Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Neville at 03/24/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 63 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Neville at 03/24/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 58 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Neville at 03/24/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 50 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Neville at 03/23/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 55 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Neville at 03/23/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 48 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Neville at 03/23/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 56 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Neville at 03/22/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 65 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Neville at 03/22/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 81 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Neville at 03/22/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 81 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Neville at 03/22/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 62 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Neville at 03/21/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Neville at 03/21/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 70 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 14.3% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 22.4% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 6.1% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Neville at 03/21/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 74 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 29.6% 17.7% 16.0% 16.0% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 19.7% 12.4% 10.7% 10.7% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 44.8% 18.2% 18.2% 18.2% 18.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 14.5% 17.2% 13.9% 13.9% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Neville at 03/21/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 74 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 16.2% 12.7% 10.8% 10.8% 10.8% 5.7% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 10.7% 8.9% 7.2% 7.2% 7.2% 3.8% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 24.0% 14.2% 14.2% 14.2% 14.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 8.4% 11.2% 7.4% 7.4% 7.4% 7.2% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Neville at 03/20/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 93 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 15.4% 12.7% 9.9% 9.9% 9.9% 9.2% 3.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 10.2% 8.4% 6.6% 6.6% 6.6% 6.1% 1.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 21.0% 11.4% 11.4% 11.4% 11.4% 5.3% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 9.8% 14.0% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 13.0% 5.9% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Neville at 03/20/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 87 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 9.3% 12.1% 8.5% 7.9% 7.9% 12.3% 5.3% 5.7% 5.1% 1.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.1% 8.0% 5.6% 5.2% 5.2% 8.2% 3.5% 3.8% 3.4% 0.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 11.0% 7.2% 7.2% 6.1% 6.1% 4.3% 0.0% 5.7% 5.7% 0.3% Logistic Regression 7.5% 16.9% 9.7% 9.7% 9.7% 20.3% 10.5% 5.7% 4.6% 2.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 03/20/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 92 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 4.7% 11.9% 7.3% 6.0% 6.0% 16.2% 8.3% 7.6% 7.8% 3.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.1% 9.2% 4.8% 4.0% 4.0% 10.7% 5.5% 5.0% 5.1% 2.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.6% 4.7% 4.0% 2.1% 2.1% 3.2% 0.0% 7.6% 7.6% 1.9% Logistic Regression 5.8% 19.1% 10.6% 10.0% 10.0% 29.1% 16.5% 7.6% 7.9% 5.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 03/20/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 100 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.5% 5.1% 2.5% 2.1% 2.1% 8.7% 3.3% 4.4% 3.9% 2.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 4.2% 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 5.8% 2.2% 2.9% 2.6% 1.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 1.4% 0.0% 4.4% 4.4% 1.8% Logistic Regression 2.1% 9.3% 4.2% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0% 6.7% 4.4% 3.4% 4.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 03/19/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 121 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.7% 3.9% 1.6% 1.3% 1.3% 6.2% 2.0% 3.3% 3.0% 4.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 3.4% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 4.1% 1.3% 2.1% 2.0% 2.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 3.3% 3.3% 3.5% Logistic Regression 1.3% 7.2% 2.9% 2.5% 2.5% 11.7% 4.1% 3.3% 2.8% 4.