Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Erin at 08/23/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 87 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/22/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 84 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/22/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 92 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/22/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 108 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/22/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 102 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/21/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 101 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 3.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 2.5% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.9% 9.5% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/21/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 114 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 4.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 3.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.1% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.3% 1.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/21/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 123 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 4.1% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 3.1% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.2% 10.7% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.3% 1.8% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/21/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 138 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 5.9% 4.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 4.5% 3.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.6% 12.5% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.1% 5.3% 3.3% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/20/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 144 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 9.9% 7.2% 5.1% 4.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.5% 5.4% 3.8% 3.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 8.0% 15.2% 11.3% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.8% 1.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 7.9% 5.9% 3.7% 1.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 13.8% 0.3% 0.2% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/20/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 155 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.3% 0.8% 1.7% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 9.4% 8.7% 6.0% 5.1% 3.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.2% 7.0% 5.2% 4.6% 2.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.5% 15.2% 11.2% 8.8% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 8.1% 3.4% 2.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 9.7% 9.8% 6.4% 4.5% 1.9% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian 10.8% 1.1% 0.6% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/20/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 158 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 15.2% 1.0% 0.7% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 7.6% 9.9% 6.9% 6.0% 3.9% 4.9% 0.2% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.4% 7.7% 5.3% 4.9% 3.0% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.0% 17.0% 11.9% 9.5% 7.9% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 13.1% 10.0% 2.8% 1.8% 1.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% Logistic Regression 9.7% 12.3% 8.4% 7.4% 3.8% 3.5% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian 5.9% 0.5% 0.4% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 11.0% 19.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/20/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 159 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.1% 2.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 7.6% 10.1% 6.8% 6.3% 3.8% 5.6% 0.4% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.7% 8.1% 5.4% 4.7% 2.8% 4.2% 0.3% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.4% 17.1% 12.1% 9.5% 7.7% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 7.3% 11.7% 7.3% 7.4% 3.6% 5.1% 1.3% 0.0% Bayesian 8.2% 1.4% 0.9% 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/19/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 148 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 25.8% 1.3% 6.9% 12.