Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Ampil at 08/19/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 0 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ampil at 08/19/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 0 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ampil at 08/19/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 10 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ampil at 08/18/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 21 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ampil at 08/18/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 22 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ampil at 08/18/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 32 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0.5% 1.8% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ampil at 08/17/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 38 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% 0.2% 3.1% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 1.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ampil at 08/17/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 22 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ampil at 08/17/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 73 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 0.1% 1.3% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ampil at 08/17/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 101 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ampil at 08/16/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 101 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ampil at 08/15/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 134 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 16.4% 13.1% 4.0% 3.1% 3.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 35.1% 42.8% 41.7% 41.7% 31.8% 35.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 28.8% 32.8% 29.1% 28.8% 22.4% 23.5% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 42.6% 38.6% 38.6% 38.6% 19.3% 47.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 27.6% 46.9% 44.8% 44.8% 44.3% 22.2% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ampil at 08/15/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 138 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 20.3% 29.7% 25.9% 9.6% 8.2% 2.5% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 31.5% 44.2% 43.0% 43.0% 30.5% 31.5% 5.1% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 27.7% 39.4% 37.2% 31.8% 23.0% 21.8% 3.6% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 39.0% 42.8% 42.8% 42.8% 17.9% 42.9% 0.0% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 24.0% 45.7% 43.1% 43.1% 43.1% 20.1% 10.1% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ampil at 08/15/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 140 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 17.8% 21.4% 20.6% 13.2% 9.4% 7.7% 3.1% 2.5% 1.1% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 33.2% 45.3% 44.0% 44.0% 33.0% 35.6% 6.1% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 28.0% 37.3% 36.2% 33.7% 25.1% 26.3% 5.0% 6.3% 0.3% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 43.4% 44.3% 44.3% 44.3% 22.3% 47.1% 0.0% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 23.0% 46.3% 43.7% 43.7% 43.7% 24.1% 12.1% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ampil at 08/14/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 146 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 20.3% 35.2% 33.0% 28.7% 27.4% 13.1% 10.3% 4.8% 5.3% 0.5% RIPA Consensus 43.9% 65.0% 65.0% 65.0% 52.9% 43.3% 12.9% 22.6% 6.7% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 36.0% 55.0% 54.2% 52.8% 44.3% 33.2% 12.0% 16.6% 6.2% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 52.4% 61.1% 61.1% 61.1% 36.9% 44.2% 0.0% 16.5% 4.6% 0.0% Logistic Regression 35.4% 68.8% 68.8% 68.8% 68.8% 42.4% 25.8% 28.7% 8.9% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ampil at 08/14/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 141 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 14.6% 36.2% 32.3% 0.0% 10.5% 0.4% 0.0% 11.9% 0.0% 1.4% RIPA Consensus 14.5% 37.5% 33.7% 33.1% 27.4% 28.6% 6.9% 21.0% 6.4% 4.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 14.5% 37.0% 33.2% 22.0% 21.8% 19.2% 4.6% 18.0% 4.2% 3.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 15.1% 27.1% 25.6% 24.3% 13.0% 28.3% 0.0% 16.6% 5.0% 4.3% Logistic Regression 13.9% 47.9% 41.9% 41.9% 41.9% 28.9% 13.8% 25.5% 7.8% 5.