Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Yagi at 09/08/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 88 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 5.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Yagi at 09/07/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 75 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Yagi at 09/07/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 128 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 1.5% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Yagi at 09/07/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 125 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.9% 11.2% 3.8% 1.7% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 7.1% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.7% 4.6% 1.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 10.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.8% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Yagi at 09/07/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 171 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 11.7% 7.5% 1.2% 1.6% 1.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 7.7% 6.3% 4.1% 3.9% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.0% 6.7% 3.1% 3.1% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 10.5% 5.7% 3.7% 3.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.9% 7.0% 4.4% 4.3% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Yagi at 09/06/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 10.6% 20.0% 14.2% 23.1% 8.7% 3.9% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 1.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.7% 7.4% 5.1% 8.0% 3.1% 2.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 1.8% 1.1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 10.6% 20.0% 14.2% 23.1% 8.7% 3.9% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 1.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.7% 7.4% 5.1% 8.0% 3.1% 2.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 1.8% 1.1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Yagi at 09/06/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 146 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 22.6% 11.2% 8.9% 0.4% 2.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.7% 2.0% 1.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 8.6% 5.0% 3.8% 0.7% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.6% 1.1% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.7% 2.9% 1.8% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Yagi at 09/06/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 153 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 11.6% 4.7% 2.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.5% 2.2% 1.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.9% 1.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Yagi at 09/06/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 130 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 18.1% 9.4% 5.0% 1.0% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 12.3% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 14.2% 7.8% 1.6% 0.3% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 17.8% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 6.8% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Yagi at 09/05/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 147 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 21.8% 27.3% 17.8% 1.0% 11.7% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 4.0% 5.6% 3.6% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.9% 12.8% 8.3% 2.4% 3.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.7% 4.7% 2.9% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.2% 6.5% 4.4% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Yagi at 09/05/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 143 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 13.2% 19.2% 11.4% 13.2% 3.5% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.4% 1.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.3% 7.1% 4.1% 4.3% 1.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.3% 1.7% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Yagi at 09/05/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 145 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 16.8% 13.7% 13.4% 1.6% 4.8% 1.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 6.0% 6.7% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.6% 9.0% 7.4% 0.5% 1.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 8.4% 6.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.7% 6.9% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Yagi at 09/05/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 130 kts, MPI = 149 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 24.1% 17.0% 6.0% 7.1% 3.0% 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 34.2% 26.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 30.8% 23.2% 2.0% 2.3% 1.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 53.2% 30.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 15.3% 22.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Yagi at 09/04/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 154 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 52.4% 29.5% 29.9% 22.7% 22.9% 7.9% 2.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.6% RIPA Consensus 39.8% 40.5% 33.5% 33.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 43.9% 36.8% 32.2% 29.8% 7.6% 2.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 59.5% 44.7% 35.8% 35.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 20.0% 36.3% 31.1% 31.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Yagi at 09/04/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 152 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 47.7% 39.8% 43.7% 44.3% 24.1% 19.8% 9.9% 4.8% 0.6% 1.5% RIPA Consensus 48.2% 56.1% 51.0% 51.0% 39.8% 69.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 48.0% 50.6% 48.6% 48.8% 34.5% 52.5% 3.3% 1.5% 0.1% 0.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 65.4% 59.1% 51.5% 51.5% 32.6% 92.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 31.0% 53.0% 50.6% 50.6% 47.0% 45.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Yagi at 09/04/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 158 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 28.1% 50.6% 43.9% 38.9% 23.6% 31.2% 20.3% 11.8% 3.1% 8.1% RIPA Consensus 74.2% 93.3% 93.3% 93.3% 83.1% 84.8% 37.1% 55.5% 32.3% 22.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 58.8% 79.0% 76.8% 75.1% 63.2% 66.8% 31.5% 40.9% 22.5% 17.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 83.5% 94.7% 94.7% 94.7% 75.6% 87.3% 0.0% 49.9% 24.6% 18.8% Logistic Regression 64.9% 91.8% 91.8% 91.8% 90.6% 82.2% 74.2% 61.2% 40.0% 26.