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 5.1% 3.3% 3.0% 2.4% 3.9% 0.4% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.8% 4.1% 4.1% 5.4% 2.0% 2.9% 0.3% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.0% 11.1% 7.6% 6.2% 5.5% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 13.9% 3.1% 4.9% 6.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.3% 4.1% 2.1% 2.9% 1.8% 2.6% 1.3% 0.0% Bayesian 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/19/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 144 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 3.0% 1.8% 1.5% 1.1% 2.8% 0.3% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 2.3% 1.3% 1.1% 0.8% 2.0% 0.2% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.4% 7.4% 4.7% 3.7% 2.7% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 1.7% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 1.4% 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 1.0% 0.9% 0.0% Bayesian 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/19/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 145 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.0% 0.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 3.4% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 2.7% 0.2% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 2.7% 1.7% 1.4% 1.3% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 8.1% 5.4% 4.6% 4.4% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.7% 1.5% 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/19/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 141 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.1% 1.0% 1.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 4.9% 3.4% 1.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.6% 3.9% 3.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.4% 10.4% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 4.0% 0.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.1% 3.9% 2.4% 2.9% 2.1% 1.4% 0.9% 0.1% Bayesian 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/18/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 142 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.2% 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 6.8% 6.1% 1.5% 1.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.3% 4.8% 1.2% 1.2% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 8.0% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 9.0% 5.4% 3.6% 4.3% 2.3% 2.2% 1.0% 0.1% Bayesian 3.3% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/18/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 145 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.4% 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 9.2% 1.9% 1.3% 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.7% 1.7% 1.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 10.4% 3.9% 2.5% 2.9% 1.4% 1.5% 1.3% 0.2% Bayesian 6.5% 1.9% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/18/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 145 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.4% 2.3% 1.9% 1.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.8% 5.6% 3.9% 1.2% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.4% 4.8% 3.4% 1.3% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.8% 10.9% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 8.7% 1.6% 1.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 6.2% 3.7% 2.3% 3.2% 2.1% 2.0% 1.4% 0.2% Bayesian 3.3% 2.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 9.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/18/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 142 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 20.2% 1.7% 2.9% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 5.4% 5.9% 4.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.1% 4.8% 3.7% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 7.9% 11.0% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 21.1% 3.3% 4.4% 1.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 6.4% 3.3% 2.3% 1.9% 1.3% 1.0% 1.4% 0.3% Bayesian 2.0% 3.3% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 22.0% 5.