Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Jerry at 10/11/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 135 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 1.4% 0.7% 1.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 4.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.7% 1.8% 1.5% 1.2% 2.3% 1.9% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.3% 1.5% 1.3% 0.9% 1.7% 1.5% 1.1% SHIPS-RII 1.3% 7.5% 5.1% 4.4% 3.6% 6.7% 5.6% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.9% 1.2% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 2.3% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Jerry at 10/11/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 128 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 3.1% 0.7% 4.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 4.8% 3.2% 2.5% 1.9% 3.2% 2.4% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 4.3% 2.5% 2.8% 1.4% 2.4% 1.8% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.5% 11.7% 8.0% 6.6% 5.4% 8.9% 6.9% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.2% 3.0% 1.3% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.4% 2.7% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Jerry at 10/11/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 143 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.9% 6.3% 2.5% 5.5% 0.2% 1.8% 3.5% 4.2% SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 4.8% 3.1% 2.4% 1.8% 3.3% 3.4% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 5.1% 2.9% 3.1% 1.3% 2.9% 3.4% 1.1% SHIPS-RII 3.4% 12.7% 8.7% 6.8% 5.3% 9.4% 9.6% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.9% 4.1% 1.7% 3.2% 0.1% 0.9% 1.7% 2.1% Logistic Regression 1.3% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% Bayesian 2.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Jerry at 10/11/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 149 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 4.5% 1.3% 2.7% 0.1% 0.6% 2.8% 8.8% SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 4.0% 2.6% 2.0% 1.6% 3.1% 3.2% 5.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 4.1% 2.2% 2.2% 1.2% 2.4% 3.1% 6.3% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 11.0% 7.4% 6.0% 4.8% 9.0% 9.1% 16.1% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 3.2% 1.1% 1.3% 0.0% 0.3% 1.4% 4.9% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0.4% Bayesian 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Jerry at 10/10/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 153 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 4.6% 1.6% 3.6% 0.1% 1.6% 3.1% 6.4% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 4.4% 2.9% 2.2% 1.7% 3.2% 3.2% 5.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 4.4% 2.5% 2.5% 1.2% 2.8% 3.1% 5.3% SHIPS-RII 2.0% 11.9% 8.0% 6.3% 5.0% 9.1% 9.0% 14.6% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 4.3% 1.8% 2.3% 0.5% 1.3% 1.5% 4.7% Logistic Regression 0.6% 1.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% Bayesian 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Jerry at 10/10/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 156 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.9% 0.5% 4.9% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 4.8% 3.1% 2.4% 1.9% 3.5% 3.3% 4.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 3.8% 2.3% 1.9% 1.4% 2.8% 2.5% 4.7% SHIPS-RII 2.4% 13.3% 8.8% 7.0% 5.6% 9.9% 9.4% 13.8% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 4.4% Logistic Regression 0.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Jerry at 10/10/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 157 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.2% 3.9% 2.3% 2.7% 0.4% 4.2% 3.5% 2.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 4.8% 2.8% 2.2% 1.8% 3.7% 3.4% 4.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 4.5% 2.6% 2.3% 1.4% 3.8% 3.4% 3.7% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 11.6% 7.4% 5.7% 4.8% 9.2% 8.8% 11.8% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 2.4% 1.6% 1.3% 0.2% 2.6% 1.7% 2.2% Logistic Regression 0.8% 2.8% 1.0% 0.9% 0.5% 1.8% 1.5% 0.8% Bayesian 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Jerry at 10/10/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 157 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.7% 2.9% 2.6% 1.5% 1.1% 8.5% 5.4% 7.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 4.4% 2.6% 2.0% 1.6% 3.6% 3.6% 4.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 4.0% 2.6% 1.9% 1.5% 4.8% 4.0% 4.9% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 11.6% 7.3% 5.6% 4.6% 9.2% 9.5% 11.7% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.3% 1.9% 1.8% 0.7% 0.5% 4.7% 2.7% 5.2% Logistic Regression 0.7% 1.7% 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 1.5% 1.3% 0.5% Bayesian 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Jerry at 10/09/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 159 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 1.9% 1.1% 6.2% SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 5.4% 3.4% 2.5% 2.0% 3.8% 4.0% 4.6% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 4.3% 2.6% 1.9% 1.4% 3.3% 3.2% 4.9% SHIPS-RII 3.0% 15.0% 9.7% 7.2% 5.8% 10.8% 11.0% 13.2% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.5% 1.2% 0.7% 0.0% 1.9% 1.0% 4.6% Logistic Regression 0.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 0.9% 0.5% Bayesian 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Jerry at 10/09/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 162 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.2% 3.2% 2.1% 2.0% 0.8% 20.6% 5.6% 15.9% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 6.2% 3.5% 2.6% 2.1% 4.3% 4.6% 5.