Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Bebinca at 09/12/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 125 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.6% 22.9% 12.9% 5.6% 2.0% 10.9% 7.9% 18.6% 5.2% 19.1% RIPA Consensus 3.4% 26.6% 16.1% 15.9% 11.3% 22.7% 7.1% 21.7% 6.5% 25.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.7% 25.3% 15.0% 12.5% 8.2% 18.7% 7.3% 20.6% 6.0% 23.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.6% 18.2% 9.6% 9.3% 0.9% 14.4% 0.0% 17.4% 4.8% 28.0% Logistic Regression 4.1% 34.9% 22.6% 22.6% 21.8% 31.0% 14.2% 25.9% 8.1% 22.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bebinca at 09/12/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 119 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.7% 28.4% 19.3% 7.6% 5.3% 10.4% 8.3% 25.8% 2.6% 30.0% RIPA Consensus 29.7% 64.2% 56.9% 56.9% 38.9% 51.2% 20.9% 39.3% 16.6% 27.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 22.7% 52.2% 44.4% 40.5% 27.7% 37.5% 16.6% 34.8% 11.9% 28.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 38.1% 60.8% 52.6% 52.6% 19.0% 41.6% 0.0% 33.6% 9.8% 22.5% Logistic Regression 21.3% 67.5% 61.3% 61.3% 58.9% 60.7% 41.7% 45.0% 23.4% 32.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bebinca at 09/12/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 135 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 14.9% 31.4% 23.3% 6.1% 8.7% 16.7% 13.0% 25.1% 8.7% 40.5% RIPA Consensus 24.4% 66.8% 50.5% 49.1% 39.3% 57.8% 28.3% 50.8% 29.3% 36.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 21.2% 55.0% 41.4% 34.8% 29.0% 44.1% 23.2% 42.2% 22.4% 38.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 27.8% 62.2% 38.7% 35.9% 19.0% 42.6% 0.0% 44.6% 17.1% 26.1% Logistic Regression 21.0% 71.4% 62.4% 62.4% 59.5% 73.0% 56.6% 57.0% 41.6% 47.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bebinca at 09/11/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 149 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 13.9% 35.9% 31.4% 3.6% 5.0% 13.8% 7.3% 29.6% 18.1% 35.9% RIPA Consensus 9.5% 55.2% 32.1% 28.3% 23.4% 46.4% 19.2% 48.2% 28.4% 53.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 10.9% 48.7% 31.8% 20.0% 17.3% 35.5% 15.2% 42.0% 25.0% 47.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 8.1% 48.7% 20.1% 12.7% 5.2% 31.4% 0.0% 47.3% 24.1% 53.8% Logistic Regression 10.9% 61.6% 44.0% 44.0% 41.7% 61.5% 38.5% 49.1% 32.8% 52.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bebinca at 09/11/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 161 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.8% 16.9% 8.2% 3.5% 1.8% 9.5% 5.2% 21.4% 4.7% 36.4% RIPA Consensus 3.8% 34.8% 15.9% 10.8% 10.3% 32.0% 8.0% 35.1% 19.4% 46.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.4% 28.8% 13.3% 8.3% 7.4% 24.5% 7.1% 30.5% 14.4% 43.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.9% 29.2% 11.7% 3.3% 2.3% 24.9% 0.0% 41.2% 24.2% 54.7% Logistic Regression 4.6% 40.5% 20.2% 18.3% 18.3% 39.2% 16.1% 28.9% 14.5% 39.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bebinca at 09/11/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 144 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.3% 23.9% 12.1% 2.6% 1.0% 9.0% 5.0% 15.8% 6.6% 49.8% RIPA Consensus 4.9% 41.4% 19.8% 12.8% 12.6% 32.5% 8.3% 34.9% 19.6% 43.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.3% 35.6% 17.2% 9.4% 8.7% 24.7% 7.1% 28.5% 15.2% 45.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.7% 36.9% 14.7% 3.7% 3.3% 25.1% 0.0% 41.6% 24.8% 56.5% Logistic Regression 6.1% 46.0% 24.9% 21.9% 21.9% 40.0% 16.5% 28.1% 14.5% 31.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bebinca at 09/11/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 146 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.7% 23.2% 6.6% 2.7% 1.5% 10.0% 4.5% 18.1% 5.0% 36.8% RIPA Consensus 21.1% 78.0% 57.8% 46.0% 45.0% 63.2% 29.5% 52.7% 33.6% 53.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 16.9% 59.7% 40.7% 31.6% 30.4% 45.5% 21.1% 41.1% 24.0% 48.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 18.7% 75.4% 47.7% 24.2% 24.2% 48.9% 0.0% 50.9% 24.8% 56.0% Logistic Regression 23.4% 80.6% 67.9% 67.9% 65.7% 77.6% 58.9% 54.4% 42.3% 51.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bebinca at 09/10/24 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 153 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 22.2% 48.5% 34.0% 19.9% 14.0% 32.0% 17.4% 29.4% 20.3% 46.2% RIPA Consensus 12.7% 72.5% 48.8% 40.1% 34.0% 61.1% 29.5% 52.9% 34.2% 58.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 15.8% 64.5% 43.8% 33.4% 27.3% 51.4% 25.4% 45.0% 29.6% 54.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 9.5% 67.5% 35.0% 18.2% 9.0% 44.6% 0.0% 51.2% 24.8% 61.1% Logistic Regression 15.9% 77.5% 62.5% 62.1% 58.9% 77.6% 58.9% 54.5% 43.7% 55.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fourteen at 09/10/24 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 150 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 15.7% 49.7% 28.3% 10.5% 11.8% 28.4% 13.7% 35.1% 24.6% 44.9% RIPA Consensus 7.5% 57.9% 32.1% 26.0% 21.6% 58.4% 28.7% 52.0% 35.1% 60.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 10.2% 55.1% 30.8% 20.8% 18.3% 48.4% 23.7% 46.3% 31.6% 55.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.8% 50.9% 19.9% 9.8% 3.5% 39.9% 0.0% 51.2% 24.8% 61.9% Logistic Regression 10.2% 64.9% 44.3% 42.3% 39.8% 76.9% 57.5% 52.8% 45.5% 59.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fourteen at 09/10/24 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 159 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.7% 30.6% 12.7% 2.9% 2.7% 14.6% 10.3% 28.2% 18.1% 51.0% RIPA Consensus 10.6% 66.9% 43.2% 33.1% 27.7% 63.7% 29.2% 53.9% 47.5% 66.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 8.6% 54.8% 33.0% 23.0% 19.3% 47.3% 22.9% 45.3% 37.6% 61.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 9.2% 62.1% 35.5% 18.2% 7.5% 49.1% 0.0% 51.6% 40.8% 61.9% Logistic Regression 12.0% 71.7% 51.0% 47.9% 47.9% 78.3% 58.4% 56.1% 54.1% 71.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fourteen at 09/10/24 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 149 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.3% 32.2% 8.1% 3.2% 0.9% 30.3% 11.4% 20.3% 13.3% 48.4% RIPA Consensus 6.0% 61.9% 36.7% 27.6% 25.5% 63.5% 30.9% 65.1% 64.7% 69.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.1% 52.0% 27.1% 19.4% 17.3% 52.4% 24.4% 50.1% 47.5% 62.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.7% 53.2% 23.7% 9.4% 5.4% 46.7% 0.0% 65.2% 65.2% 61.9% Logistic Regression 8.3% 70.6% 49.6% 45.7% 45.7% 80.4% 61.8% 65.0% 64.2% 76.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------