Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Megan at 03/19/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 136 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 1.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 1.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 1.2% 0.2% 1.2% 0.2% 2.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Megan at 03/19/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 155 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 1.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.1% 1.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.9% 0.2% 1.1% 0.2% 1.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Megan at 03/18/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 165 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.2% 2.4% 1.0% 0.8% 0.7% 1.2% 0.2% 1.4% 0.2% 1.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Megan at 03/18/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 154 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Megan at 03/18/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 151 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Megan at 03/18/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 156 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.8% 1.6% 0.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.8% 2.6% 1.5% 1.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Megan at 03/17/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 162 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 3.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 11.3% 12.5% 10.5% 10.5% 5.0% 7.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.5% 9.4% 7.0% 7.0% 3.3% 5.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 16.2% 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% 2.2% 11.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 6.4% 13.3% 9.1% 9.1% 7.9% 3.9% 1.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Megan at 03/17/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 148 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 2.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 27.4% 19.2% 16.8% 16.8% 8.9% 15.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 18.3% 13.6% 11.2% 11.2% 5.9% 9.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 42.9% 21.3% 21.3% 21.3% 6.9% 22.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 12.0% 17.1% 12.3% 12.3% 10.8% 7.1% 2.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Megan at 03/17/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 147 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 3.1% 0.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 48.8% 50.7% 49.7% 49.7% 29.9% 27.0% 5.0% 3.7% 0.0% 0.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 32.5% 34.8% 33.1% 33.3% 19.9% 18.0% 3.3% 2.5% 0.0% 0.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 65.9% 55.8% 55.8% 55.8% 19.9% 32.1% 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 31.8% 45.6% 43.6% 43.6% 39.9% 21.9% 10.1% 5.1% 0.0% 1.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Megan at 03/17/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 154 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 54.9% 67.3% 67.1% 67.1% 54.4% 40.0% 10.1% 12.5% 3.7% 2.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 36.6% 44.9% 44.8% 44.8% 36.3% 26.7% 6.7% 8.3% 2.4% 1.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 71.6% 68.1% 68.1% 68.1% 46.2% 42.7% 0.0% 10.4% 1.9% 1.1% Logistic Regression 38.2% 66.5% 66.0% 66.0% 62.6% 37.4% 20.1% 14.7% 5.5% 3.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Megan at 03/16/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 151 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 5.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 46.1% 57.3% 55.8% 55.8% 37.4% 29.8% 9.7% 10.1% 2.7% 2.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 30.7% 40.0% 37.2% 37.2% 24.9% 19.9% 6.4% 6.7% 1.7% 1.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 58.6% 53.2% 53.2% 53.2% 20.2% 23.1% 0.0% 6.3% 0.2% 0.1% Logistic Regression 33.5% 61.4% 58.4% 58.4% 54.6% 36.6% 19.4% 13.9% 5.1% 4.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Megan at 03/16/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 145 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 14.2% 33.6% 25.3% 25.3% 16.7% 16.8% 5.2% 6.2% 1.4% 1.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.4% 23.5% 16.8% 16.9% 11.1% 11.2% 3.4% 4.1% 0.9% 1.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 13.8% 24.1% 17.5% 17.5% 3.6% 9.6% 0.0% 3.8% 0.1% 0.4% Logistic Regression 14.6% 43.0% 33.1% 33.1% 29.9% 24.0% 10.3% 8.5% 2.7% 3.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nineteen at 03/16/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 143 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 5.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 15.2% 37.6% 25.2% 23.9% 18.0% 25.4% 7.6% 12.6% 5.5% 8.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 10.1% 26.8% 16.8% 16.0% 11.9% 16.9% 5.0% 8.3% 3.6% 5.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 16.0% 30.1% 20.3% 17.8% 6.6% 17.4% 0.0% 11.6% 4.6% 7.5% Logistic Regression 14.4% 45.1% 30.1% 30.1% 29.3% 33.3% 15.2% 13.5% 6.3% 9.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nineteen at 03/16/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 141 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 5.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 29.2% 58.1% 44.8% 40.0% 34.6% 44.9% 16.0% 22.1% 12.5% 16.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 19.5% 40.4% 29.8% 26.7% 23.0% 29.9% 10.6% 14.7% 8.3% 11.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 34.5% 52.9% 41.6% 32.0% 21.6% 35.8% 0.0% 22.5% 11.5% 15.5% Logistic Regression 24.0% 63.3% 48.0% 48.0% 47.6% 54.0% 32.0% 21.7% 13.6% 17.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nineteen at 03/15/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 146 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 5.5% 28.7% 15.5% 11.4% 10.4% 22.4% 6.2% 15.1% 7.2% 17.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.6% 20.0% 10.3% 7.5% 6.9% 15.0% 4.1% 10.0% 4.9% 11.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.2% 20.8% 11.6% 5.1% 3.1% 13.3% 0.0% 15.2% 6.9% 18.6% Logistic Regression 5.7% 36.6% 19.5% 17.7% 17.7% 31.6% 12.5% 14.9% 7.6% 16.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nineteen at 03/15/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 142 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 2.9% 20.7% 10.0% 7.0% 6.3% 22.5% 5.8% 16.1% 10.2% 17.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.9% 13.8% 6.6% 4.6% 4.2% 15.0% 3.8% 10.7% 6.7% 11.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.7% 13.7% 7.6% 2.9% 1.7% 13.8% 0.0% 18.6% 12.5% 21.2% Logistic Regression 3.2% 27.8% 12.4% 11.0% 11.0% 31.2% 11.6% 13.7% 7.8% 14.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------