Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Eleven at 09/01/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 116 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.1% 2.1% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eleven at 09/01/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 107 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 1.7% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 2.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 1.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 3.6% Logistic Regression 0.4% 2.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 1.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Shanshan at 09/01/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 127 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% RIPA Consensus 0.9% 3.2% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.6% 2.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.3% 5.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Shanshan at 09/01/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 121 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 3.5% 1.1% 0.9% 0.8% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 2.3% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.7% 6.4% 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 3.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Shanshan at 08/31/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 128 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 3.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 1.5% 0.1% 3.0% 0.2% 3.7% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 3.4% 1.1% 1.0% 0.9% 4.7% 1.1% 2.3% 1.2% 6.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 3.4% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 3.6% 0.7% 2.5% 0.8% 5.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 6.0% Logistic Regression 0.7% 6.3% 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% 9.1% 2.3% 4.2% 2.0% 6.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Shanshan at 08/31/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 124 kts       Shanshan at 08/31/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 124 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 4.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 1.9% 999% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 1.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.3% 2.7% 0.8% 0.6% 999% 3.6% 0.7% 999% 0.3% 0.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 4.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 1.9% 999% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 1.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.3% 2.7% 0.8% 0.6% 999% 3.6% 0.7% 999% 0.3% 0.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Shanshan at 08/31/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 126 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 5.0% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 2.1% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 2.8% 0.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 1.9% 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 1.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 3.8% 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 5.4% 1.3% 1.7% 0.7% 0.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Shanshan at 08/31/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 121 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 1.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 5.3% 0.7% 4.5% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 2.6% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 3.0% 0.7% 1.5% 0.6% 2.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 2.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 2.0% 0.4% 2.7% 0.6% 3.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.7% Logistic Regression 0.8% 4.7% 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 5.7% 1.4% 2.8% 1.1% 3.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 1.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 5.3% 0.7% 4.5% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 2.6% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 3.0% 0.7% 1.5% 0.6% 2.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 2.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 2.0% 0.4% 2.7% 0.6% 3.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.7% Logistic Regression 0.8% 4.7% 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 5.7% 1.4% 2.8% 1.1% 3.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------     AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 1.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 5.3% 0.7% 4.5% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 2.6% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 3.0% 0.7% 1.5% 0.6% 2.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 2.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 2.0% 0.4% 2.7% 0.6% 3.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.7% Logistic Regression 0.8% 4.7% 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 5.7% 1.4% 2.8% 1.1% 3.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Shanshan at 08/30/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 114 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 1.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 3.9% 0.7% 5.2% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 1.8% 0.3% 1.0% 0.3% 1.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 1.3% 0.2% 1.9% 0.4% 3.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.4% Logistic Regression 0.5% 3.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 3.5% 0.7% 1.9% 0.6% 2.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Shanshan at 08/30/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 109 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 1.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 3.7% 0.5% 3.8% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 3.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 1.7% 0.3% 3.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 4.6% Logistic Regression 0.3% 1.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 1.9% 0.3% 1.4% 0.3% 1.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Shanshan at 08/30/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 110 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.0% 2.1% 1.8% 0.7% 0.3% 1.1% 0.3% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 1.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.6% Logistic Regression 0.3% 2.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 2.1% 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Shanshan at 08/30/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 111 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 2.