Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current invest intensity image current invest RI diff image

 


Lorenzo at 10/15/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 139 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 8.8% 6.5% 4.2% 0.5% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 6.6% 5.0% 3.3% 0.4% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 1.8% 13.1% 8.9% 6.3% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% Logistic Regression 3.4% 13.1% 10.6% 6.5% 1.6% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Lorenzo at 10/15/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 143 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 1.5% SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 8.8% 6.8% 4.8% 2.4% 6.2% 5.4% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 6.8% 5.3% 3.8% 1.8% 4.8% 4.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 3.4% 14.3% 9.8% 7.4% 5.7% 11.2% 11.8% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% Logistic Regression 3.7% 11.8% 10.5% 6.9% 1.5% 7.5% 4.2% N/A
Bayesian 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Lorenzo at 10/15/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 144 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.4% 2.4% 2.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.4% 1.1% 2.8% SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 8.8% 6.5% 4.8% 2.7% 8.2% 7.1% 10.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 7.1% 5.4% 3.8% 2.0% 6.2% 5.6% 8.8% SHIPS-RII 3.5% 14.4% 10.0% 7.9% 6.2% 11.5% 12.4% 20.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.2% 1.7% 1.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 1.4% Logistic Regression 4.2% 11.5% 9.1% 6.3% 1.8% 13.1% 9.0% 12.0%
Bayesian 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Lorenzo at 10/15/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 1.2% 0.2% 1.0% 0.0% 0.4% 1.3% 1.4% SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 8.0% 5.9% 4.8% 2.9% 6.6% 5.3% 11.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 6.3% 4.4% 3.8% 2.1% 5.0% 4.3% 8.7% SHIPS-RII 2.1% 12.9% 8.8% 7.2% 5.9% 10.6% 11.8% 20.2%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.7% Logistic Regression 2.8% 11.1% 8.7% 7.2% 2.7% 9.2% 4.1% 13.5%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Lorenzo at 10/14/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 143 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.6% 0.8% 1.9% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 4.4% 2.8% 2.3% 1.9% 3.9% 0.7% 8.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 3.4% 2.1% 1.8% 1.4% 3.0% 0.7% 6.6% SHIPS-RII 1.3% 10.0% 6.5% 5.6% 5.1% 9.3% 0.0% 17.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 1.4% Logistic Regression 0.8% 3.1% 2.0% 1.3% 0.5% 2.3% 2.1% 7.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
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Lorenzo at 10/14/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 1.2% 0.9% 5.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 6.1% 4.1% 3.3% 2.4% 4.9% 4.9% 9.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 4.7% 3.1% 2.5% 1.7% 3.9% 3.9% 8.1% SHIPS-RII 3.3% 12.7% 8.8% 7.2% 5.8% 10.9% 12.3% 18.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.4% 3.0% Logistic Regression 1.5% 5.4% 3.3% 2.6% 1.3% 3.6% 2.5% 9.5%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
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Lorenzo at 10/14/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 143 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 1.9% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% 1.8% 5.2% SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 5.8% 3.9% 2.9% 2.1% 4.3% 4.7% 7.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 4.8% 3.2% 2.3% 1.5% 3.3% 3.9% 6.6% SHIPS-RII 4.0% 14.3% 10.0% 7.9% 5.9% 11.5% 12.6% 18.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 1.4% 1.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.9% 2.6% Logistic Regression 1.1% 2.8% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 1.3% 1.3% 2.6%
Bayesian 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Lorenzo at 10/14/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 143 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.6% 0.5% 2.3% 3.0% 10.6% SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 7.5% 4.8% 3.6% 2.5% 5.8% 5.9% 9.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 6.6% 4.5% 3.3% 2.0% 4.9% 5.1% 9.3% SHIPS-RII 4.2% 15.7% 11.0% 8.7% 6.7% 12.4% 13.9% 21.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.0% 2.5% 2.5% 1.3% 0.2% 1.1% 1.5% 5.8% Logistic Regression 1.3% 6.0% 3.0% 1.9% 0.8% 4.7% 2.9% 5.5%
Bayesian 1.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.8% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
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Lorenzo at 10/13/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 144 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.6% 6.6% 4.9% 3.9% 0.3% 4.3% 7.5% 10.4% SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 6.5% 3.9% 2.8% 2.0% 4.8% 6.2% 8.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 6.5% 4.1% 3.0% 1.5% 4.7% 6.5% 9.0% SHIPS-RII 2.5% 14.5% 10.0% 7.6% 5.8% 11.6% 13.4% 22.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.3% 3.8% 2.9% 2.4% 0.1% 2.1% 3.7% 5.7% Logistic Regression 1.3% 3.6% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 2.4% 4.6% 3.6%
Bayesian 2.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.7% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
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Lorenzo at 10/13/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 144 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.7% 3.2% 2.0% 0.9% 0.2% 1.2% 2.7% 6.2% SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 6.2% 3.8% 2.9% 2.0% 5.1% 6.5% 8.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 4.7% 2.9% 2.0% 1.3% 3.6% 4.7% 7.3% SHIPS-RII 2.1% 13.4% 9.2% 7.1% 5.4% 11.0% 12.9% 21.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 2.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 1.3% 4.1% Logistic Regression 1.5% 4.5% 1.9% 1.5% 0.6% 3.9% 4.0% 2.4%
Bayesian 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 2.8% 0.1%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0%
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Lorenzo at 10/13/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 148 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 6.8% 1.1% 1.5% 0.2% 0.2% 3.1% 7.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 4.6% 2.7% 0.3% 0.1% 3.7% 5.8% 7.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 5.1% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 2.8% 5.1% 7.1% SHIPS-RII 1.3% 10.0% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 10.6% 17.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 4.4% 1.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 1.5% 3.5% Logistic Regression 1.4% 3.2% 1.3% 1.0% 0.4% 2.0% 5.2% 3.9%
Bayesian 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.7% 0.1%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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