Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Gaemi at 07/26/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 0 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.7% 4.1% 3.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.6% 1.7% 1.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Gaemi at 07/26/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 0 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.1% 6.2% 6.2% 1.4% 0.6% 1.1% 0.2% 1.7% 0.4% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 2.5% 2.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 1.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 1.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Gaemi at 07/25/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 46 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 5.4% 2.1% 1.6% 2.0% 1.8% 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 999% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 2.3% 0.9% 0.7% 0.8% 1.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 1.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 2.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Gaemi at 07/25/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 78 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.8% 0.2% 1.4% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Gaemi at 07/25/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 1.5% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 999% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 1.5% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Gaemi at 07/25/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 116 kts       Gaemi at 07/25/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 116 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.8% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.8% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.8% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------       Gaemi at 07/24/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 132 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Gaemi at 07/24/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 133 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.8% 7.7% 3.8% 0.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.9% 3.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 1.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Gaemi at 07/24/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 135 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.0% 5.2% 1.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 3.8% 1.7% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.2% 2.8% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 6.1% 1.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.6% 2.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Gaemi at 07/24/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 144 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 17.5% 27.1% 15.9% 11.6% 4.4% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 32.9% 15.9% 11.5% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 27.7% 19.6% 12.9% 11.5% 1.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 52.9% 19.5% 15.8% 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 12.9% 12.3% 7.1% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Gaemi at 07/23/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 148 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 30.3% 25.4% 21.3% 17.8% 6.4% 3.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 41.4% 23.1% 17.1% 17.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 37.6% 23.8% 18.5% 17.3% 2.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 61.9% 27.4% 21.6% 21.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 20.9% 18.9% 12.6% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Gaemi at 07/23/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 149 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 46.5% 48.6% 46.3% 52.2% 32.7% 15.9% 3.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 59.0% 62.1% 57.3% 57.3% 42.1% 49.9% 8.2% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 54.8% 57.5% 53.6% 55.5% 39.0% 38.5% 6.5% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 73.8% 65.1% 60.0% 60.0% 33.0% 68.1% 0.0% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 44.3% 59.1% 54.5% 54.5% 51.3% 31.7% 16.4% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Gaemi at 07/23/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 149 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 44.5% 51.7% 54.0% 49.9% 41.2% 38.0% 20.5% 3.4% 1.3% 0.6% RIPA Consensus 79.2% 89.1% 89.1% 89.1% 71.0% 67.9% 19.1% 17.9% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 67.6% 76.6% 77.4% 76.0% 61.0% 57.9% 19.5% 13.0% 0.4% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 88.7% 93.3% 93.3% 93.3% 58.9% 80.6% 0.0% 22.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 69.7% 84.9% 84.9% 84.9% 83.1% 55.2% 38.2% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Gaemi at 07/23/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 153 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 22.3% 50.5% 52.3% 30.3% 24.9% 21.7% 10.2% 7.5% 0.5% 1.6% RIPA Consensus 76.8% 94.2% 94.2% 94.2% 81.4% N/A N/A N/A 13.8% 5.