Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Melissa at 10/31/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 44 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Melissa at 10/31/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 55 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Melissa at 10/31/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 68 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Melissa at 10/30/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 97 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Melissa at 10/30/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 115 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.8% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Melissa at 10/30/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 136 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 15.1% 0.5% 0.5% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.7% 4.7% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.0% 3.6% 2.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.7% 12.1% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 11.0% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 6.7% 2.1% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 7.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Melissa at 10/30/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 140 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 4.4% 2.8% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 3.4% 2.2% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.5% 11.3% 7.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.6% 2.3% 1.7% 0.9% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 3.3% 2.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Melissa at 10/29/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 142 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 4.8% 3.1% 2.1% 1.6% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 3.6% 2.3% 1.5% 1.2% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.7% 11.8% 8.1% 6.0% 4.8% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.0% 2.6% 1.5% 0.5% 0.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 2.0% 2.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 4.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Melissa at 10/29/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 151 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 3.4% 2.1% 1.7% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 3.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.2% 9.1% 5.9% 4.7% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.6% 4.8% 2.2% 1.2% 0.6% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 5.0% 11.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Melissa at 10/29/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 162 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 1.2% 0.2% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.7% 5.2% 3.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 4.2% 2.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.4% 12.8% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.5% 2.8% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Melissa at 10/29/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 163 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.8% 7.2% 4.8% 3.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.0% 5.5% 3.6% 2.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.8% 14.6% 10.5% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 7.5% 6.7% 3.7% 1.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian 2.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Melissa at 10/28/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 145 kts, MPI = 163 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Melissa at 10/28/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 155 kts, MPI = 165 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Melissa at 10/28/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 150 kts, MPI = 163 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.8% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Melissa at 10/28/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 150 kts, MPI = 162 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.3% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 1.6% 1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.4% 1.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 6.6% 4.3% 2.9% 2.3% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Melissa at 10/27/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 150 kts, MPI = 164 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 3.7% 1.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian 2.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Melissa at 10/27/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 140 kts, MPI = 166 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.5% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian 3.