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ampil at 08/14/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 152 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 11.7% 31.5% 24.6% 16.3% 10.9% 27.4% 15.3% 15.9% 8.0% 7.8% RIPA Consensus 10.5% 29.9% 25.4% 25.4% 18.9% 26.9% 6.7% 24.0% 7.4% 7.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 10.8% 30.4% 25.0% 22.3% 16.2% 27.0% 9.5% 21.3% 7.5% 7.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 11.6% 20.0% 19.5% 19.5% 6.6% 25.3% 0.0% 20.5% 5.5% 4.7% Logistic Regression 9.3% 39.8% 31.2% 31.2% 31.2% 28.5% 13.3% 27.5% 9.2% 9.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ampil at 08/14/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 148 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 18.3% 43.9% 45.2% 24.0% 22.2% 22.0% 16.6% 11.6% 9.0% 10.0% RIPA Consensus 20.1% 46.2% 41.6% 41.6% 31.4% 41.4% 15.7% 29.7% 10.9% 13.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 19.4% 45.4% 42.7% 35.6% 28.3% 34.9% 16.0% 23.6% 10.2% 12.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 21.2% 35.5% 32.8% 32.8% 13.0% 33.1% 0.0% 22.3% 5.6% 7.9% Logistic Regression 18.9% 56.9% 50.3% 50.3% 49.9% 49.7% 31.4% 37.0% 16.2% 19.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ampil at 08/13/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 151 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.4% 30.7% 22.2% 18.2% 9.9% 28.7% 24.1% 17.0% 6.5% 4.2% RIPA Consensus 13.2% 36.0% 28.4% 28.4% 22.0% 35.0% 12.7% 25.7% 9.8% 12.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 11.9% 34.2% 26.3% 25.0% 17.9% 32.9% 16.5% 22.8% 8.7% 9.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 14.1% 25.5% 21.0% 21.0% 8.2% 25.9% 0.0% 19.3% 4.8% 5.6% Logistic Regression 12.3% 46.6% 35.8% 35.8% 35.8% 44.2% 25.5% 32.1% 14.8% 18.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ampil at 08/13/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 150 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 15.4% 43.3% 42.0% 32.6% 18.4% 28.6% 19.9% 13.5% 7.9% 9.9% RIPA Consensus 20.6% 45.7% 37.4% 37.4% 29.5% 41.0% 16.4% 30.1% 15.1% 24.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 18.8% 44.9% 38.9% 35.7% 25.8% 36.8% 17.5% 24.5% 12.6% 19.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 23.2% 36.8% 30.2% 30.2% 14.5% 30.2% 0.0% 21.7% 7.8% 14.1% Logistic Regression 18.0% 54.6% 44.5% 44.5% 44.5% 51.7% 32.9% 38.4% 22.4% 34.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ampil at 08/13/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 155 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.1% 43.5% 37.2% 24.9% 7.5% 16.7% 10.5% 12.6% 8.9% 6.9% RIPA Consensus 2.2% 14.7% 7.7% 7.0% 5.9% 14.1% 4.2% 14.8% 5.4% 21.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.2% 24.3% 17.5% 13.0% 6.4% 14.9% 6.3% 14.1% 6.5% 16.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.4% 6.7% 3.4% 2.8% 0.4% 6.2% 0.0% 11.3% 3.3% 19.8% Logistic Regression 3.1% 22.8% 11.9% 11.3% 11.3% 22.0% 8.5% 18.4% 7.4% 23.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ampil at 08/13/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 155 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.6% 20.7% 9.3% 4.7% 3.1% 13.8% 5.6% 14.7% 11.7% 9.0% RIPA Consensus 4.6% 21.9% 13.1% 12.3% 10.2% 20.6% 7.5% 20.6% 7.7% 26.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.9% 21.5% 11.8% 9.7% 7.8% 18.3% 6.8% 18.6% 9.0% 20.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.6% 10.1% 5.5% 4.4% 0.7% 9.2% 0.0% 17.0% 4.5% 22.5% Logistic Regression 6.7% 33.7% 20.7% 20.2% 19.7% 32.1% 14.9% 24.2% 10.8% 29.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eight at 08/12/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 150 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.3% 12.7% 6.3% 6.8% 2.8% 10.0% 6.6% 9.5% 4.8% 8.5% RIPA Consensus 5.5% 21.0% 12.3% 10.9% 9.6% 22.8% 7.8% 18.1% 8.4% 23.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.4% 18.2% 10.3% 9.5% 7.3% 18.5% 7.4% 15.2% 7.1% 18.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.2% 10.2% 7.2% 4.4% 1.8% 11.3% 0.0% 14.5% 5.6% 19.0% Logistic Regression 6.8% 31.8% 17.5% 17.5% 17.5% 34.2% 15.7% 21.6% 11.1% 28.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eight at 08/12/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 150 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.7% 23.0% 12.9% 4.9% 3.5% 4.9% 3.3% 13.9% 3.9% 9.0% RIPA Consensus 2.7% 19.7% 10.0% 8.5% 7.4% 26.0% 10.9% 20.9% 14.6% 36.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.3% 20.8% 11.0% 7.3% 6.1% 18.9% 8.3% 18.5% 11.0% 27.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.5% 8.1% 4.6% 2.8% 0.5% 9.2% 0.0% 18.1% 10.8% 31.2% Logistic Regression 3.9% 31.4% 15.5% 14.3% 14.3% 42.8% 21.8% 23.7% 18.5% 41.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------