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 58.6% 79.6% 80.2% 72.8% 62.5% 55.2% 21.2% 26.0% 9.4% 4.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 86.1% 96.8% 96.8% 96.8% 72.3% N/A N/A N/A 10.9% 2.2% Logistic Regression 67.4% 91.6% 91.6% 91.6% 90.6% N/A N/A 35.9% 16.8% 8.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Gaemi at 07/22/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 157 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 36.9% 51.1% 52.9% 43.1% 19.0% 35.5% 22.6% 19.1% 3.7% 7.3% RIPA Consensus 65.8% 92.0% 91.4% 91.4% 76.3% 77.9% 30.6% 46.9% 23.4% 11.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 56.1% 78.3% 78.6% 75.3% 57.2% 63.7% 27.9% 37.6% 16.8% 10.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 77.2% 94.3% 93.1% 93.1% 64.2% 79.6% 0.0% 48.3% 21.7% 8.0% Logistic Regression 54.3% 89.8% 89.8% 89.8% 88.4% 76.3% 61.2% 45.6% 25.0% 15.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Gaemi at 07/22/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 153 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 22.0% 48.7% 30.8% 29.2% 13.8% 28.5% 15.0% 19.8% 10.2% 19.0% RIPA Consensus 37.2% 82.5% 75.3% 72.5% 55.6% 72.4% 28.1% 51.5% 29.2% 23.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 32.1% 71.2% 60.4% 58.0% 41.6% 57.7% 23.7% 40.9% 22.8% 21.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 44.5% 81.7% 71.4% 65.9% 33.8% 71.1% 0.0% 51.2% 24.8% 20.8% Logistic Regression 29.8% 83.3% 79.1% 79.1% 77.5% 73.7% 56.1% 51.9% 33.6% 25.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Gaemi at 07/22/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 152 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 13.0% 50.6% 48.6% 15.8% 4.7% 28.4% 12.2% 25.9% 22.1% 22.5% RIPA Consensus 15.9% 69.3% 52.4% 47.2% 36.8% 64.9% 23.6% 55.7% 32.3% N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 14.9% 63.0% 51.1% 36.7% 26.0% 52.7% 19.8% 45.7% 28.9% 35.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 16.7% 67.0% 44.2% 33.9% 15.2% 61.5% 0.0% 52.0% 24.8% N/A Logistic Regression 15.1% 71.6% 60.6% 60.6% 58.4% 68.4% 47.2% 59.3% 39.8% N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Gaemi at 07/22/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 153 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.8% 25.5% 5.8% 3.4% 0.6% 8.0% 2.9% 13.0% 5.4% 22.7% RIPA Consensus 3.6% 37.4% 18.9% 13.8% 12.2% 37.7% 7.6% 43.2% 20.4% 46.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.3% 33.4% 14.5% 10.3% 8.3% 27.8% 6.0% 33.1% 15.4% 38.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.0% 35.9% 16.5% 7.4% 4.2% 37.9% 0.0% 50.8% 24.8% 60.9% Logistic Regression 3.2% 39.0% 21.4% 20.1% 20.1% 37.6% 15.2% 35.5% 16.1% 31.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Gaemi at 07/21/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 146 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 14.4% 59.0% 47.0% 12.0% 12.9% 27.5% 6.9% 32.6% 10.7% 54.6% RIPA Consensus 18.9% 63.6% 46.6% 42.4% 33.4% 57.0% 19.0% 52.5% 30.1% 56.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 17.4% 62.1% 46.7% 32.2% 26.6% 47.1% 15.0% 45.8% 23.5% 56.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 22.4% 61.9% 41.8% 33.3% 17.3% 52.0% 0.0% 51.3% 24.8% 61.3% Logistic Regression 15.4% 65.4% 51.4% 51.4% 49.6% 62.0% 38.1% 53.7% 35.3% 52.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Gaemi at 07/21/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 143 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.8% 11.1% 3.9% 0.3% 1.2% 3.0% 1.4% 18.5% 1.8% 52.7% RIPA Consensus 5.6% 29.2% 15.5% 11.7% 8.9% 27.1% 3.8% 34.1% 17.5% 47.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.3% 23.1% 11.6% 7.8% 6.3% 19.0% 3.0% 28.9% 12.3% 49.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 6.9% 27.4% 16.3% 9.2% 3.6% 29.4% 0.0% 44.5% 24.8% 61.9% Logistic Regression 4.2% 31.0% 14.7% 14.2% 14.2% 24.8% 7.7% 23.8% 10.3% 32.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Gaemi at 07/21/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 142 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.9% 21.0% 24.1% 5.0% 2.7% 31.3% 18.3% 23.8% 31.7% 47.6% RIPA Consensus 12.4% 44.3% 27.0% 23.7% 18.2% 42.0% 10.8% 43.3% 23.7% 56.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.2% 36.5% 26.0% 17.5% 13.0% 38.4% 13.2% 36.8% 26.3% 53.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 14.6% 41.4% 25.5% 19.3% 8.2% 38.6% 0.0% 49.9% 24.8% 61.9% Logistic Regression 10.2% 47.1% 28.4% 28.2% 28.2% 45.4% 21.5% 36.7% 22.5% 50.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Gaemi at 07/21/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 156 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.5% 28.1% 16.3% 7.1% 2.1% 13.5% 10.1% 38.0% 12.6% 49.3% RIPA Consensus 8.2% 40.2% 24.2% 21.9% 15.6% 38.0% 11.4% 40.8% 22.5% 55.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.6% 36.1% 21.5% 16.9% 11.0% 29.8% 11.0% 39.8% 19.2% 53.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 8.1% 33.0% 18.0% 14.4% 2.8% 30.0% 0.0% 47.3% 24.7% 61.9% Logistic Regression 8.3% 47.4% 30.3% 29.3% 28.3% 46.0% 22.9% 34.2% 20.3% 49.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------