Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Karen intensity image current Karen RI diff image

 


Karen at 10/10/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 4 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 3.3% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Logistic Regression 1.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% N/A
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Karen at 10/10/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 18 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 2.9% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Logistic Regression 1.9% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 1.1% 0.2% N/A
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Karen at 10/10/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 40 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 2.3% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 1.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Karen at 10/10/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 39 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.7% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------