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/17/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 144 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 13.4% 1.6% 2.3% 0.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 7.8% 8.2% 5.4% 1.8% 1.6% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.1% 6.5% 4.6% 1.5% 1.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 9.3% 12.2% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 24.7% 6.3% 7.1% 1.8% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 10.6% 7.5% 4.9% 5.2% 4.6% 3.1% 1.4% 0.3% Bayesian 3.4% 4.9% 2.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 36.0% 11.0% 12.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/17/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 151 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.0% 2.6% 0.7% 1.4% 1.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 5.1% 3.5% 2.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.2% 4.5% 2.7% 2.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.9% 10.6% 7.6% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 15.5% 9.3% 6.8% 2.2% 2.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.3% 3.4% 1.8% 1.8% 2.3% 1.8% 0.9% 0.2% Bayesian 0.9% 1.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 25.0% 16.0% 13.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/17/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 148 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 10.4% 2.5% 1.2% 2.5% 2.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 3.2% 2.0% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.7% 3.0% 1.8% 2.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.7% 7.3% 4.9% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 11.2% 12.7% 10.1% 2.7% 3.9% 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.7% 1.6% 0.9% 1.1% 1.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian 4.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 12.0% 23.0% 19.0% 3.0% 5.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/17/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 147 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.6% 1.4% 2.2% 2.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 4.5% 1.9% 1.1% 0.7% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.5% 1.7% 1.4% 1.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 7.3% 3.2% 3.6% 1.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 5.2% 4.9% 3.0% 2.2% 2.3% 1.5% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian 1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 6.0% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/16/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 140 kts, MPI = 146 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.9% 1.2% 0.7% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 16.8% 11.5% 10.2% 6.1% 2.0% 4.0% 1.7% 0.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 13.3% 8.9% 7.8% 4.9% 1.5% 3.0% 1.3% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 9.9% 1.6% 1.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 50.5% 34.0% 30.5% 18.4% 6.0% 11.9% 5.2% 0.8% Bayesian 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 17.0% 2.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/16/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 130 kts, MPI = 148 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 13.5% 5.6% 3.2% 4.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 21.4% 28.1% 26.7% 12.4% 4.5% 8.2% 2.6% 0.6% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 19.4% 22.4% 20.8% 10.3% 3.5% 6.2% 2.0% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 34.7% 9.8% 12.6% 7.6% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 63.0% 53.6% 51.2% 35.9% 12.2% 24.4% 7.8% 1.8% Bayesian 1.1% 30.6% 29.0% 1.4% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 56.0% 14.0% 22.0% 11.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/16/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 149 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 40.3% 20.3% 26.9% 15.4% 8.0% 6.4% 3.6% 1.0% SHIPS Consensus 39.4% 36.4% 40.3% 23.2% 11.0% 16.2% 9.9% 1.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 39.6% 32.4% 36.9% 21.2% 10.2% 13.7% 8.3% 1.3% SHIPS-RII 36.3% 46.0% 37.5% 28.5% 19.7% 20.8% 20.7% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 43.1% 42.1% 39.4% 29.7% 19.0% 32.2% 28.8% 2.0% Logistic Regression 27.8% 33.2% 29.8% 18.5% 6.5% 18.1% 8.3% 4.2% Bayesian 54.2% 30.1% 53.7% 22.5% 6.6% 9.7% 0.8% 0.1% DTOPS 46.0% 64.0% 52.0% 44.0% 30.0% 58.0% 54.0% 3.