2.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.2% 13.3% 6.5% 3.5% 3.6% 10.5% 5.0% 8.4% 2.2% 6.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.9% 8.1% 2.4% 0.8% 0.6% 4.1% 0.0% 3.6% 0.8% 2.9% Logistic Regression 1.3% 15.2% 6.4% 5.7% 5.6% 9.2% 2.3% 4.4% 1.4% 1.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eleanor at 02/20/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 153 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 5.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 2.8% 21.2% 9.8% 7.6% 6.7% 14.2% 3.3% 8.7% 3.7% 3.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.8% 15.9% 6.5% 5.1% 4.4% 9.5% 2.1% 5.8% 2.4% 2.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.4% 16.2% 6.6% 3.0% 1.3% 8.8% 0.0% 7.8% 3.3% 4.5% Logistic Regression 3.2% 26.2% 12.9% 12.3% 12.0% 19.6% 6.6% 9.7% 4.1% 3.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eleanor at 02/20/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 154 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 4.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 10.0% 50.9% 28.8% 24.6% 21.6% 31.3% 8.9% 27.2% 12.6% 14.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.6% 35.4% 19.2% 16.4% 14.4% 20.9% 5.9% 18.1% 8.5% 9.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 10.0% 48.6% 20.4% 11.9% 8.3% 23.3% 0.0% 25.7% 10.7% 16.0% Logistic Regression 10.0% 53.2% 37.3% 37.3% 34.9% 39.3% 17.8% 28.7% 14.6% 12.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eleanor at 02/20/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 156 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 8.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 25.6% 71.1% 52.1% 44.9% 43.1% 51.5% 19.9% 35.7% 23.8% 30.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 17.0% 50.3% 34.7% 29.9% 28.7% 34.4% 13.2% 23.7% 15.9% 20.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 28.9% 70.5% 44.9% 30.5% 28.8% 40.4% 0.0% 33.3% 19.5% 29.3% Logistic Regression 22.3% 71.7% 59.2% 59.2% 57.4% 62.7% 39.8% 38.0% 28.1% 31.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Sixteen at 02/19/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 157 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 12.8% 52.6% 36.1% 21.5% 24.8% 33.3% 20.2% 41.7% 12.8% 25.6% RIPA Consensus 13.3% 60.5% 40.1% 34.3% 33.9% 44.7% 16.8% 27.8% 17.1% 12.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 13.1% 57.8% 38.7% 30.0% 30.8% 40.9% 17.9% 32.4% 15.6% 16.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 12.6% 55.5% 29.7% 18.2% 18.2% 32.3% 0.0% 24.9% 14.3% 12.8% Logistic Regression 14.0% 65.5% 50.4% 50.4% 49.5% 57.1% 33.7% 30.7% 19.9% 11.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Sixteen at 02/19/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 160 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 11.0% 42.4% 22.5% 10.5% 12.3% 29.8% 16.8% 31.9% 16.5% 22.1% RIPA Consensus 2.4% 29.1% 13.4% 10.6% 9.7% 20.8% 5.9% 16.1% 8.1% 25.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.3% 33.5% 16.4% 10.5% 10.5% 23.8% 9.5% 21.4% 10.9% 24.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.3% 20.8% 6.9% 2.4% 1.2% 10.2% 0.0% 15.5% 8.0% 30.7% Logistic Regression 3.6% 37.5% 19.9% 18.8% 18.2% 31.4% 11.8% 16.8% 8.3% 19.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Sixteen at 02/19/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 161 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 12.9% 39.8% 24.0% 17.8% 14.8% 32.9% 12.2% 19.9% 7.4% 21.0% RIPA Consensus 3.7% 33.4% 15.5% 12.9% 12.9% 30.1% 8.7% 26.0% 17.2% 37.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.7% 35.5% 18.3% 14.5% 13.5% 31.0% 9.8% 23.9% 13.9% 32.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.0% 26.5% 10.6% 6.2% 6.2% 19.6% 0.0% 28.2% 19.4% 45.3% Logistic Regression 4.4% 40.2% 20.4% 19.7% 19.7% 40.6% 17.4% 23.8% 15.0% 30.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Sixteen at 02/19/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 163 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 22.3% 47.9% 35.9% 25.0% 28.1% 38.7% 30.9% 34.0% 34.5% 25.7% RIPA Consensus 10.2% 55.6% 33.6% 29.8% 26.2% 52.7% 26.4% 43.1% 30.5% 55.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 14.1% 53.0% 34.4% 28.2% 26.8% 48.0% 27.9% 40.1% 31.8% 45.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 8.6% 46.7% 20.1% 12.5% 7.5% 33.1% 0.0% 41.7% 23.5% 54.9% Logistic Regression 11.7% 64.4% 47.2% 47.2% 44.8% 72.3% 52.9% 44.6% 37.5% 57.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------