Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Twenty intensity image current Twenty RI diff image

 


Gamane at 03/30/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 146 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 6.7% 2.1% 1.6% 1.5% 5.5% 1.3% 1.1% 0.6% 1.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 4.5% 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 3.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 1.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 2.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 1.2%
Logistic Regression 1.2% 11.4% 3.8% 3.0% 3.0% 10.5% 2.6% 1.9% 1.1% 1.9%
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Twenty at 03/29/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 147 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 4.2% 1.2% 0.9% 0.9% 4.0% 0.7% 1.0% 0.6% 1.4%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 3.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 2.6% 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 1.4%
Logistic Regression 0.7% 7.6% 2.1% 1.7% 1.7% 7.5% 1.5% 1.7% 1.0% 1.5%
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Twenty at 03/29/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 152 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 3.9% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 4.2% 0.7% 1.1% 0.6% 1.9%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 3.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 2.8% 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 1.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 2.3%
Logistic Regression 0.6% 7.1% 1.9% 1.6% 1.6% 7.8% 1.5% 1.7% 1.0% 1.5%
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Twenty at 03/29/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 162 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 4.1% 1.2% 0.9% 0.9% 5.4% 1.1% 3.0% 1.4% 3.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 3.3% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 3.5% 0.7% 2.0% 0.9% 2.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 2.6% 1.0% 4.2%
Logistic Regression 0.6% 7.5% 2.2% 1.8% 1.8% 10.1% 2.2% 3.5% 1.8% 2.2%
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Gamane at 03/28/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 158 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 3.7% 1.1% 0.8% 0.8% 3.9% 0.8% 3.2% 1.0% 7.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 2.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 2.6% 0.5% 2.1% 0.7% 4.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1.8% 0.2% 6.4%
Logistic Regression 0.5% 6.6% 2.0% 1.7% 1.7% 7.4% 1.6% 4.6% 1.9% 8.2%
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Gamane at 03/28/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 161 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 5.6% 1.7% 1.4% 1.3% 5.0% 1.0% 5.5% 2.2% 7.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 3.8% 1.1% 0.9% 0.8% 3.3% 0.6% 3.6% 1.4% 4.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 2.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 5.1% 2.1% 10.1%
Logistic Regression 0.6% 9.1% 3.0% 2.6% 2.6% 8.5% 2.0% 5.8% 2.3% 4.2%
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Gamane at 03/28/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 3.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% 1.8% 0.3% 2.6% 0.4% 4.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 2.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 1.2% 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 3.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2.4% 0.2% 7.0%
Logistic Regression 0.4% 5.3% 1.8% 1.5% 1.5% 3.1% 0.6% 2.8% 0.6% 2.0%
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Gamane at 03/28/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 160 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 8.0% 2.6% 2.0% 2.0% 5.4% 0.8% 9.1% 2.0% 17.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 5.8% 1.7% 1.3% 1.3% 3.6% 0.5% 6.0% 1.3% 11.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 4.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 9.7% 2.2% 28.7%
Logistic Regression 0.5% 11.6% 4.6% 3.9% 3.9% 7.5% 1.7% 8.4% 1.8% 6.0%
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Gamane at 03/27/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 155 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 2.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% 3.0% 0.2% 6.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 2.0% 0.1% 4.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 3.3% 0.1% 11.3%
Logistic Regression 0.2% 3.5% 1.4% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 0.2% 2.8% 0.2% 1.0%
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Gamane at 03/27/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 153 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A 0.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 1.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 1.6% 0.1% 6.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A 0.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Gamane at 03/27/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 153 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 4.7% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 36.7% 65.8% 57.8% 57.8% 56.9% 38.1% 5.8% 16.4% 5.4% 6.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 24.4% 45.4% 38.5% 38.6% 37.9% 25.4% 3.8% 10.9% 3.5% 4.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 49.5% 70.3% 60.3% 60.3% 60.3% 47.5% 0.0% 16.5% 5.8% 8.3%
Logistic Regression 23.9% 61.3% 55.3% 55.3% 53.4% 28.7% 11.6% 16.3% 4.9% 4.8%
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Gamane at 03/27/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 159 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 4.7% 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 38.5% 58.3% 53.2% 53.2% 53.2% 45.9% 4.6% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 25.6% 40.4% 35.5% 35.7% 35.5% 30.6% 3.0% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 60.8% 66.8% 66.8% 66.8% 66.8% 67.8% 0.0% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 16.1% 49.8% 39.6% 39.6% 39.6% 24.0% 9.1% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0%
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Gamane at 03/26/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 32.6% 71.0% 59.5% 59.5% 59.5% 46.8% 11.0% 33.3% 16.6% 22.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 21.7% 47.3% 39.6% 39.8% 39.6% 31.2% 7.3% 22.2% 11.0% 14.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 44.9% 73.2% 58.9% 58.9% 58.9% 48.5% 0.0% 32.2% 16.2% 26.2%
Logistic Regression 20.2% 68.8% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% 45.1% 22.0% 34.4% 17.0% 18.0%
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Gamane at 03/26/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 7.7% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 34.9% 80.2% 66.2% 59.4% 58.3% 60.3% 25.5% 42.1% 27.8% 43.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 23.2% 56.0% 44.1% 39.6% 38.8% 40.2% 17.0% 28.0% 18.5% 29.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 42.5% 80.6% 59.2% 45.5% 44.9% 49.5% 0.0% 35.0% 18.0% 39.1%
Logistic Regression 27.3% 79.8% 73.2% 73.2% 71.6% 71.1% 51.0% 49.2% 37.5% 48.2%
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Gamane at 03/26/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 152 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 8.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 28.9% 80.0% 64.5% 59.3% 58.0% 68.5% 35.1% 54.0% 37.6% 30.4%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 19.2% 56.0% 43.0% 39.7% 38.7% 45.7% 23.4% 36.0% 25.1% 20.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 32.3% 77.8% 52.0% 41.5% 41.5% 54.3% 0.0% 46.3% 22.3% 18.8%
Logistic Regression 25.4% 82.1% 77.1% 77.1% 74.6% 82.6% 70.2% 61.7% 52.9% 42.1%
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Twenty at 03/26/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 153 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 4.9% 56.4% 29.4% 25.5% 22.3% 46.3% 19.9% 43.6% 26.7% 46.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.3% 38.9% 19.6% 17.0% 14.9% 30.9% 13.2% 29.0% 17.8% 30.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.7% 50.8% 15.3% 7.4% 4.6% 28.2% 0.0% 41.3% 15.6% 43.3%
Logistic Regression 6.2% 62.1% 43.6% 43.6% 40.1% 64.4% 39.7% 45.9% 37.8% 49.1%
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