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/16/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 147 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 40.7% 21.9% 23.0% 31.7% 11.7% 15.1% 18.1% 7.0% SHIPS Consensus 18.8% 27.0% 24.9% 15.1% 9.1% 14.3% 10.3% 8.6% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 24.2% 25.7% 24.4% 19.2% 9.7% 14.4% 12.2% 8.1% SHIPS-RII 21.7% 38.8% 27.9% 23.1% 19.5% 19.5% 18.7% 20.4% AI-RI and DTOPS 39.3% 50.4% 42.0% 39.3% 24.8% 46.5% 45.5% 15.5% Logistic Regression 12.8% 17.0% 13.6% 6.8% 2.4% 7.2% 7.0% 3.8% Bayesian 21.8% 25.2% 33.3% 15.3% 5.4% 16.1% 5.2% 1.5% DTOPS 38.0% 79.0% 61.0% 47.0% 38.0% 78.0% 73.0% 24.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/15/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 142 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 35.3% 39.8% 25.9% 26.9% 11.8% 26.3% 18.2% 22.1% SHIPS Consensus 13.3% 24.9% 20.6% 12.8% 9.0% 14.2% 13.2% 9.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 18.7% 28.6% 21.9% 16.3% 9.7% 17.2% 14.4% 12.5% SHIPS-RII 16.3% 35.3% 23.6% 22.3% 20.3% 20.1% 19.1% 21.8% AI-RI and DTOPS 47.1% 63.9% 49.4% 37.4% 22.4% 40.1% 50.6% 30.0% Logistic Regression 15.9% 20.1% 20.4% 13.4% 4.7% 10.5% 8.5% 4.8% Bayesian 7.6% 19.3% 17.7% 2.7% 2.0% 12.1% 11.9% 1.5% DTOPS 59.0% 88.0% 73.0% 48.0% 33.0% 54.0% 83.0% 38.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/15/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 143 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 28.8% 41.5% 27.1% 20.1% 10.5% 33.3% 33.8% 28.1% SHIPS Consensus 11.8% 21.6% 21.1% 12.1% 8.4% 14.1% 11.1% 9.9% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 16.0% 26.5% 22.6% 14.1% 8.9% 18.9% 16.7% 14.4% SHIPS-RII 13.8% 34.7% 22.7% 21.3% 19.4% 18.9% 18.6% 22.1% AI-RI and DTOPS 25.9% 52.2% 37.5% 27.5% 21.7% 42.1% 56.9% 31.5% Logistic Regression 14.9% 21.4% 21.4% 12.6% 4.2% 9.9% 7.7% 6.1% Bayesian 6.7% 8.6% 19.4% 2.5% 1.7% 13.6% 7.1% 1.6% DTOPS 23.0% 63.0% 48.0% 35.0% 33.0% 51.0% 80.0% 35.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/15/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 136 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.0% 19.8% 14.4% 15.9% 5.8% 23.6% 12.8% 30.2% SHIPS Consensus 13.7% 25.6% 26.9% 14.4% 9.3% 20.2% 19.1% 12.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 11.2% 24.1% 23.7% 14.7% 8.3% 21.0% 17.5% 16.6% SHIPS-RII 15.8% 44.9% 31.6% 24.2% 20.9% 29.1% 23.5% 23.5% AI-RI and DTOPS 14.5% 33.9% 20.7% 14.4% 10.4% 16.3% 28.9% 44.1% Logistic Regression 15.9% 24.7% 24.7% 14.8% 4.3% 11.6% 9.0% 9.2% Bayesian 9.4% 7.1% 24.3% 4.3% 2.5% 20.0% 24.8% 3.7% DTOPS 25.0% 48.0% 27.0% 13.0% 15.0% 9.0% 45.0% 58.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/15/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 130 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 29.8% 32.9% 12.9% 10.2% 9.5% 25.4% 19.7% 24.7% SHIPS Consensus 23.6% 47.5% 41.3% 20.9% 12.8% 31.0% 24.8% 12.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 23.3% 42.6% 30.4% 15.9% 11.0% 28.1% 18.2% 15.2% SHIPS-RII 21.2% 53.0% 39.7% 32.9% 28.8% 40.2% 28.1% 24.4% AI-RI and DTOPS 20.9% 26.9% 11.9% 9.6% 9.2% 15.7% 23.3% 30.8% Logistic Regression 28.1% 32.0% 38.2% 21.8% 5.6% 16.6% 9.9% 7.9% Bayesian 21.5% 57.5% 46.0% 8.0% 4.1% 36.1% 36.6% 4.2% DTOPS 12.0% 24.0% 11.0% 9.0% 10.0% 7.0% 27.0% 37.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/14/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 125 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 11.4% 17.0% 13.7% 5.2% 2.6% 16.3% 23.1% 30.6% SHIPS Consensus 9.0% 20.8% 18.3% 7.8% 4.8% 13.3% 17.3% 11.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.6% 19.8% 17.1% 7.1% 4.3% 14.0% 18.7% 15.8% SHIPS-RII 7.2% 35.9% 21.3% 13.5% 11.7% 19.7% 26.7% 24.8% AI-RI and DTOPS 8.7% 27.0% 18.8% 9.6% 3.3% 17.6% 23.5% 35.3% Logistic Regression 14.7% 23.8% 24.6% 9.4% 2.6% 11.2% 6.7% 5.5% Bayesian 5.2% 2.6% 8.9% 0.6% 0.3% 9.2% 18.6% 2.6% DTOPS 6.0% 37.0% 24.0% 14.0% 4.0% 19.0% 24.0% 40.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/14/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 134 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.1% 11.2% 9.5% 6.3% 1.3% 18.9% 11.9% 28.4% SHIPS Consensus 7.4% 18.4% 16.2% 6.7% 3.8% 14.2% 17.8% 13.