Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Twentythre intensity image current Twentythre RI diff image

 


Hidaya at 05/04/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 118 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
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Hidaya at 05/04/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 135 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.4% 2.1% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2%
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Hidaya at 05/04/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 144 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A 0.6% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A 0.6% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A 0.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Hidaya at 05/03/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 141 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1%
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Hidaya at 05/03/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 140 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.8% 2.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.1% 2.6% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 1.0% 3.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.2%
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Hidaya at 05/03/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 146 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 29.7% 29.8% 25.5% 25.5% 25.1% 11.9% 1.5% 1.8% 0.6% 0.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 19.8% 20.0% 17.0% 17.0% 16.7% 7.9% 0.9% 1.2% 0.3% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 43.9% 30.7% 28.9% 28.9% 28.9% 14.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 15.5% 29.0% 22.1% 22.1% 21.2% 9.4% 2.9% 3.4% 1.0% 1.1%
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Hidaya at 05/03/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 143 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 7.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 49.9% 58.3% 55.3% 55.3% 53.5% 21.1% 4.6% 5.0% 1.3% 1.4%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 33.2% 41.2% 36.8% 36.8% 35.6% 14.1% 3.1% 3.3% 0.8% 0.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 66.7% 58.4% 53.9% 53.9% 53.9% 19.7% 0.0% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 33.0% 58.3% 56.6% 56.6% 53.1% 22.5% 9.3% 8.1% 2.5% 2.8%
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Hidaya at 05/02/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 136 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 5.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 8.7% 28.6% 15.9% 14.5% 14.1% 10.7% 2.0% 2.8% 0.8% 0.9%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.7% 20.7% 10.6% 9.6% 9.4% 7.1% 1.3% 1.8% 0.5% 0.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 11.6% 26.1% 13.9% 11.0% 11.0% 7.8% 0.0% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 5.7% 31.1% 17.9% 17.9% 17.2% 13.6% 4.0% 4.4% 1.6% 1.9%
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Hidaya at 05/02/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 146 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 4.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 7.1% 29.1% 14.4% 11.6% 11.5% 12.0% 2.3% 3.4% 1.2% 2.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.7% 20.9% 9.7% 7.7% 7.7% 8.0% 1.5% 2.3% 0.8% 1.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 9.1% 27.4% 13.2% 7.6% 7.6% 8.1% 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 1.3%
Logistic Regression 5.1% 30.9% 15.7% 15.7% 15.5% 15.9% 4.6% 5.2% 2.2% 4.0%
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Hidaya at 05/02/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 144 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 3.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 7.4% 31.1% 16.1% 13.3% 13.0% 20.4% 5.5% 9.7% 4.5% 7.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.9% 21.8% 10.8% 8.8% 8.7% 13.6% 3.6% 6.4% 3.0% 5.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 8.4% 26.3% 12.8% 7.2% 7.2% 12.0% 0.0% 7.2% 2.5% 5.3%
Logistic Regression 6.4% 36.0% 19.3% 19.3% 18.9% 28.8% 10.9% 12.2% 6.5% 9.9%
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Hidaya at 05/02/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 144 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.3% 12.0% 4.3% 3.3% 3.3% 9.9% 2.2% 6.8% 2.5% 8.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.9% 9.0% 2.8% 2.2% 2.2% 6.6% 1.4% 4.5% 1.6% 5.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.9% 7.1% 2.1% 0.9% 0.9% 4.0% 0.0% 5.9% 1.6% 8.2%
Logistic Regression 1.8% 16.9% 6.5% 5.7% 5.7% 15.9% 4.4% 7.6% 3.4% 8.2%
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Twentythre at 05/01/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.5% 13.0% 5.0% 3.5% 3.5% 12.0% 2.3% 9.4% 5.6% 13.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 10.4% 3.3% 2.3% 2.3% 8.0% 1.5% 6.2% 3.7% 8.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.5% 9.3% 4.1% 1.5% 1.5% 7.6% 0.0% 9.6% 6.4% 15.4%
Logistic Regression 1.5% 16.8% 6.0% 5.6% 5.6% 16.4% 4.6% 9.2% 4.8% 10.6%
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Twentythre at 05/01/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 151 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.3% 14.0% 5.3% 3.7% 3.5% 12.4% 2.7% 9.6% 5.8% 14.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.9% 10.6% 3.5% 2.4% 2.3% 8.2% 1.8% 6.3% 3.9% 9.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.2% 10.0% 3.8% 1.2% 0.9% 6.3% 0.0% 9.0% 6.2% 16.2%
Logistic Regression 1.5% 17.9% 6.8% 6.2% 6.2% 18.4% 5.5% 10.2% 5.5% 12.0%
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