Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Six intensity image current Six RI diff image

 


Fernand at 08/28/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 15 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 4.6% 3.2% 2.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 3.5% 2.4% 1.7% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% N/A SHIPS-RII 3.8% 12.2% 8.9% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% Logistic Regression 1.2% 1.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% N/A
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fernand at 08/28/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 27 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.9% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 5.7% 3.9% 2.8% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 3.8% 2.6% 1.9% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% N/A SHIPS-RII 5.6% 14.4% 10.5% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% Logistic Regression 1.8% 2.6% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.9% 0.2% N/A
Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fernand at 08/27/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 71 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 5.7% SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 6.3% 4.3% 3.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 4.8% 3.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 1.4% SHIPS-RII 6.0% 15.3% 11.2% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 2.8% Logistic Regression 1.8% 3.6% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fernand at 08/27/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 77 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 5.0% 3.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 3.8% 2.5% 1.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.7% SHIPS-RII 3.2% 12.6% 9.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% Logistic Regression 1.0% 2.5% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fernand at 08/27/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 70 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 4.5% 3.1% 2.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 3.3% 2.3% 1.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.9% SHIPS-RII 2.6% 11.1% 8.2% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.9% Logistic Regression 0.9% 2.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fernand at 08/27/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 71 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 4.3% 2.9% 2.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 2.8% 1.8% 1.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.8% SHIPS-RII 1.6% 10.0% 7.4% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% Logistic Regression 1.0% 2.8% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fernand at 08/26/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 68 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.6% SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 5.0% 3.3% 2.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 3.7% 2.5% 1.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 2.3% 12.6% 8.9% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.8% Logistic Regression 0.7% 2.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fernand at 08/26/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 76 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 5.0% 3.3% 2.4% 1.7% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 3.7% 2.5% 1.7% 1.2% 2.6% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 2.1% 12.8% 9.0% 6.8% 5.1% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% Logistic Regression 0.7% 2.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fernand at 08/26/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 81 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 3.3% 2.2% 1.6% 0.0% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 2.5% 1.6% 1.2% 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 1.4% 9.3% 6.4% 4.8% 0.0% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fernand at 08/26/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 84 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 3.4% 2.3% 1.8% 1.3% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.6% 1.7% 1.4% 1.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 9.5% 6.6% 5.3% 4.0% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fernand at 08/25/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 92 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.9% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 3.7% 2.6% 2.1% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 2.9% 1.9% 1.6% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% SHIPS-RII 2.5% 10.2% 7.4% 6.0% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% Logistic Regression 0.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fernand at 08/25/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 110 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 1.6% 0.2% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 4.5% 3.0% 2.9% 1.9% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 2.9% 1.7% 1.8% 1.1% 2.7% 0.0% 0.6% SHIPS-RII 2.7% 10.2% 7.3% 6.2% 4.7% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% Logistic Regression 2.3% 3.2% 1.8% 2.5% 0.9% 4.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fernand at 08/25/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 111 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.3% 2.5% 0.7% 1.9% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 3.3% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 4.9% 3.4% 2.9% 1.8% 5.0% 0.3% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 4.3% 2.6% 2.6% 1.4% 3.7% 0.3% 0.8% SHIPS-RII 2.9% 10.8% 7.7% 6.4% 4.9% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.6% Logistic Regression 2.3% 4.0% 2.4% 2.2% 0.7% 5.4% 1.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fernand at 08/25/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 140 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.3% 3.3% 2.3% 2.9% 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 6.7% SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 9.9% 7.5% 6.2% 3.2% 9.7% 5.9% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 8.2% 6.2% 5.3% 2.4% 7.4% 4.4% 1.7% SHIPS-RII 6.1% 15.3% 11.0% 8.9% 6.7% 11.6% 12.7% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.6% 2.1% 1.6% 1.9% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 3.3% Logistic Regression 5.9% 14.0% 11.4% 9.4% 2.9% 17.4% 5.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fernand at 08/24/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 148 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 12.8% 5.7% 2.0% 8.6% 0.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 5.3% 9.6% 8.0% 5.4% 2.7% 7.6% 5.2% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.1% 8.6% 6.5% 6.2% 2.2% 5.8% 4.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.6% 15.3% 10.9% 8.5% 6.4% 11.3% 12.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.4% 3.8% 1.5% 4.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Logistic Regression 8.7% 13.3% 13.0% 7.6% 1.7% 11.4% 3.8% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fernand at 08/24/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 154 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.3% 3.7% 3.3% 5.2% 0.1% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 7.3% 5.8% 3.6% 2.0% 4.8% 4.3% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 6.3% 5.1% 3.9% 1.5% 3.9% 3.4% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.8% 12.3% 8.6% 6.5% 5.0% 9.5% 9.8% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.6% 2.8% 2.1% 2.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.8% 9.6% 8.7% 4.2% 0.9% 4.9% 3.2% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fernand at 08/24/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 164 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 2.1% 1.2% 1.3% 0.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 7.6% 5.7% 3.3% 2.0% 4.4% 4.8% 6.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 6.2% 4.5% 2.8% 1.4% 3.6% 3.6% 4.5% SHIPS-RII 2.4% 12.6% 8.6% 6.5% 5.1% 9.6% 10.5% 17.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.3% 2.5% 1.6% 1.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 4.2% 10.1% 8.4% 3.5% 0.8% 3.7% 3.8% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fernand at 08/24/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 159 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.9% 3.5% 1.0% 2.0% 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% 1.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 10.5% 7.9% 5.0% 2.7% 5.7% 5.1% 5.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 8.7% 6.1% 4.2% 2.1% 4.5% 3.9% 4.7% SHIPS-RII 3.4% 14.8% 10.1% 7.7% 6.1% 10.4% 10.3% 17.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.4% 3.7% 1.5% 1.5% 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.5% Logistic Regression 4.7% 16.5% 13.4% 7.4% 2.1% 6.8% 5.0% 0.3%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Fernand at 08/23/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 151 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.0% 9.7% 5.7% 8.4% 0.6% 4.1% 2.5% 6.4% SHIPS Consensus 6.2% 20.1% 12.7% 8.9% 4.6% 11.8% 12.4% 7.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.1% 17.5% 10.9% 8.7% 3.5% 9.9% 9.9% 7.4% SHIPS-RII 5.5% 20.2% 12.5% 9.6% 7.5% 12.4% 13.0% 20.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 5.0% 11.8% 5.8% 5.2% 0.8% 2.5% 1.2% 3.7% Logistic Regression 10.9% 31.4% 23.0% 16.0% 6.2% 22.6% 24.0% 3.0%
Bayesian 2.1% 8.7% 2.7% 1.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 14.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------