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.6% 16.6% 14.5% 6.6% 3.1% 15.4% 16.2% 17.3% SHIPS-RII 6.3% 31.7% 17.8% 10.3% 8.3% 19.6% 29.8% 26.8% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.5% 12.6% 8.7% 5.6% 1.6% 13.4% 17.4% 26.2% Logistic Regression 11.7% 21.8% 21.5% 8.9% 2.5% 11.0% 7.8% 9.1% Bayesian 4.3% 1.8% 9.4% 0.9% 0.5% 12.1% 15.6% 5.2% DTOPS 3.0% 14.0% 8.0% 5.0% 2.0% 8.0% 23.0% 24.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/14/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 129 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.0% 7.1% 4.5% 2.7% 1.6% 19.4% 9.1% 22.3% SHIPS Consensus 4.1% 12.2% 9.9% 5.1% 3.2% 8.1% 11.3% 14.8% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.5% 10.8% 8.5% 4.5% 2.7% 10.9% 10.7% 16.6% SHIPS-RII 4.3% 17.4% 11.8% 9.0% 7.4% 13.3% 21.1% 27.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 4.0% 11.0% 6.2% 3.8% 1.8% 21.2% 28.5% 22.1% Logistic Regression 7.0% 16.6% 15.0% 6.0% 2.0% 8.0% 7.8% 11.5% Bayesian 0.9% 2.4% 2.8% 0.3% 0.1% 3.1% 4.9% 5.9% DTOPS 2.0% 15.0% 8.0% 5.0% 2.0% 23.0% 48.0% 22.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/14/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 117 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 11.0% 9.6% 7.6% 2.6% 2.5% 23.6% 13.7% 23.6% SHIPS Consensus 4.2% 12.9% 9.4% 5.0% 3.4% 10.3% 17.1% 19.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.9% 12.0% 8.9% 4.3% 3.1% 13.6% 16.2% 20.1% SHIPS-RII 4.1% 17.2% 11.6% 8.8% 7.3% 13.3% 22.3% 27.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 7.0% 23.8% 16.3% 11.3% 5.7% 42.3% 37.8% 26.8% Logistic Regression 7.4% 19.0% 14.3% 5.7% 2.9% 14.3% 15.7% 21.6% Bayesian 1.1% 2.5% 2.4% 0.3% 0.1% 3.3% 13.4% 8.3% DTOPS 3.0% 38.0% 25.0% 20.0% 9.0% 61.0% 62.0% 30.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/13/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 109 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.7% 5.5% 4.0% 2.1% 0.7% 15.7% 13.2% 24.2% SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 10.7% 8.0% 4.1% 2.7% 8.0% 13.6% 22.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 9.4% 7.0% 3.5% 2.2% 9.9% 13.4% 22.7% SHIPS-RII 3.8% 16.1% 11.0% 8.4% 6.8% 12.9% 23.1% 29.3% AI-RI and DTOPS 4.8% 16.7% 11.5% 10.5% 3.3% 43.3% 40.6% 26.1% Logistic Regression 5.5% 13.6% 11.0% 3.7% 1.3% 6.9% 10.0% 21.0% Bayesian 1.2% 2.4% 2.1% 0.1% 0.1% 4.3% 7.6% 16.4% DTOPS 5.0% 28.0% 19.0% 19.0% 6.0% 71.0% 68.0% 28.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/13/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 97 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 1.8% 1.9% 1.6% 0.2% 8.7% 2.9% 17.3% SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 8.6% 6.2% 3.6% 2.5% 5.8% 7.1% 15.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 6.9% 5.1% 3.1% 1.9% 6.5% 6.0% 15.8% SHIPS-RII 2.6% 14.7% 10.0% 7.8% 6.4% 11.8% 15.0% 24.5% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.8% 3.9% 2.9% 1.8% 0.6% 5.8% 7.9% 13.1% Logistic Regression 3.6% 10.5% 7.9% 3.1% 1.2% 5.2% 6.0% 14.1% Bayesian 0.4% 0.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 7.5% DTOPS 3.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 13.0% 9.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/13/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 102 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.2% 4.1% 3.0% 2.2% 0.7% 9.8% 6.0% 18.9% SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 10.8% 7.6% 4.9% 3.3% 7.3% 7.5% 17.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 9.1% 6.4% 4.2% 2.6% 7.9% 7.1% 17.4% SHIPS-RII 3.0% 14.9% 10.3% 8.2% 6.7% 11.9% 14.4% 24.2% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.1% 7.0% 4.5% 3.6% 1.3% 6.4% 4.5% 14.9% Logistic Regression 4.9% 13.9% 10.8% 6.3% 3.0% 8.8% 7.5% 14.2% Bayesian 0.6% 3.5% 1.6% 0.2% 0.2% 1.2% 0.5% 12.5% DTOPS 4.0% 9.0% 6.0% 5.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 11.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/13/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 99 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.0% 3.8% 4.3% 2.9% 0.6% 4.3% 8.3% 11.9% SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 9.8% 6.8% 4.9% 3.5% 7.7% 7.0% 16.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 8.3% 6.2% 4.3% 2.7% 6.8% 7.3% 15.0% SHIPS-RII 3.0% 14.4% 10.0% 8.1% 6.6% 11.8% 13.7% 23.6% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.0% 3.9% 3.6% 2.9% 0.8% 2.6% 4.6% 7.4% Logistic Regression 3.4% 13.2% 9.7% 6.5% 3.7% 10.4% 6.9% 15.8% Bayesian 0.3% 1.