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 03/19/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 124 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.7% 4.1% 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 5.8% 1.8% 2.9% 2.9% 5.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 2.7% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 3.8% 1.2% 1.9% 1.9% 3.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 3.0% 3.0% 4.9% Logistic Regression 1.1% 7.6% 3.0% 2.6% 2.6% 10.8% 3.6% 2.9% 2.7% 5.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 03/19/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 119 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.1% 7.1% 3.1% 2.5% 2.5% 10.7% 3.5% 7.5% 6.7% 18.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 4.7% 2.0% 1.6% 1.6% 7.1% 2.3% 5.0% 4.5% 12.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 2.4% 0.0% 7.6% 7.4% 22.1% Logistic Regression 1.9% 12.7% 5.3% 4.7% 4.7% 19.0% 7.0% 7.5% 6.0% 14.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 03/19/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 102 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.9% 5.2% 2.2% 1.9% 1.8% 7.2% 2.5% 2.8% 1.9% 3.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 4.3% 1.5% 1.2% 1.1% 4.8% 1.6% 1.8% 1.3% 2.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 1.7% 0.7% 1.5% Logistic Regression 1.4% 9.7% 4.1% 3.5% 3.5% 13.8% 5.0% 3.8% 3.1% 5.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 03/18/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 131 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.4% 9.1% 4.1% 3.6% 3.3% 10.9% 3.8% 6.0% 3.6% 7.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.9% 6.8% 2.7% 2.4% 2.1% 7.2% 2.5% 3.9% 2.4% 5.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.6% 2.2% 1.0% 0.7% 0.1% 2.1% 0.0% 4.5% 1.7% 4.7% Logistic Regression 2.3% 16.0% 7.2% 6.5% 6.5% 19.6% 7.7% 7.4% 5.4% 10.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 03/18/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 132 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 4.8% 2.0% 1.7% 1.6% 6.1% 1.8% 4.7% 1.7% 7.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 4.2% 1.3% 1.1% 1.0% 4.1% 1.2% 3.1% 1.1% 5.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 2.9% 0.5% 5.9% Logistic Regression 1.0% 9.0% 3.7% 3.1% 3.1% 11.5% 3.6% 6.4% 2.9% 9.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 03/18/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 132 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 5.4% 2.2% 1.9% 1.8% 5.6% 1.6% 4.8% 1.5% 7.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 3.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.1% 3.7% 1.0% 3.1% 1.0% 4.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 2.4% 0.3% 4.8% Logistic Regression 0.9% 9.9% 4.1% 3.5% 3.5% 10.4% 3.2% 7.1% 2.8% 9.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 03/18/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 132 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 2.9% 19.1% 10.7% 10.6% 8.6% 16.5% 6.6% 12.2% 4.9% 12.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.9% 13.5% 7.1% 7.0% 5.7% 11.0% 4.3% 8.1% 3.2% 8.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.2% 7.6% 3.3% 3.2% 0.3% 3.9% 0.0% 6.8% 1.0% 8.1% Logistic Regression 4.6% 30.5% 18.1% 18.0% 16.9% 29.1% 13.2% 17.5% 8.8% 16.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 03/17/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 128 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 4.3% 23.0% 13.8% 13.0% 11.3% 25.0% 11.9% 19.3% 8.7% 14.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.8% 16.3% 9.2% 8.6% 7.5% 16.6% 7.9% 12.9% 5.8% 9.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.8% 9.3% 4.2% 2.6% 1.0% 7.7% 0.0% 14.3% 2.8% 8.9% Logistic Regression 6.8% 36.6% 23.4% 23.3% 21.7% 42.3% 23.8% 24.4% 14.6% 20.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 03/17/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 130 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.7% 10.8% 5.5% 4.7% 4.4% 10.4% 3.2% 8.7% 3.7% 12.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.1% 8.1% 3.6% 3.1% 2.9% 6.9% 2.1% 5.8% 2.5% 8.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.9% 3.4% 2.0% 1.2% 0.5% 3.1% 0.0% 6.0% 2.2% 12.4% Logistic Regression 2.5% 18.2% 9.0% 8.3% 8.3% 17.7% 6.4% 11.4% 5.2% 13.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 03/17/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 131 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.1% 8.3% 4.1% 3.6% 3.2% 8.6% 2.5% 7.2% 2.6% 10.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 6.4% 2.7% 2.4% 2.1% 5.7% 1.6% 4.7% 1.7% 6.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 2.2% 1.4% 1.1% 0.3% 2.6% 0.0% 5.1% 1.3% 8.5% Logistic Regression 1.6% 14.5% 6.8% 6.2% 6.2% 14.6% 4.9% 9.2% 4.0% 11.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 03/17/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 128 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 2.9% 16.6% 9.0% 7.6% 7.4% 17.6% 6.3% 10.5% 4.8% 10.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.9% 12.1% 6.0% 5.1% 4.9% 11.7% 4.2% 7.0% 3.2% 7.