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Yagi at 09/04/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 156 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 36.7% 56.4% 40.7% 35.0% 30.5% 38.4% 28.2% 25.3% 11.2% 14.0% RIPA Consensus 69.4% 90.2% 90.2% 90.2% 72.9% 74.1% 33.3% 56.6% 31.6% 30.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 58.5% 78.9% 73.7% 71.8% 58.7% 62.1% 31.5% 46.1% 24.8% 24.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 77.7% 91.4% 91.4% 91.4% 58.0% 70.4% 0.0% 48.8% 22.5% 24.4% Logistic Regression 61.1% 89.0% 89.0% 89.0% 87.8% 77.7% 66.6% 64.3% 40.7% 36.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Yagi at 09/03/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 157 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 20.5% 39.8% 49.1% 22.6% 20.1% 24.3% 14.2% 27.4% 11.5% 18.4% RIPA Consensus 27.4% 71.5% 60.9% 60.9% 45.1% 60.6% 28.9% 56.1% 33.6% 43.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 25.0% 60.9% 56.9% 48.1% 36.7% 48.5% 23.9% 46.5% 26.2% 34.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 27.2% 65.2% 47.6% 47.6% 18.9% 48.1% 0.0% 49.8% 24.1% 41.2% Logistic Regression 27.5% 77.8% 74.2% 74.2% 71.3% 73.2% 57.7% 62.4% 43.1% 44.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Yagi at 09/03/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 156 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 10.0% 40.1% 25.6% 22.4% 11.9% 27.8% 15.6% 28.0% 10.1% 28.9% RIPA Consensus 22.2% 64.4% 52.6% 52.3% 37.7% 55.7% 25.3% 48.9% 30.0% 39.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 18.1% 56.2% 43.6% 42.3% 29.0% 46.4% 22.0% 41.9% 23.4% 35.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 20.7% 56.5% 41.6% 40.9% 12.5% 43.4% 0.0% 46.0% 24.6% 35.6% Logistic Regression 23.7% 72.3% 63.7% 63.7% 62.8% 68.0% 50.7% 51.8% 35.5% 43.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Yagi at 09/03/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 158 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.8% 44.9% 22.7% 17.8% 2.7% 26.2% 11.8% 21.1% 14.8% 16.0% RIPA Consensus 5.3% 35.3% 22.1% 21.1% 15.4% 35.0% 14.1% 39.5% 22.5% 47.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.1% 38.5% 22.3% 20.0% 11.1% 32.0% 13.3% 33.3% 19.9% 36.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.9% 23.0% 11.9% 11.1% 0.7% 20.5% 0.0% 37.6% 20.8% 48.6% Logistic Regression 7.7% 47.6% 32.4% 31.1% 30.0% 49.5% 28.2% 41.4% 24.3% 45.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Yagi at 09/03/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 160 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.7% 37.9% 18.3% 13.4% 5.6% 17.7% 11.3% 17.8% 8.6% 17.8% RIPA Consensus 6.5% 38.0% 22.2% 20.7% 15.1% 34.1% 13.2% 28.3% 15.4% 42.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.2% 37.9% 20.8% 18.3% 11.9% 28.6% 12.5% 24.8% 13.1% 34.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.2% 28.5% 14.1% 11.4% 1.7% 19.7% 0.0% 27.7% 12.8% 45.4% Logistic Regression 7.8% 47.4% 30.2% 30.1% 28.5% 48.5% 26.3% 28.9% 17.9% 39.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Yagi at 09/02/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 159 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.0% 21.6% 4.5% 2.7% 0.6% 7.3% 3.2% 7.3% 7.4% 19.0% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 9.4% 4.0% 2.9% 2.7% 10.5% 2.3% 19.9% 7.1% 35.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 13.5% 4.2% 2.8% 2.0% 9.4% 2.6% 15.7% 7.2% 29.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 3.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% 5.5% 0.0% 23.1% 8.3% 42.9% Logistic Regression 1.2% 15.1% 6.9% 5.4% 5.4% 15.4% 4.7% 16.7% 6.0% 27.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Yagi at 09/02/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 153 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.4% 8.7% 5.5% 3.3% 1.2% 10.3% 4.7% 14.6% 5.8% 16.2% RIPA Consensus 1.5% 15.7% 7.8% 5.8% 5.1% 18.2% 4.1% 28.3% 14.4% 40.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.4% 13.3% 7.0% 4.9% 3.7% 15.5% 4.3% 23.7% 11.5% 32.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.9% 8.7% 4.3% 1.9% 0.5% 13.1% 0.0% 33.6% 19.4% 54.5% Logistic Regression 2.0% 22.7% 11.2% 9.7% 9.7% 23.3% 8.2% 23.1% 9.3% 26.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Yagi at 09/02/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 162 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.3% 21.0% 5.3% 4.6% 1.6% 29.1% 9.3% 17.5% 12.4% 37.6% RIPA Consensus 9.3% 39.6% 24.9% 22.8% 17.9% 43.8% 15.5% 40.6% 25.7% 43.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.9% 33.4% 18.3% 16.7% 12.4% 38.8% 13.4% 32.9% 21.2% 41.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 10.4% 31.4% 20.1% 15.9% 6.1% 33.5% 0.0% 42.0% 24.1% 42.3% Logistic Regression 8.2% 47.8% 29.7% 29.7% 29.7% 54.0% 30.9% 39.2% 27.3% 44.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Yagi at 09/02/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 153 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.4% 9.0% 4.9% 1.7% 1.9% 9.6% 3.9% 22.3% 8.0% 33.7% RIPA Consensus 4.0% 29.2% 16.0% 13.4% 11.5% 35.1% 12.1% 38.2% 24.2% 49.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.1% 22.5% 12.3% 9.5% 8.2% 26.6% 9.4% 32.9% 18.8% 44.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.5% 19.8% 10.5% 6.1% 2.2% 22.9% 0.0% 39.5% 23.2% 52.4% Logistic Regression 4.5% 38.7% 21.6% 20.8% 20.7% 47.4% 24.3% 36.9% 25.2% 46.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Yagi at 09/01/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 153 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.9% 37.7% 17.8% 7.3% 7.6% 25.9% 11.0% 33.9% 18.3% 39.1% RIPA Consensus 4.9% 39.3% 22.9% 20.4% 16.0% 45.0% 21.0% 43.8% 32.3% 59.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.2% 38.7% 21.2% 16.0% 13.1% 38.6% 17.7% 40.5% 27.5% 52.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.6% 28.4% 15.3% 11.1% 3.1% 26.0% 0.0% 43.7% 24.5% 55.6% Logistic Regression 5.2% 50.2% 30.6% 29.8% 28.9% 63.9% 42.1% 43.9% 40.0% 62.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twelve at 09/01/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 151 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.2% 30.2% 6.5% 4.5% 2.1% 25.8% 10.5% 29.3% 28.3% 46.2% RIPA Consensus 3.4% 31.7% 15.8% 11.1% 10.2% 45.2% 17.8% 46.5% 33.5% 67.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.6% 31.2% 12.6% 8.9% 7.4% 38.7% 15.3% 40.7% 31.7% 60.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.1% 23.2% 12.2% 4.8% 2.9% 29.1% 0.0% 50.3% 24.8% 61.9% Logistic Regression 3.8% 40.2% 19.4% 17.4% 17.4% 61.3% 35.5% 42.6% 42.1% 73.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------