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 0.4% 8.7% DTOPS 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/12/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 83 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 3.1% 1.0% 1.7% 0.2% 5.3% 5.3% 13.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 9.0% 5.4% 3.4% 2.6% 5.6% 6.3% 13.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 7.5% 4.3% 3.0% 2.0% 5.5% 6.0% 13.2% SHIPS-RII 3.1% 15.1% 10.5% 8.4% 6.8% 12.2% 14.1% 24.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 9.4% 13.0% 8.5% 9.3% 2.6% 7.1% 8.1% 15.0% Logistic Regression 2.1% 8.6% 5.1% 1.9% 1.0% 3.8% 4.7% 14.2% Bayesian 0.3% 3.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 1.8% DTOPS 18.0% 23.0% 16.0% 17.0% 5.0% 9.0% 11.0% 17.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/12/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 79 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 2.2% 0.7% 2.1% 0.1% 3.5% 2.5% 8.4% SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 7.0% 4.1% 2.8% 2.3% 4.7% 6.2% 12.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 5.8% 3.3% 2.6% 1.7% 4.4% 5.3% 11.2% SHIPS-RII 1.8% 13.9% 9.5% 7.5% 6.2% 11.1% 12.7% 22.7% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 2.1% 0.8% 1.5% 0.0% 1.7% 1.7% 6.7% Logistic Regression 1.4% 5.9% 2.8% 1.0% 0.6% 2.9% 6.0% 13.8% Bayesian 0.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 5.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/12/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 82 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.0% 3.4% 0.8% 3.1% 0.1% 2.8% 5.7% 8.4% SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 8.8% 4.7% 3.1% 0.5% 5.6% 7.7% 11.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 7.5% 3.6% 3.0% 0.3% 4.8% 7.1% 10.4% SHIPS-RII 2.0% 13.7% 9.3% 7.2% 0.0% 11.1% 13.0% 22.7% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.5% 4.2% 1.4% 2.5% 0.0% 1.9% 3.8% 8.2% Logistic Regression 2.7% 8.8% 4.1% 1.9% 1.3% 4.9% 7.9% 10.1% Bayesian 1.6% 4.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 2.1% 0.6% DTOPS 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 8.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/12/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 73 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.7% 6.0% 4.4% 5.1% 0.5% 2.0% 6.9% 10.9% SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 13.0% 6.8% 4.5% 1.4% 8.6% 8.6% 12.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.2% 11.1% 6.1% 4.7% 1.2% 7.1% 8.0% 11.8% SHIPS-RII 3.3% 15.4% 10.6% 8.3% 0.0% 12.2% 14.1% 23.7% AI-RI and DTOPS 5.3% 10.0% 5.2% 4.5% 0.7% 2.5% 5.9% 14.4% Logistic Regression 4.3% 17.3% 8.9% 4.9% 4.1% 12.2% 10.5% 13.8% Bayesian 1.8% 6.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 1.4% 1.1% 0.5% DTOPS 3.0% 14.0% 6.0% 4.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 18.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/11/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 82 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 3.5% 1.9% 2.6% 0.0% 1.6% 4.3% 11.9% SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 14.6% 7.7% 4.5% 1.0% 4.2% 7.5% 3.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 11.8% 6.2% 3.9% 0.7% 3.5% 6.6% 5.2% SHIPS-RII 4.7% 17.1% 11.9% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.2% 13.2% 5.4% 3.8% 1.0% 3.8% 10.6% 20.4% Logistic Regression 4.0% 20.9% 9.9% 4.3% 2.9% 11.5% 6.5% 8.3% Bayesian 2.6% 5.7% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 1.0% 0.9% 0.7% DTOPS 6.0% 23.0% 9.0% 5.0% 2.0% 6.0% 17.0% 29.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erin at 08/11/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 63 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 3.3% 1.6% 2.4% 0.1% 0.7% 0.9% 11.9% SHIPS Consensus 6.7% 21.9% 10.1% 5.3% 1.7% 6.9% 7.5% 7.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.2% 17.2% 8.0% 4.5% 1.3% 5.3% 5.8% 8.3% SHIPS-RII 4.8% 17.5% 12.2% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.8% 5.6% 2.8% 2.7% 1.5% 1.3% 2.4% 10.4% Logistic Regression 8.0% 29.3% 15.5% 5.8% 4.4% 17.5% 16.8% 20.3% Bayesian 7.4% 19.0% 2.7% 0.9% 0.7% 3.3% 5.8% 1.3% DTOPS 3.0% 8.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 4.0% 9.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------