Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Imelda at 10/02/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 102 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Imelda at 10/02/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 114 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Imelda at 10/02/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 118 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Imelda at 10/01/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 117 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Imelda at 10/01/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 111 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 5.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 8.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Imelda at 10/01/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 118 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 3.4% 2.4% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 2.6% 1.8% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.2% 9.8% 6.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 4.0% 1.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 7.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Imelda at 10/01/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 124 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 4.3% 3.0% 2.4% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 3.4% 2.3% 1.8% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.1% 11.6% 8.3% 6.9% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 6.1% 4.5% 3.7% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.9% 1.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 8.0% 8.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Imelda at 09/30/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 118 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 9.8% 7.0% 5.2% 3.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.5% 5.5% 3.9% 3.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 13.7% 15.2% 11.3% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.0% 2.5% 1.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 8.1% 5.7% 4.1% 2.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 7.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 3.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Imelda at 09/30/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 116 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.6% 1.5% 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.7% 8.7% 5.8% 3.7% 2.5% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.4% 6.8% 4.3% 2.9% 1.9% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.6% 16.8% 12.0% 9.2% 7.2% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 4.3% 3.2% 2.0% 1.4% 0.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Logistic Regression 6.1% 9.1% 5.2% 1.5% 0.5% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian 3.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 4.0% 5.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Imelda at 09/30/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 130 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 5.9% 3.8% 2.8% 2.2% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 4.5% 2.8% 2.0% 1.6% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.3% 15.5% 10.6% 8.1% 6.4% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.5% 2.8% 1.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 1.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.6% 2.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 5.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Imelda at 09/30/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 137 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.4% 2.7% 1.9% 1.1% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.4% 12.2% 7.2% 4.4% 2.8% 5.2% 3.9% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.6% 9.8% 5.8% 3.5% 2.3% 4.0% 2.9% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.2% 22.5% 12.8% 9.6% 7.4% 12.2% 11.3% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.2% 6.3% 3.9% 2.0% 1.5% 2.3% 3.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 7.6% 13.5% 8.4% 3.3% 1.1% 3.2% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian 1.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 4.0% 10.