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 6.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Melissa at 10/27/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 135 kts, MPI = 167 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.3% 0.7% 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 6.6% 3.3% 2.5% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.3% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian 3.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 12.0% 6.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Melissa at 10/27/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 165 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.2% 1.8% 2.2% 3.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 4.0% 6.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 5.2% 0.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.7% 15.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 2.2% 1.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian 2.0% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Melissa at 10/26/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 164 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 12.5% 3.2% 6.6% 4.2% 0.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 7.8% 7.0% 5.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.9% 6.0% 5.3% 1.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 11.5% 16.6% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 15.2% 8.1% 8.3% 2.6% 0.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% Logistic Regression 3.8% 2.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.8% 0.1% Bayesian 8.0% 2.4% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 18.0% 13.0% 10.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Melissa at 10/26/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 165 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 21.2% 9.9% 8.6% 5.4% 0.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 18.5% 14.7% 12.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 19.2% 13.5% 11.7% 2.1% 0.2% 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 28.4% 35.5% 32.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 18.6% 8.4% 7.3% 3.2% 0.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% Logistic Regression 11.5% 6.8% 4.0% 1.5% 0.4% 1.4% 2.2% 0.3% Bayesian 15.8% 1.9% 1.8% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 16.0% 7.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Melissa at 10/26/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 160 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 41.2% 11.5% 20.7% 19.5% 4.3% 3.9% 0.8% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 33.0% 31.4% 27.6% 21.0% 8.3% 3.0% 1.4% 0.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 35.0% 26.4% 25.9% 20.5% 7.2% 3.2% 1.2% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 43.1% 55.4% 50.1% 41.9% 18.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 53.1% 36.7% 30.8% 19.7% 6.6% 5.4% 0.9% 0.2% Logistic Regression 38.7% 38.0% 30.8% 18.9% 6.1% 9.1% 4.3% 0.7% Bayesian 17.2% 0.8% 2.0% 2.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 65.0% 62.0% 41.0% 20.0% 9.0% 7.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Melissa at 10/26/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 159 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 55.3% 27.7% 47.3% 22.1% 13.8% 10.2% 5.1% 2.0% SHIPS Consensus 35.2% 37.4% 32.3% 30.3% 14.3% 13.6% 8.9% 1.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 40.2% 35.0% 36.0% 28.2% 14.1% 12.7% 7.9% 1.2% SHIPS-RII 37.2% 55.5% 48.0% 40.3% 20.2% 22.5% 17.7% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 66.1% 56.3% 61.1% 42.0% 31.4% 30.6% 7.0% 1.5% Logistic Regression 34.1% 43.5% 33.6% 28.4% 12.0% 17.5% 8.9% 3.0% Bayesian 34.4% 13.3% 15.3% 22.1% 10.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 77.0% 85.0% 75.0% 62.0% 49.0% 51.0% 9.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Melissa at 10/25/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 162 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 39.6% 31.4% 39.7% 27.1% 11.2% 22.3% 13.5% 6.9% SHIPS Consensus 26.3% 37.1% 30.2% 28.9% 17.5% 15.0% 8.4% 8.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 29.1% 36.2% 31.0% 26.5% 14.5% 16.9% 9.9% 7.8% SHIPS-RII 27.8% 54.1% 43.1% 35.7% 24.4% 28.8% 17.2% 21.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 51.3% 64.2% 65.8% 49.0% 33.1% 58.6% 47.2% 6.4% Logistic Regression 27.9% 36.8% 27.4% 22.8% 10.5% 11.3% 6.8% 3.0% Bayesian 23.2% 20.4% 20.0% 28.1% 17.7% 4.9% 1.2% 0.1% DTOPS 62.0% 96.0% 91.0% 71.0% 57.0% 95.0% 81.0% 4.