Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Humberto intensity image current Humberto RI diff image

 


Humberto at 10/01/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 103 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 1.9% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Humberto at 10/01/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 90 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 1.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Humberto at 10/01/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 96 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Humberto at 09/30/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 102 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Humberto at 09/30/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 115 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Humberto at 09/30/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 134 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Humberto at 09/30/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 133 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Humberto at 09/29/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 138 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 1.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Humberto at 09/29/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Humberto at 09/29/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 151 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Humberto at 09/29/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 2.4% 1.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Humberto at 09/28/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 9.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 6.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Humberto at 09/28/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 130 kts, MPI = 154 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.5% 2.0% 1.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Humberto at 09/28/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 135 kts, MPI = 153 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.5% 2.0% 1.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Humberto at 09/28/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 140 kts, MPI = 151 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 1.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.4% 2.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Bayesian 2.1% 2.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Humberto at 09/27/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 135 kts, MPI = 154 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 2.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 1.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.1% 1.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.7% 3.0% 2.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0%
Bayesian 2.5% 3.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 12.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Humberto at 09/27/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 155 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 12.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 1.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.0% 1.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 13.8% 2.0% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.7% 3.8% 2.6% 1.2% 0.8% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 15.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Humberto at 09/27/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 155 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 22.7% 1.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.5% 5.8% 4.5% 2.2% 0.9% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.8% 4.6% 3.6% 1.8% 0.7% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 19.8% 2.0% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 11.3% 16.3% 13.1% 6.7% 2.8% 4.7% 2.1% 0.4%
Bayesian 5.4% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 17.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Humberto at 09/27/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 155 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 7.3% 1.6% 1.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 8.6% 9.7% 8.5% 3.7% 0.9% 2.8% 1.9% 0.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.2% 7.6% 6.6% 3.0% 0.7% 2.1% 1.4% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 38.1% 17.8% 16.6% 7.4% 2.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 25.8% 28.9% 25.3% 11.2% 2.8% 8.5% 5.8% 1.5%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 69.0% 34.0% 32.0% 14.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Humberto at 09/26/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 157 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 14.6% 5.2% 6.5% 6.3% 2.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 25.2% 24.2% 22.6% 13.4% 5.7% 3.1% 1.8% 0.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 22.5% 19.4% 18.5% 11.6% 4.7% 2.5% 1.5% 0.7% SHIPS-RII 39.8% 38.4% 34.2% 25.5% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 42.8% 44.6% 41.7% 30.1% 24.0% 27.4% 9.8% 0.3% Logistic Regression 19.0% 29.0% 26.6% 13.0% 3.5% 9.2% 5.4% 2.4%
Bayesian 17.0% 5.3% 7.0% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 71.0% 84.0% 77.0% 54.0% 46.0% 54.0% 19.0% 0.0%