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Imelda at 09/29/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 140 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.7% 3.1% 2.3% 3.5% 1.6% 0.3% 1.3% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 11.6% 18.9% 12.5% 6.5% 3.1% 7.2% 5.3% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.3% 14.9% 9.9% 5.7% 2.6% 5.4% 4.2% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 12.4% 35.5% 23.6% 12.2% 7.8% 14.0% 13.8% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 6.3% 10.5% 6.1% 5.7% 1.8% 1.1% 1.6% 0.5% Logistic Regression 13.3% 18.0% 11.5% 4.7% 1.3% 7.3% 1.9% 0.0% Bayesian 9.1% 3.1% 2.5% 2.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 10.0% 18.0% 10.0% 8.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Imelda at 09/29/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 149 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.6% 5.7% 5.0% 2.1% 0.9% 6.0% 2.3% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 12.4% 21.9% 14.8% 10.4% 3.9% 9.2% 5.8% 4.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.4% 13.8% 9.1% 6.0% 2.8% 7.6% 4.5% 3.2% SHIPS-RII 13.0% 35.5% 24.2% 14.5% 7.9% 13.3% 14.5% 12.5% AI-RI and DTOPS 6.3% 10.8% 6.5% 3.0% 0.9% 4.5% 3.1% 1.2% Logistic Regression 15.0% 23.6% 16.2% 11.2% 3.6% 13.7% 3.0% 0.0% Bayesian 9.3% 6.8% 4.0% 5.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 9.0% 13.0% 6.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 5.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Imelda at 09/29/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 155 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.8% 6.3% 3.7% 2.6% 2.5% 5.7% 2.5% 6.6% SHIPS Consensus 6.2% 11.1% 8.2% 5.3% 2.6% 6.0% 5.7% 5.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.3% 9.8% 7.0% 4.5% 2.5% 5.9% 4.8% 5.7% SHIPS-RII 5.0% 17.1% 11.6% 8.1% 6.0% 11.3% 12.7% 16.1% AI-RI and DTOPS 4.9% 9.6% 4.3% 2.3% 1.7% 3.3% 1.7% 6.8% Logistic Regression 9.6% 15.9% 12.0% 6.9% 1.5% 6.3% 3.9% 0.3% Bayesian 3.9% 0.2% 1.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS 7.0% 13.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 7.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Imelda at 09/29/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 160 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.5% 14.3% 6.6% 6.1% 1.2% 10.7% 11.4% 10.6% SHIPS Consensus 6.8% 10.7% 8.0% 5.1% 2.5% 5.5% 5.6% 6.6% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.6% 11.5% 7.6% 5.3% 2.1% 6.8% 7.1% 7.6% SHIPS-RII 4.5% 17.4% 11.8% 8.2% 6.1% 11.3% 12.7% 19.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.7% 19.6% 7.3% 4.0% 1.6% 6.3% 7.2% 14.8% Logistic Regression 8.7% 13.6% 8.9% 4.6% 0.9% 4.5% 3.9% 0.8% Bayesian 7.1% 1.0% 3.2% 2.5% 0.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% DTOPS 3.0% 25.0% 8.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 19.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Imelda at 09/28/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 158 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.7% 11.0% 11.2% 9.1% 2.2% 23.1% 14.4% 13.2% SHIPS Consensus 4.7% 11.6% 7.9% 5.2% 2.6% 5.9% 5.9% 6.6% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.9% 11.4% 8.7% 6.1% 2.5% 10.2% 8.0% 8.2% SHIPS-RII 4.4% 17.5% 11.8% 8.2% 6.2% 11.1% 12.4% 18.5% AI-RI and DTOPS 4.8% 16.0% 8.6% 5.5% 2.1% 12.5% 8.7% 14.1% Logistic Regression 6.9% 14.6% 9.3% 6.1% 1.3% 5.8% 4.8% 1.3% Bayesian 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% DTOPS 4.0% 21.0% 6.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 15.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nine at 09/28/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 168 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.7% 14.0% 4.3% 4.2% 1.5% 15.9% 17.3% 18.1% SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 9.2% 5.7% 3.7% 2.2% 4.6% 4.9% 7.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 10.3% 5.4% 3.8% 1.9% 7.4% 8.0% 9.7% SHIPS-RII 2.1% 15.7% 10.4% 7.2% 5.6% 10.7% 11.7% 19.2% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.3% 17.5% 6.1% 3.6% 1.2% 9.4% 9.1% 12.0% Logistic Regression 3.6% 11.1% 6.4% 3.7% 0.8% 3.0% 2.9% 1.8% Bayesian 1.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS 3.0% 21.0% 8.0% 3.0% 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 6.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nine at 09/28/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 167 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 10.0% 4.5% 3.1% 0.2% 13.0% 8.1% 15.4% SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 8.6% 5.5% 3.5% 2.3% 4.6% 4.8% 6.