Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Ialy at 05/22/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 147 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ialy at 05/22/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 154 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ialy at 05/22/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 156 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ialy at 05/21/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 149 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.7% 1.9% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 1.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.7% 3.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ialy at 05/21/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 148 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 3.5% 6.4% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 1.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.3% 4.8% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.6% 4.4% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.5% 8.4% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 2.3% 0.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ialy at 05/21/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 155 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 4.2% 10.1% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 2.6% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.7% 7.2% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 1.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.8% 9.2% 9.2% 9.2% 9.2% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.5% 11.1% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 3.3% 0.7% 1.2% 0.2% 0.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ialy at 05/21/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 152 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.7% 6.0% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.1% 4.3% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.0% 4.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.4% 7.6% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 2.0% 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ialy at 05/20/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 153 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 4.6% 13.5% 7.1% 6.6% 6.6% 5.0% 0.8% 1.2% 0.3% 0.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.0% 9.7% 4.7% 4.4% 4.3% 3.3% 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.7% 10.5% 6.4% 5.6% 5.6% 3.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.4% 16.6% 7.7% 7.7% 7.6% 6.5% 1.5% 2.1% 0.5% 0.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ialy at 05/20/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 147 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 3.8% 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1.8% 0.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 2.9% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 1.2% 0.1% 0.6% N/A 0.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.0% Logistic Regression 0.8% 6.2% 2.5% 2.2% 2.2% 2.7% 0.5% 1.6% 0.3% 0.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ialy at 05/20/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 148 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ialy at 05/20/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 142 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 1.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 1.2% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.7% 3.1% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ialy at 05/19/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 139 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 3.0% 6.4% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0% 2.7% 0.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.0% 4.8% 2.9% 2.6% 2.6% 1.8% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.3% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% Logistic Regression 2.7% 8.9% 4.3% 4.1% 4.1% 3.3% 0.7% 1.7% 0.3% 0.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ialy at 05/19/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 142 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.9% 1.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.6% 1.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.2% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.7% 2.7% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ialy at 05/19/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 134 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 5.7% 12.8% 8.5% 7.3% 6.8% 4.2% 1.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.7% 9.3% 5.7% 4.8% 4.5% 2.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.4% 6.9% 5.6% 3.3% 3.3% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 5.9% 18.8% 11.4% 11.4% 10.3% 7.2% 2.1% 2.0% 0.5% 0.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ialy at 05/19/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 138 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 3.5% 6.2% 3.5% 3.3% 3.3% 2.7% 0.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.3% 4.6% 2.4% 2.1% 2.1% 1.8% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.5% 2.5% 2.3% 2.1% 2.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.5% 10.0% 4.8% 4.4% 4.4% 4.7% 1.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ialy at 05/18/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 130 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 12.7% 18.5% 13.7% 13.7% 13.7% 7.8% 1.9% 1.3% 0.5% 0.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 8.4% 13.0% 9.1% 9.1% 9.1% 5.2% 1.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 15.3% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 10.0% 23.1% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5% 11.6% 3.8% 2.4% 0.9% 1.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ialy at 05/18/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 142 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 2.0% 7.2% 3.6% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 0.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.3% 5.1% 2.4% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.8% 2.9% 1.8% 1.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.3% 11.5% 5.4% 5.1% 5.0% 5.7% 1.5% 1.6% 0.5% 1.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ialy at 05/18/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 131 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 4.8% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 2.5% 0.5% 0.8% 0.2% 1.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 3.1% 1.3% 1.1% 1.0% 1.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.4% Logistic Regression 0.9% 8.6% 3.6% 3.1% 2.9% 4.7% 1.1% 1.4% 0.4% 1.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ialy at 05/18/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 129 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.0% 5.9% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% 4.5% 0.8% 2.8% 0.8% 7.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 4.3% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 3.0% 0.5% 1.8% 0.5% 5.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.8% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.7% 0.0% 1.8% 0.5% 11.8% Logistic Regression 1.3% 9.9% 3.7% 3.5% 3.5% 7.3% 1.6% 3.8% 1.2% 4.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ialy at 05/17/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 129 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 4.7% 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 2.7% 0.5% 1.3% 0.3% 3.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 3.1% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.8% 0.3% 0.8% 0.1% 2.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 1.5% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 6.1% Logistic Regression 0.8% 7.8% 2.9% 2.5% 2.5% 4.7% 1.0% 2.2% 0.5% 1.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ialy at 05/17/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 130 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 4.2% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 2.8% 0.4% 2.0% 0.7% 6.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 3.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 1.9% 0.2% 1.3% 0.4% 4.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 2.1% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 1.5% 0.0% 1.4% 0.7% 10.9% Logistic Regression 0.5% 6.3% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 4.2% 0.8% 2.5% 0.7% 2.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ialy at 05/17/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 138 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.9% 7.1% 2.4% 2.1% 2.1% 5.9% 0.9% 4.3% 1.4% 6.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.6% 5.3% 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 3.9% 0.6% 2.8% 1.0% 4.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.8% 3.9% 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 3.3% 0.0% 3.8% 1.3% 8.9% Logistic Regression 1.0% 10.4% 3.7% 3.4% 3.4% 8.4% 1.9% 4.8% 1.6% 3.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ialy at 05/16/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 142 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 2.1% 19.2% 8.2% 7.2% 6.1% 18.3% 5.7% 14.4% 6.9% 21.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.4% 13.4% 5.4% 4.8% 4.0% 12.2% 3.8% 9.6% 4.6% 14.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.6% 12.0% 4.1% 2.4% 0.8% 7.1% 0.0% 12.2% 4.4% 24.3% Logistic Regression 2.7% 26.4% 12.2% 12.0% 11.4% 29.5% 11.4% 16.6% 9.5% 18.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------