CIMSS AI Rapid Intensification Index

Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index (Reference)

Prapiroon at 07/23/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 112 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	RIPA Consensus	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	0.0%	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Prapiroon at 07/23/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 130 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.7%	RIPA Consensus	0.1%	0.3%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.2%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	0.0%	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Prapiroon at 07/22/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 137 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.0%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	10.9%	RIPA Consensus	0.9%	1.3%	0.5%	0.4%	0.3%	0.3%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	0.6%	0.9%	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.6%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	1.1%	0.5%	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	0.7%	2.1%	0.7%	0.7%	0.7%	0.4%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Prapiroon at 07/22/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 144 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	0.8%	3.7%	0.8%	0.4%	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	24.3%	RIPA Consensus	8.8%	10.2%	7.1%	7.1%	4.2%	1.6%	0.3%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	6.1%	8.0%	4.9%	4.8%	2.8%	1.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	8.1%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	12.5%	7.6%	7.6%	7.6%	1.9%	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	5.2%	12.7%	6.5%	6.5%	6.5%	2.6%	0.6%	0.6%	0.1%	0.2%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Prapiroon at 07/22/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 144 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	6.4%	21.4%	10.1%	1.2%	1.9%	1.6%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	34.5%	RIPA Consensus	8.0%	12.2%	8.3%	8.2%	4.6%	2.4%	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	7.4%	15.2%	8.9%	5.8%	3.6%	2.1%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	11.5%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	9.1%	7.7%	7.7%	7.7%	0.7%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	6.8%	16.7%	8.9%	8.7%	8.5%	4.0%	1.0%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Prapiroon at 07/22/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 149 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	6.2%	19.3%	6.2%	4.3%	2.1%	2.7%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	RIPA Consensus	3.5%	8.4%	4.5%	4.2%	2.8%	2.5%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%	0.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	4.3%	12.0%	5.0%	4.2%	2.6%	2.5%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	2.5%	3.6%	2.4%	2.4%	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	4.5%	13.3%	6.6%	6.0%	5.6%	4.7%	1.2%	0.6%	0.2%	0.4%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Prapiroon at 07/21/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 132 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	10.5%	34.5%	24.2%	9.4%	11.4%	7.0%	1.1%	0.4%	0.4%	0.1%	RIPA Consensus	12.5%	30.0%	21.2%	19.2%	17.1%	11.3%	3.0%	1.7%	0.7%	0.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	11.7%	31.5%	22.2%	15.9%	15.1%	9.8%	2.3%	1.3%	0.6%	0.4%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	12.5%	20.3%	16.1%	12.0%	7.9%	5.9%	0.0%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	12.4%	39.7%	26.3%	26.3%	26.2%	16.7%	5.9%	3.1%	1.3%	1.3%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Prapiroon at 07/21/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 131 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	9.3%	23.0%	11.6%	4.2%	3.4%	6.0%	1.4%	0.7%	1.6%	0.2%	RIPA Consensus	3.5%	12.2%	6.7%	6.0%	5.2%	7.5%	2.0%	1.9%	0.8%	0.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	5.4%	15.7%	8.2%	5.3%	4.5%	7.0%	1.8%	1.5%	1.0%	0.5%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	2.6%	4.8%	3.5%	2.5%	0.8%	2.3%	0.0%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	4.4%	19.5%	9.8%	9.5%	9.5%	12.7%	4.1%	3.4%	1.4%	1.3%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Prapiroon at 07/21/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 137 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	4.8%	21.4%	4.7%	2.5%	5.2%	6.9%	1.7%	3.3%	1.4%	0.6%	RIPA Consensus	2.1%	10.9%	5.0%	4.5%	3.7%	8.3%	2.3%	3.8%	1.2%	1.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	3.0%	14.4%	4.8%	3.8%	4.1%	7.8%	2.1%	3.6%	1.2%	0.9%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	1.1%	4.3%	1.8%	1.7%	0.0%	2.3%	0.0%	2.2%	0.2%	0.0%
											Logistic Regression	3.1%	17.5%	8.2%	7.3%	7.3%	14.3%	4.6%	5.3%	2.3%	2.1%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Four at 07/21/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 137 kts

RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72	RI (kt / h)	20/12	25/24	30/24	35/24	40/24	45/36	55/36	55/48	70/48	65/72
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities											RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI	1.7%	22.0%	5.6%	2.0%	0.4%	3.7%	1.0%	1.4%	1.3%	0.3%	RIPA Consensus	3.2%	14.2%	6.7%	5.6%	4.6%	10.6%	2.9%	4.6%	1.8%	2.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus	2.7%	16.8%	6.3%	4.3%	3.2%	8.2%	2.2%	3.5%	1.6%	1.6%	Linear Discriminant Analysis	2.5%	7.1%	3.9%	2.4%	0.6%	3.5%	0.0%	3.4%	0.7%	1.0%
											Logistic Regression	4.0%	21.3%	9.5%	8.7%	8.7%	17.6%	5.7%	5.7%	3.0%	3.6%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------											------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------