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 9.0% 5.2% 3.4% 1.7% 6.7% 5.6% 8.6% SHIPS-RII 3.2% 16.9% 11.2% 8.0% 6.2% 11.4% 12.0% 18.5% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.2% 14.0% 4.2% 2.0% 0.6% 7.5% 5.0% 8.7% Logistic Regression 3.3% 8.7% 4.8% 2.3% 0.5% 2.3% 2.2% 0.7% Bayesian 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 18.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nine at 09/28/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 166 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.0% 22.5% 10.7% 12.4% 2.1% 8.1% 10.0% 17.4% SHIPS Consensus 5.6% 26.2% 16.0% 11.2% 5.7% 10.4% 7.8% 8.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.7% 25.2% 14.6% 11.4% 4.7% 9.8% 8.3% 10.4% SHIPS-RII 5.4% 34.8% 18.6% 9.9% 7.7% 13.0% 14.2% 20.3% AI-RI and DTOPS 4.5% 25.7% 7.8% 6.7% 1.5% 5.5% 6.0% 14.7% Logistic Regression 10.5% 38.4% 26.9% 21.9% 8.8% 17.4% 8.6% 4.0% Bayesian 0.9% 5.4% 2.3% 1.8% 0.5% 0.8% 0.6% 0.0% DTOPS 3.0% 29.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 12.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nine at 09/27/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 162 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.3% 12.3% 7.2% 7.4% 1.5% 8.1% 7.7% 12.9% SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 14.4% 8.7% 7.0% 3.8% 7.9% 8.9% 8.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 13.8% 8.3% 7.1% 3.2% 8.0% 8.5% 9.3% SHIPS-RII 3.2% 16.9% 11.3% 8.3% 6.5% 11.3% 12.8% 19.5% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.6% 15.1% 5.6% 4.2% 1.2% 5.0% 5.8% 9.4% Logistic Regression 7.0% 23.4% 14.1% 12.2% 4.8% 12.1% 12.1% 4.9% Bayesian 1.3% 2.9% 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.5% 1.7% 0.1% DTOPS 2.0% 18.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nine at 09/27/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 159 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.3% 13.6% 7.0% 5.0% 2.7% 18.2% 11.7% 19.8% SHIPS Consensus 4.2% 13.6% 8.6% 8.2% 4.5% 11.0% 9.8% 7.8% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.2% 13.5% 8.2% 7.4% 4.0% 12.8% 10.2% 10.7% SHIPS-RII 3.9% 17.0% 11.6% 8.8% 6.9% 11.6% 12.2% 17.5% AI-RI and DTOPS 4.6% 14.8% 5.5% 3.0% 1.3% 10.1% 6.8% 14.4% Logistic Regression 7.4% 21.5% 13.6% 15.4% 6.5% 20.9% 16.2% 5.8% Bayesian 1.4% 2.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.6% 1.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 16.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 9.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nine at 09/27/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 156 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.1% 8.6% 3.0% 6.0% 1.0% 7.5% 10.1% 19.1% SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 8.4% 4.9% 3.4% 2.2% 5.6% 7.9% 8.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 8.4% 4.4% 4.0% 1.9% 6.0% 8.4% 10.7% SHIPS-RII 2.0% 14.8% 9.9% 7.3% 5.8% 10.7% 12.3% 18.8% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.5% 11.8% 4.0% 3.5% 1.0% 4.7% 6.5% 11.0% Logistic Regression 3.5% 8.7% 4.3% 2.7% 0.8% 5.5% 10.8% 5.1% Bayesian 1.1% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% DTOPS 2.0% 15.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nine at 09/27/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 158 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.9% 11.7% 7.4% 6.7% 1.8% 5.5% 6.2% 16.3% SHIPS Consensus 5.5% 18.2% 10.8% 9.9% 4.5% 12.0% 13.6% 10.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.6% 16.6% 9.9% 9.1% 3.8% 10.4% 11.7% 11.6% SHIPS-RII 5.1% 21.6% 12.7% 9.6% 7.4% 12.3% 13.5% 18.7% AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 9.6% 23.5% 16.3% 15.9% 5.5% 21.3% 22.5% 11.3% Bayesian 1.8% 9.6% 3.5% 4.2% 0.8% 2.5% 4.6% 0.2% DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nine at 09/26/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 156 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.3% 14.8% 7.0% 5.8% 1.1% 13.7% 11.4% 19.2% SHIPS Consensus 4.5% 13.7% 8.6% 7.8% 3.9% 9.3% 11.6% 9.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus SHIPS-RII 4.5% 17.1% 11.8% 8.9% 6.8% 11.6% 12.9% 18.3% AI-RI and DTOPS Logistic Regression 7.4% 19.4% 12.7% 13.6% 4.7% 15.3% 18.9% 9.9% Bayesian 1.7% 4.6% 1.2% 0.9% 0.2% 1.0% 3.1% 0.4% DTOPS 2.0% 20.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------