Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Seventeen intensity image current Seventeen RI diff image

 


Seventeen at 03/14/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 54 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Seventeen at 03/14/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 87 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Seventeen at 03/14/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 107 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Filipo at 03/13/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 113 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Filipo at 03/13/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 115 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Filipo at 03/13/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 93 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Filipo at 03/13/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 92 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Filipo at 03/12/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 86 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Filipo at 03/12/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 92 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Filipo at 03/12/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 141 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 5.1% 7.4% 4.7% 4.4% 3.5% 5.6% 1.2% 1.2% 0.8% 0.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.3% 5.5% 3.1% 2.9% 2.3% 3.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.7% 3.8% 3.7% 3.0% 1.2% 3.8% 0.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 4.4% 11.1% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% 7.4% 2.3% 1.8% 1.0% 0.2%
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Filipo at 03/11/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 144 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 19.7% 26.3% 20.6% 19.8% 18.2% 14.4% 3.8% 4.4% 2.9% 0.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 13.1% 18.2% 13.7% 13.1% 12.1% 9.6% 2.5% 2.9% 1.9% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 25.2% 20.3% 18.4% 16.7% 13.6% 10.3% 0.0% 3.5% 2.4% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 14.2% 32.3% 22.8% 22.8% 22.8% 18.5% 7.7% 5.4% 3.5% 0.8%
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Filipo at 03/11/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 143 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 6.2% 27.4% 17.7% 15.3% 14.5% 18.8% 6.3% 8.9% 6.2% 3.8%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.1% 20.5% 11.8% 10.2% 9.7% 12.5% 4.2% 5.9% 4.1% 2.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.1% 16.7% 10.8% 6.0% 4.5% 9.9% 0.0% 8.3% 6.0% 4.8%
Logistic Regression 7.3% 38.1% 24.6% 24.6% 24.6% 27.7% 12.7% 9.5% 6.3% 2.9%
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Filipo at 03/11/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 145 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 4.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 10.4% 33.1% 23.1% 21.6% 18.8% 25.6% 9.2% 10.8% 8.0% 10.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.9% 23.6% 15.4% 14.4% 12.5% 17.0% 6.1% 7.2% 5.3% 7.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 10.5% 21.0% 15.8% 12.8% 7.2% 14.0% 0.0% 9.5% 6.1% 11.1%
Logistic Regression 10.3% 45.1% 30.5% 30.5% 30.5% 37.1% 18.5% 12.1% 9.8% 10.3%
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Seventeen at 03/11/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 154 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 5.7% 20.0% 11.4% 10.2% 8.6% 18.7% 6.1% 5.8% 4.7% 6.9%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.8% 14.7% 7.6% 6.8% 5.7% 12.5% 4.0% 3.8% 3.1% 4.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.7% 10.9% 8.1% 5.6% 2.5% 8.4% 0.0% 5.1% 3.7% 5.2%
Logistic Regression 5.7% 29.2% 14.8% 14.8% 14.8% 29.1% 12.2% 6.5% 5.7% 8.5%
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Seventeen at 03/10/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 152 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 2.0% 12.6% 5.7% 5.3% 4.1% 11.8% 3.4% 4.7% 3.1% 7.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.3% 10.0% 3.7% 3.5% 2.7% 7.8% 2.2% 3.1% 2.0% 4.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.6% 6.0% 3.2% 2.7% 0.4% 4.0% 0.0% 3.7% 2.2% 6.5%
Logistic Regression 2.4% 19.3% 8.1% 7.9% 7.9% 19.5% 6.8% 5.7% 4.0% 8.4%
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