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.9% 6.4% 4.2% 2.1% 1.6% 5.6% 0.0% 6.6% 1.5% 5.0% Logistic Regression 3.9% 26.8% 13.8% 13.2% 13.2% 29.7% 12.7% 14.4% 8.1% 16.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 03/16/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 131 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 2.9% 15.8% 8.5% 7.1% 6.6% 20.2% 7.8% 13.5% 6.7% 18.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.9% 11.6% 5.7% 4.7% 4.3% 13.4% 5.1% 9.0% 4.5% 12.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.1% 6.5% 4.1% 2.3% 1.1% 7.2% 0.0% 10.8% 3.8% 15.2% Logistic Regression 3.8% 25.0% 13.0% 12.0% 12.0% 33.1% 15.5% 16.3% 9.7% 21.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 03/16/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 127 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.6% 13.5% 6.8% 5.4% 5.3% 13.6% 4.4% 10.3% 4.1% 14.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 9.0% 4.5% 3.6% 3.5% 9.0% 2.9% 6.8% 2.7% 9.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.9% 5.4% 2.6% 1.0% 0.9% 4.4% 0.0% 7.9% 2.4% 14.0% Logistic Regression 2.3% 21.7% 10.9% 9.8% 9.8% 22.7% 8.7% 12.6% 5.8% 14.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 03/16/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 125 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.7% 5.7% 2.3% 2.1% 2.1% 7.2% 1.6% 5.9% 2.2% 9.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 4.7% 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 4.8% 1.0% 3.9% 1.4% 6.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 1.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 2.7% 0.0% 4.5% 1.4% 8.8% Logistic Regression 1.0% 10.1% 3.8% 3.5% 3.5% 11.7% 3.2% 7.3% 2.9% 9.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 03/16/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 128 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.8% 5.5% 2.2% 1.9% 1.9% 7.5% 1.8% 6.4% 2.2% 10.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 4.7% 1.5% 1.2% 1.2% 5.0% 1.2% 4.2% 1.4% 6.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 1.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 2.2% 0.0% 4.4% 0.8% 8.2% Logistic Regression 1.2% 9.9% 3.7% 3.4% 3.4% 12.8% 3.7% 8.3% 3.5% 12.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 03/15/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 132 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.7% 3.8% 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 4.5% 0.9% 3.6% 1.1% 4.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 3.5% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 3.0% 0.6% 2.4% 0.7% 3.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 1.1% 0.0% 2.1% 0.2% 2.8% Logistic Regression 1.0% 6.9% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 8.0% 1.8% 5.1% 1.9% 6.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 03/15/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 129 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.9% 6.8% 3.0% 2.7% 2.4% 6.9% 1.9% 6.1% 2.0% 9.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.6% 4.5% 2.0% 1.8% 1.5% 4.5% 1.2% 4.0% 1.4% 6.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 1.5% 0.8% 0.7% 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 3.6% 0.3% 6.2% Logistic Regression 1.3% 12.0% 5.2% 4.7% 4.7% 12.2% 3.8% 8.6% 3.8% 12.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 03/14/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 148 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.0% 9.0% 3.8% 3.4% 3.4% 12.6% 3.0% 13.7% 6.0% 19.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.6% 6.2% 2.5% 2.2% 2.2% 8.4% 2.0% 9.1% 4.0% 12.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.6% 2.9% 1.6% 1.0% 1.0% 6.0% 0.0% 12.1% 5.0% 19.8% Logistic Regression 1.4% 15.1% 6.0% 5.7% 5.7% 19.2% 6.1% 15.2% 7.0% 19.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 03/14/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 160 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 5.3% 1.9% 1.5% 1.5% 6.3% 1.2% 4.6% 1.3% 4.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 3.5% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 4.2% 0.8% 3.1% 0.9% 2.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 1.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 2.6% 0.0% 3.4% 0.5% 2.4% Logistic Regression 0.8% 8.9% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 10.0% 2.5% 5.9% 2.2% 6.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 03/14/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 156 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 5.7% 1.9% 1.5% 1.5% 6.8% 1.2% 6.3% 2.2% 9.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 4.7% 1.2% 0.9% 0.9% 4.6% 0.8% 4.2% 1.5% 6.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% 3.1% 0.0% 5.6% 1.6% 8.9% Logistic Regression 0.7% 9.2% 2.9% 2.6% 2.6% 10.6% 2.5% 7.0% 2.8% 10.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 03/13/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 157 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.8% 8.0% 2.9% 2.1% 2.1% 9.8% 2.2% 9.8% 3.1% 11.