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 3.7% 1.5% 1.3% 1.2% 2.1% 0.4% 1.5% 0.4% 4.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.6% 3.3% 1.1% 1.0% 0.8% 1.5% 0.3% 1.2% 0.2% 2.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 5.8% Logistic Regression 0.8% 6.8% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 3.6% 0.8% 2.7% 0.7% 2.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Shanshan at 08/29/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 111 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 2.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 1.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.5% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Shanshan at 08/29/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 102 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 5.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 3.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 9.9% Logistic Regression 0.1% 1.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Shanshan at 08/25/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 145 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 33.3% 42.4% 38.9% 30.9% 27.0% 23.0% 999% 17.0% 2.6% 2.7% RIPA Consensus 999% 999% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 5.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 999% Linear Discriminant Analysis 999% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 9.9% Logistic Regression 999% 1.2% 0.5% 999% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Shanshan at 08/25/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 145 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 2.7% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 999% N/A 999% N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A 999% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A 999% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Shanshan at 08/24/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 151 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 18.2% 18.0% 10.1% 11.7% 12.2% 14.6% 4.1% 9.1% 0.8% 7.1% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Shanshan at 08/24/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 143 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 13.1% 17.2% 16.3% 19.2% 16.8% 17.9% 5.9% 18.0% 2.1% 11.7% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Shanshan at 08/24/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 135 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 25.2% 21.2% 17.2% 17.0% 10.3% 19.1% 9.5% 21.4% 10.4% 15.3% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Shanshan at 08/24/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 136 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 20.9% 21.6% 13.0% 11.8% 13.5% 12.6% 7.1% 22.3% 4.7% 9.5% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Shanshan at 08/23/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 152 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 26.6% 9.7% 8.2% 1.8% 4.3% 2.1% 10.6% 2.1% 23.3% RIPA Consensus 5.7% 15.1% 10.0% 8.2% 7.6% 12.0% 1.8% 8.1% 1.8% 6.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 18.9% 9.8% 8.2% 5.6% 9.4% 1.9% 8.9% 1.8% 12.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 7.7% 10.8% 9.6% 6.0% 4.8% 11.9% 0.0% 6.4% 1.4% 6.9% Logistic Regression 3.8% 19.4% 10.4% 10.4% 10.4% 12.2% 3.6% 9.8% 999% 999% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------     Shanshan at 08/23/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 142 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 17.1% 33.0% 23.9% 29.0% 12.4% 29.4% 21.5% 31.1% 10.7% 35.4% RIPA Consensus 14.1% 35.7% 26.4% 24.1% 21.6% 27.2% 5.3% 21.0% 7.4% 14.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 15.1% 34.8% 25.5% 25.7% 18.5% 27.9% 10.7% 24.3% 8.4% 21.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 19.0% 33.2% 25.4% 20.7% 15.7% 28.6% 0.0% 18.5% 8.1% 18.1% Logistic Regression 9.2% 38.2% 27.5% 27.5% 27.5% 25.8% 10.6% 23.5% 6.7% 11.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Shanshan at 08/23/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 145 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 9.5% 20.6% RIPA Consensus 9.9% 26.8% 15.6% 14.7% 10.7% 15.6% 3.3% 8.8% 2.4% 8.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 23.4% 0.2% 0.0% 9.5% 17.5% 0.0% 0.4% 4.8% 12.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 12.6% 23.5% 14.1% 12.2% 4.8% 11.8% 0.0% 6.9% 1.6% 8.2% Logistic Regression 7.1% 30.1% 17.1% 17.1% 16.5% 19.4% 6.6% 10.7% 3.3% 8.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------     Shanshan at 08/22/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 142 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 24.5% 47.7% 46.9% 25.6% 17.4% 37.0% 21.3% 32.1% 13.8% 32.9% RIPA Consensus 10.8% 40.7% 22.8% 19.0% 16.7% 30.2% 10.8% 14.6% 8.1% 15.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 15.3% 43.0% 30.8% 21.1% 16.9% 32.4% 14.3% 20.4% 10.0% 21.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 9.9% 33.6% 17.1% 9.5% 5.9% 16.4% 0.0% 12.9% 6.3% 15.2% Logistic Regression 11.6% 47.9% 28.5% 28.4% 27.4% 43.9% 21.6% 16.3% 10.0% 15.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Shanshan at 08/22/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 147 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.4% 33.2% 12.3% 6.0% 4.1% 23.2% 8.4% 22.5% 2.3% 31.5% RIPA Consensus 12.0% 42.5% 25.6% 22.0% 19.5% 36.5% 14.4% 21.1% 11.4% 22.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 10.8% 39.4% 21.1% 16.7% 14.3% 32.0% 12.4% 21.5% 8.3% 25.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 10.7% 33.3% 17.9% 10.9% 7.1% 20.9% 0.0% 20.1% 8.7% 18.9% Logistic Regression 13.3% 51.7% 33.2% 33.2% 31.9% 52.0% 28.8% 22.1% 14.1% 25.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eleven at 08/21/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 6.2% 33.3% 18.2% 0.2% 13.5% 31.7% 13.4% 18.7% 12.7% 22.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 28.4% 0.2% 0.0% 9.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 3.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.7% 21.7% 11.3% 4.8% 3.4% 12.9% 0.0% 17.4% 9.2% 21.9% Logistic Regression 7.7% 45.0% 25.2% 24.0% 23.6% 50.4% 26.8% 20.1% 16.2% 23.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eleven at 08/21/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 149 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.0% 21.2% 9.0% 6.3% 2.0% 22.8% 10.2% 22.2% 10.7% 36.7% RIPA Consensus 2.4% 23.3% 10.4% 7.4% 7.0% 25.0% 8.2% 19.5% 14.9% 28.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.2% 22.6% 9.9% 7.0% 5.3% 24.2% 8.8% 20.4% 13.5% 31.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.5% 13.8% 5.9% 2.0% 1.1% 10.5% 0.0% 21.8% 16.9% 34.4% Logistic Regression 3.3% 32.9% 14.9% 12.9% 12.9% 39.5% 16.4% 17.2% 12.9% 23.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------