Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Son-tinh intensity image current Son-tinh RI diff image

 


Seven at 08/15/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Son-tinh at 08/13/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 42 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Son-tinh at 08/13/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 50 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.7% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Son-tinh at 08/13/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 50 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 1.8% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 1.8% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Son-tinh at 08/12/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 50 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 2.9% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Son-tinh at 08/12/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 41 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Son-tinh at 08/12/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 43 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------