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 5.4% 3.1% 2.4% 1.7% 8.3% 4.8% 7.8% SHIPS-RII 2.1% 14.6% 9.3% 6.7% 5.5% 10.6% 11.2% 14.2% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.6% 2.6% 1.5% 1.5% 0.4% 11.3% 3.3% 9.9% Logistic Regression 1.3% 3.7% 1.1% 1.0% 0.7% 2.3% 2.4% 1.3% Bayesian 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 4.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Jerry at 10/09/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 162 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 2.6% 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% 9.9% 3.8% 15.1% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 6.5% 3.7% 0.1% 0.1% 4.2% 4.9% 5.9% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 5.5% 3.0% 0.2% 0.2% 5.6% 4.6% 8.2% SHIPS-RII 2.8% 15.6% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 12.3% 16.4% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.8% 5.3% 3.5% 2.8% 1.8% 6.9% 2.9% 8.5% Logistic Regression 0.8% 3.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 1.3% 2.2% 1.4% Bayesian 1.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS 5.0% 8.0% 6.0% 5.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Jerry at 10/09/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 158 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.5% 3.6% 1.3% 1.1% 0.7% 5.2% 6.8% 15.2% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 7.3% 4.1% 3.1% 2.4% 5.3% 5.9% 7.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 5.8% 3.1% 0.5% 0.3% 4.7% 5.6% 9.4% SHIPS-RII 3.2% 15.2% 10.0% 7.5% 5.9% 11.5% 12.8% 18.7% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.2% 2.8% 1.1% 0.5% 0.3% 3.1% 3.4% 9.1% Logistic Regression 1.7% 5.9% 2.2% 1.9% 1.3% 3.8% 3.8% 4.2% Bayesian 1.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 0.1% DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Jerry at 10/08/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 153 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 3.1% 3.7% 1.4% 0.9% 5.3% 4.3% 13.3% SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 6.0% 3.7% 2.7% 2.1% 4.1% 4.5% 6.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 5.2% 3.7% 2.4% 1.8% 4.4% 4.4% 7.8% SHIPS-RII 4.5% 16.0% 10.6% 8.0% 6.2% 11.3% 12.3% 16.9% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.8% 4.5% 3.8% 1.7% 1.4% 3.6% 2.6% 7.6% Logistic Regression 0.6% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.9% 1.2% Bayesian 0.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS 3.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Jerry at 10/08/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 150 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 1.5% 0.8% 1.8% 0.6% 3.1% 3.6% 16.9% SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 5.3% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 3.5% 4.6% 7.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 4.3% 2.5% 0.4% 0.1% 3.4% 4.3% 9.5% SHIPS-RII 2.5% 13.3% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 12.2% 19.1% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 2.2% 1.4% 1.4% 0.8% 2.0% 2.3% 9.9% Logistic Regression 0.7% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 1.3% 2.0% Bayesian 0.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Jerry at 10/08/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 151 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 2.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 2.9% 2.8% 16.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 5.0% 3.0% 2.2% 1.7% 3.4% 4.0% 7.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 4.4% 2.4% 1.7% 1.3% 3.2% 3.7% 9.7% SHIPS-RII 1.8% 12.6% 8.1% 6.1% 4.9% 9.3% 10.5% 19.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.3% 9.2% 4.3% 2.7% 2.6% 4.4% 1.9% 11.1% Logistic Regression 0.8% 2.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.7% 1.4% 3.2% Bayesian 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% DTOPS 4.0% 16.0% 8.0% 5.0% 5.0% 6.0% 1.0% 6.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Jerry at 10/08/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 147 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.9% 9.4% 4.6% 2.6% 0.7% 5.3% 6.8% 24.2% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 6.4% 3.7% 2.5% 1.8% 3.9% 5.1% 8.6% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 7.1% 3.9% 2.5% 1.5% 4.2% 5.5% 12.5% SHIPS-RII 2.5% 13.2% 8.6% 6.3% 4.9% 9.7% 11.0% 19.3% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.9% 9.2% 4.8% 2.3% 1.3% 3.6% 3.9% 13.6% Logistic Regression 2.0% 4.7% 2.0% 1.2% 0.5% 1.6% 2.5% 5.8% Bayesian 0.9% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 1.8% 0.7% DTOPS 5.0% 9.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Jerry at 10/07/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 143 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 24.0% 31.4% 25.6% 8.0% 2.9% 25.4% 13.1% 38.6% SHIPS Consensus 13.3% 40.9% 23.5% 12.2% 7.0% 9.8% 7.0% 10.8% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 15.9% 38.5% 24.0% 11.1% 6.0% 13.7% 8.5% 17.7% SHIPS-RII 8.1% 35.7% 21.7% 11.6% 7.8% 12.9% 13.8% 20.6% AI-RI and DTOPS 17.5% 34.7% 20.3% 7.5% 4.4% 21.2% 8.0% 20.8% Logistic Regression 21.8% 33.2% 23.7% 18.2% 9.0% 9.3% 6.1% 10.8% Bayesian 10.0% 53.9% 25.3% 6.7% 4.4% 7.2% 1.1% 1.1% DTOPS 11.0% 38.0% 15.0% 7.0% 6.0% 17.0% 3.0% 3.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Jerry at 10/07/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 149 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 23.3% 53.6% 29.9% 23.9% 2.6% 39.4% 33.6% 42.8% SHIPS Consensus 15.0% 34.7% 25.0% 11.9% 6.7% 10.6% 8.9% 11.6% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 17.0% 39.4% 26.2% 14.9% 5.6% 17.7% 15.0% 19.3% SHIPS-RII 7.3% 36.7% 21.8% 10.3% 7.7% 13.1% 13.9% 21.6% AI-RI and DTOPS 14.6% 43.3% 19.9% 13.9% 2.8% 22.2% 19.3% 23.9% Logistic Regression 27.0% 36.4% 28.2% 20.0% 9.2% 10.1% 7.4% 8.7% Bayesian 10.8% 30.9% 25.1% 5.4% 3.2% 8.5% 5.3% 4.4% DTOPS 6.0% 33.0% 10.0% 4.0% 3.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------