Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Twentytwo intensity image current Twentytwo RI diff image

 


Twenty-Two at 04/12/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 136 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 1.5% 0.2% 3.1% 1.4% 17.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.1% 2.0% 0.9% 11.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 3.2% 1.7% 24.4%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 1.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 2.8% 0.4% 2.9% 1.0% 10.7%
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Paul at 04/11/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 140 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 8.5% 15.6% 9.4% 8.3% 8.3% 8.9% 2.0% 3.1% 1.5% 7.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.6% 10.3% 6.3% 5.5% 5.5% 5.9% 1.3% 2.0% 0.9% 4.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 11.7% 11.7% 9.5% 7.4% 7.4% 4.8% 0.0% 1.3% 0.5% 5.6%
Logistic Regression 5.3% 19.4% 9.2% 9.2% 9.2% 13.0% 4.1% 4.8% 2.4% 8.5%
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Twentytwo at 04/11/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 126 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 5.3% 10.9% 5.8% 5.2% 5.2% 6.1% 1.2% 1.9% 0.9% 1.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.5% 7.9% 3.9% 3.4% 3.4% 4.0% 0.8% 1.2% 0.6% 1.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 6.3% 6.5% 5.3% 4.2% 4.2% 2.9% 0.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.7%
Logistic Regression 4.2% 15.3% 6.3% 6.2% 6.2% 9.2% 2.5% 3.1% 1.4% 2.5%
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Twentytwo at 04/10/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 132 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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