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Humberto at 09/26/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 156 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 44.1% 19.0% 16.9% 8.8% 2.8% 4.7% 0.8% 3.0% SHIPS Consensus 27.4% 32.2% 33.2% 23.1% 11.9% 16.0% 9.1% 1.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 31.5% 28.9% 29.1% 19.5% 9.6% 13.1% 7.0% 1.9% SHIPS-RII 31.4% 41.9% 34.4% 28.7% 20.4% 26.7% 20.3% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 46.0% 56.0% 50.4% 34.4% 16.9% 48.8% 43.9% 7.5% Logistic Regression 24.6% 37.7% 38.5% 26.5% 8.7% 16.3% 6.7% 4.6%
Bayesian 26.0% 17.1% 26.6% 14.0% 6.6% 5.0% 0.2% 0.0%
DTOPS 48.0% 93.0% 84.0% 60.0% 31.0% 93.0% 87.0% 12.0%
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Humberto at 09/26/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 153 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 33.9% 14.0% 10.4% 5.5% 3.2% 2.5% 3.0% 11.1% SHIPS Consensus 8.1% 16.3% 13.3% 11.0% 5.7% 10.6% 6.9% 7.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 14.5% 15.7% 12.5% 9.6% 5.0% 8.5% 5.9% 8.7% SHIPS-RII 8.6% 28.5% 18.8% 17.4% 11.3% 18.2% 14.4% 18.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 19.9% 26.5% 11.7% 5.2% 3.6% 13.7% 21.0% 14.0% Logistic Regression 12.3% 16.9% 15.8% 14.0% 4.8% 12.0% 6.3% 4.9%
Bayesian 3.4% 3.7% 5.2% 1.7% 0.8% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 6.0% 39.0% 13.0% 5.0% 4.0% 25.0% 39.0% 17.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Humberto at 09/26/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 151 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 18.2% 12.3% 11.1% 4.6% 3.1% 4.6% 5.4% 12.8% SHIPS Consensus 12.3% 16.9% 13.2% 11.0% 4.6% 11.2% 7.6% 8.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 13.7% 15.7% 12.6% 9.3% 4.2% 9.5% 7.0% 9.5% SHIPS-RII 10.8% 24.7% 17.7% 15.6% 8.2% 16.4% 14.6% 18.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 13.1% 15.1% 9.0% 4.8% 3.0% 9.3% 24.7% 10.9% Logistic Regression 14.0% 15.8% 13.8% 14.7% 4.6% 14.7% 8.0% 6.8%
Bayesian 12.0% 10.1% 8.1% 2.6% 1.0% 2.6% 0.2% 0.0%
DTOPS 8.0% 18.0% 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% 14.0% 44.0% 9.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Humberto at 09/25/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 7.6% 8.6% 5.0% 4.5% 2.0% 3.2% 2.6% 9.8% SHIPS Consensus 6.0% 10.6% 7.5% 7.0% 3.7% 9.4% 7.5% 8.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.4% 10.0% 6.8% 6.3% 3.2% 7.8% 6.2% 8.7% SHIPS-RII 7.0% 16.9% 12.1% 9.7% 7.2% 12.8% 13.9% 18.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 6.8% 10.3% 5.5% 4.2% 1.5% 3.6% 3.8% 10.4% Logistic Regression 7.1% 12.6% 9.3% 11.0% 3.9% 14.8% 8.4% 6.9%
Bayesian 4.1% 2.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
DTOPS 6.0% 12.0% 6.0% 4.0% 1.0% 4.0% 5.0% 11.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Humberto at 09/25/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 153 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.2% 3.4% 3.2% 1.5% 0.5% 3.9% 3.7% 8.4% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 5.8% 3.8% 3.5% 2.2% 5.5% 6.2% 8.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 5.2% 3.6% 3.0% 1.7% 5.0% 5.5% 8.5% SHIPS-RII 2.1% 11.4% 7.9% 6.4% 4.9% 9.7% 10.1% 17.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.6% 4.7% 3.1% 1.2% 0.7% 2.9% 2.8% 18.2% Logistic Regression 2.5% 5.9% 3.4% 4.1% 1.6% 6.6% 8.4% 8.2%
Bayesian 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 28.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Humberto at 09/25/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 151 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.0% 2.9% 2.4% 2.0% 0.6% 5.4% 10.0% 24.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 6.7% 4.4% 3.4% 2.1% 5.6% 5.4% 7.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 5.7% 3.8% 3.0% 1.7% 5.5% 6.5% 11.7% SHIPS-RII 3.8% 13.8% 9.7% 7.5% 5.6% 11.0% 11.3% 18.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.5% 6.4% 3.7% 2.0% 0.8% 3.2% 5.5% 22.5% Logistic Regression 2.1% 6.0% 3.2% 2.7% 0.8% 5.7% 4.6% 4.4%
Bayesian 2.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 10.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 21.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Humberto at 09/25/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 147 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.0% 2.8% 2.1% 1.4% 1.1% 3.7% 4.3% 22.6% SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 7.6% 4.4% 3.3% 2.2% 5.5% 6.4% 9.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 5.5% 3.3% 2.4% 1.6% 4.6% 5.4% 12.4% SHIPS-RII 3.7% 13.9% 9.8% 7.6% 5.7% 10.8% 12.4% 20.2%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.5% 9.9% 5.5% 3.7% 2.0% 3.8% 4.6% 25.3% Logistic Regression 2.4% 7.3% 3.1% 2.1% 0.7% 5.6% 6.8% 8.3%
Bayesian 3.6% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 5.0% 21.0% 13.0% 11.0% 4.0% 6.0% 3.0% 29.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Humberto at 09/24/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 145 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.2% 9.3% 4.9% 1.9% 1.1% 11.3% 19.5% 31.8% SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 9.1% 5.1% 3.7% 2.5% 6.8% 9.6% 14.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 9.1% 5.0% 3.2% 2.1% 7.9% 12.1% 18.7% SHIPS-RII 2.6% 13.8% 9.5% 7.3% 5.7% 11.0% 13.1% 23.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.6% 5.1% 2.9% 0.9% 0.5% 5.6% 9.7% 18.9% Logistic Regression 2.5% 12.7% 5.6% 3.8% 1.7% 9.4% 15.3% 19.7%
Bayesian 2.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------