Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Barry at 06/30/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 118 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 2.1% 1.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.4% 2.7% 9.2% SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 5.1% 3.3% 2.6% 0.2% 2.8% 0.3% N/A AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 4.3% 2.8% 2.1% 0.1% 2.2% 0.9% N/A SHIPS-RII 1.5% 11.3% 7.4% 5.8% 0.0% 7.2% 0.0% N/A AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 1.3% 4.6% Logistic Regression 2.1% 3.8% 2.4% 2.0% 0.5% 1.2% 1.0% N/A Bayesian 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Barry at 06/29/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 122 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 3.4% 1.5% 2.2% 0.1% 1.2% 1.3% 7.6% SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 5.2% 3.4% 2.6% 0.1% 3.0% 0.4% N/A AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 4.7% 2.9% 2.5% 0.1% 2.5% 0.6% N/A SHIPS-RII 2.1% 12.0% 8.0% 6.1% 0.0% 7.6% 0.0% N/A AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 2.2% 1.2% 1.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.6% 3.8% Logistic Regression 2.9% 3.5% 2.0% 1.6% 0.4% 1.4% 1.1% N/A Bayesian 2.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% N/A DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Barry at 06/29/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 138 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 3.6% 2.3% 0.8% 0.1% 1.2% 7.4% 10.6% SHIPS Consensus 4.4% 9.0% 6.0% 4.8% 1.9% 4.1% 3.2% N/A AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 7.1% 4.6% 3.5% 1.3% 3.1% 3.8% N/A SHIPS-RII 3.5% 14.3% 9.5% 7.0% 3.6% 8.6% 7.2% N/A AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 1.8% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.6% 3.7% 5.3% Logistic Regression 7.1% 11.9% 7.7% 6.6% 1.8% 3.6% 2.4% N/A Bayesian 2.4% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% N/A DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Two at 06/29/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 135 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.8% 4.6% 3.8% 2.1% 0.1% 0.6% 4.9% 4.3% SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 8.0% 4.7% 2.9% 0.4% 1.1% 2.8% 1.6% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 7.1% 4.5% 2.7% 0.3% 0.9% 3.3% 2.3% SHIPS-RII 1.4% 11.7% 7.4% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.4% 2.3% 1.9% 1.0% 0.0% 0.3% 2.4% 2.1% Logistic Regression 4.0% 12.2% 6.8% 3.8% 1.2% 3.2% 2.6% 3.4% Bayesian 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Two at 06/29/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 121 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 7.0% 3.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 8.3% SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 6.9% 4.3% 3.1% 0.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 6.9% 4.0% 2.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 2.4% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 11.7% 7.5% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 3.5% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 4.1% Logistic Regression 3.3% 8.8% 5.2% 3.9% 1.0% 2.1% 1.3% 1.4% Bayesian 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Two at 06/28/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 114 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.4% 6.6% 8.8% 2.0% 0.6% 2.1% 3.8% 3.8% SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 8.4% 4.5% 3.0% 0.6% 1.2% 3.0% 3.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 7.9% 5.5% 2.7% 0.6% 1.4% 3.2% 3.2% SHIPS-RII 1.3% 11.2% 7.0% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.2% 3.8% 4.4% 1.0% 0.3% 1.0% 1.9% 1.9% Logistic Regression 3.2% 13.7% 6.3% 4.3% 1.8% 3.5% 3.1% 6.3% Bayesian 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------