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 6.1% 1.9% 1.4% 1.3% 6.5% 1.4% 6.5% 2.1% 7.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 3.7% 1.2% 0.4% 0.3% 3.9% 0.0% 9.1% 2.0% 9.3% Logistic Regression 1.0% 12.4% 4.5% 3.8% 3.8% 15.7% 4.4% 10.4% 4.2% 13.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 03/13/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 153 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 3.8% 1.2% 0.9% 0.9% 4.3% 0.7% 4.3% 1.4% 8.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 3.1% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 2.8% 0.4% 2.8% 0.9% 5.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 2.0% 0.0% 4.2% 1.2% 8.7% Logistic Regression 0.6% 6.3% 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 6.6% 1.3% 4.4% 1.6% 7.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 03/13/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 144 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 4.0% 1.3% 1.0% 0.9% 5.2% 0.9% 4.7% 1.4% 7.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 3.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 3.4% 0.6% 3.1% 0.9% 5.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 4.4% 1.2% 10.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 6.7% 2.1% 1.8% 1.8% 8.3% 1.9% 5.0% 1.6% 5.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 03/13/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 149 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 1.0% 0.1% 1.1% 0.3% 5.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 3.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.9% 0.1% 7.5% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 1.7% 0.2% 1.4% 0.4% 3.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 03/12/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 151 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 2.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 2.6% 0.3% 2.0% 0.5% 3.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 2.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 1.7% 0.1% 1.3% 0.3% 2.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 1.7% 0.3% 3.9% Logistic Regression 0.4% 4.0% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 3.7% 0.6% 2.3% 0.7% 3.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 03/12/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 162 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.8% 4.7% 1.5% 1.1% 1.1% 3.8% 0.5% 3.3% 0.7% 7.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 3.3% 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% 2.5% 0.3% 2.1% 0.5% 5.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.8% 2.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 2.1% 0.0% 3.4% 0.5% 9.9% Logistic Regression 0.8% 7.0% 2.2% 1.9% 1.9% 5.5% 1.0% 3.1% 1.0% 5.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 03/12/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 161 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.9% 5.7% 2.1% 1.5% 1.4% 5.3% 0.7% 6.6% 2.8% 17.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.6% 4.3% 1.4% 1.0% 0.9% 3.5% 0.5% 4.3% 1.8% 11.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.9% 2.9% 1.4% 0.5% 0.4% 3.4% 0.0% 7.6% 3.8% 27.5% Logistic Regression 0.9% 8.5% 2.8% 2.5% 2.5% 7.2% 1.5% 5.5% 1.8% 7.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 03/12/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 161 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 2.9% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 2.1% 0.3% 3.7% 1.4% 15.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 2.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 1.4% 0.1% 2.4% 0.9% 10.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 4.1% 1.8% 25.2% Logistic Regression 0.5% 5.1% 1.4% 1.2% 1.2% 3.5% 0.6% 3.3% 1.0% 6.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 03/11/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 164 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.7% 3.5% 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 2.2% 0.3% 1.1% 0.3% 4.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 2.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 1.4% 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 3.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.6% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 5.1% Logistic Regression 0.8% 5.6% 1.7% 1.5% 1.5% 3.7% 0.6% 1.6% 0.5% 3.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 03/11/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 156 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.5% 7.7% 3.3% 2.3% 2.1% 6.9% 1.0% 3.3% 2.0% 5.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 5.8% 2.2% 1.5% 1.4% 4.6% 0.6% 2.2% 1.3% 3.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.7% 4.5% 3.0% 1.3% 0.8% 4.7% 0.0% 3.3% 2.6% 7.7% Logistic Regression 1.3% 10.9% 3.6% 3.4% 3.4% 9.1% 2.0% 3.4% 1.5% 3.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   18s at 03/11/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 155 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------