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Melissa at 10/25/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 166 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 17.8% 27.0% 20.3% 7.9% 8.1% 22.9% 16.9% 11.9% SHIPS Consensus 6.3% 20.9% 13.2% 9.9% 7.0% 10.5% 8.2% 8.6% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.1% 22.4% 15.0% 9.3% 7.2% 13.6% 10.4% 9.4% SHIPS-RII 8.0% 44.8% 30.9% 22.9% 18.0% 21.8% 15.3% 20.7% AI-RI and DTOPS 18.4% 59.5% 44.6% 21.4% 14.0% 51.9% 48.4% 9.4% Logistic Regression 6.2% 15.2% 7.8% 6.0% 2.7% 8.4% 7.5% 4.6% Bayesian 4.7% 2.8% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 1.4% 2.0% 0.5% DTOPS 19.0% 92.0% 69.0% 35.0% 20.0% 81.0% 80.0% 7.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Melissa at 10/25/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 165 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 21.4% 20.5% 24.3% 13.0% 6.1% 25.1% 22.0% 10.6% SHIPS Consensus 6.8% 23.6% 14.9% 10.0% 6.8% 12.5% 10.3% 10.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 10.4% 22.8% 17.2% 10.7% 6.6% 15.6% 13.1% 10.5% SHIPS-RII 8.3% 47.1% 33.2% 23.1% 17.6% 26.4% 20.6% 23.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 30.2% 56.7% 54.1% 34.0% 28.5% 60.5% 55.5% 16.8% Logistic Regression 6.1% 19.8% 10.0% 6.1% 2.7% 9.0% 7.4% 7.1% Bayesian 6.1% 4.0% 1.6% 0.8% 0.2% 2.0% 2.7% 1.4% DTOPS 39.0% 93.0% 84.0% 55.0% 51.0% 96.0% 89.0% 23.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Melissa at 10/25/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 164 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.4% 33.2% 30.6% 12.8% 2.2% 20.3% 26.9% 17.7% SHIPS Consensus 16.8% 40.5% 25.9% 18.5% 10.4% 21.7% 17.3% 13.6% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 14.9% 38.6% 27.0% 17.0% 8.3% 21.3% 19.6% 14.6% SHIPS-RII 17.1% 58.1% 43.3% 30.7% 20.8% 43.4% 31.2% 26.4% AI-RI and DTOPS 16.2% 60.6% 49.3% 27.9% 10.1% 56.6% 57.9% 29.8% Logistic Regression 16.6% 38.4% 23.7% 17.1% 7.4% 16.4% 14.1% 13.4% Bayesian 16.6% 24.9% 10.7% 7.6% 3.0% 5.3% 6.4% 1.0% DTOPS 23.0% 88.0% 68.0% 43.0% 18.0% 93.0% 89.0% 42.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Melissa at 10/24/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 162 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 24.0% 36.6% 31.8% 15.4% 9.1% 36.0% 28.8% 26.8% SHIPS Consensus 16.7% 47.3% 28.8% 20.9% 14.6% 24.2% 20.4% 24.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 18.5% 44.6% 29.5% 19.5% 13.2% 27.1% 22.5% 24.9% SHIPS-RII 14.1% 61.6% 45.3% 30.8% 21.4% 44.5% 40.7% 38.6% AI-RI and DTOPS 31.0% 66.8% 58.4% 27.7% 13.5% 66.5% 55.4% 37.4% Logistic Regression 23.3% 50.7% 29.3% 20.4% 12.4% 22.5% 18.6% 27.0% Bayesian 12.7% 29.6% 11.8% 11.4% 10.0% 5.5% 1.9% 7.3% DTOPS 38.0% 97.0% 85.0% 40.0% 18.0% 97.0% 82.0% 48.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Melissa at 10/24/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 168 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.6% 19.2% 11.2% 5.1% 1.5% 21.8% 16.2% 16.5% SHIPS Consensus 6.1% 25.8% 13.3% 5.0% 3.4% 7.4% 11.8% 17.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.1% 24.3% 13.0% 5.1% 3.0% 10.8% 11.6% 17.1% SHIPS-RII 5.2% 40.4% 22.0% 9.8% 7.7% 13.6% 21.2% 32.4% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.8% 22.1% 7.6% 3.5% 1.2% 11.9% 11.1% 24.2% Logistic Regression 11.6% 32.7% 16.6% 4.6% 2.4% 7.9% 10.1% 14.0% Bayesian 1.4% 4.2% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.7% 4.1% 5.1% DTOPS 3.0% 23.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 5.0% 32.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Melissa at 10/24/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 169 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.8% 13.4% 10.0% 3.4% 0.8% 17.6% 12.6% 10.3% SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 8.5% 4.9% 3.4% 2.4% 5.1% 5.8% 10.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 9.7% 6.1% 3.4% 1.9% 8.2% 7.5% 10.2% SHIPS-RII 3.5% 17.0% 11.3% 8.3% 6.4% 11.6% 13.4% 22.9% AI-RI and DTOPS 6.9% 16.7% 9.0% 3.2% 0.9% 19.8% 31.3% 10.6% Logistic Regression 2.5% 6.9% 2.8% 1.7% 0.7% 3.4% 3.6% 7.0% Bayesian 0.9% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.7% DTOPS 5.0% 20.0% 8.0% 3.0% 1.0% 22.0% 50.0% 11.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Melissa at 10/24/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 168 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.1% 6.6% 3.4% 1.2% 0.3% 8.6% 5.2% 9.3% SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 6.8% 4.0% 2.8% 2.0% 4.5% 5.6% 9.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 6.7% 3.8% 2.4% 1.6% 5.5% 5.4% 9.6% SHIPS-RII 1.8% 14.4% 9.5% 6.9% 5.4% 10.8% 12.9% 22.8% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.5% 10.8% 5.2% 1.6% 1.1% 6.8% 9.1% 21.1% Logistic Regression 1.6% 5.6% 2.2% 1.6% 0.7% 2.8% 3.1% 5.8% Bayesian 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 0.6% DTOPS 4.0% 15.0% 7.0% 2.0% 2.0% 5.0% 13.0% 33.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Melissa at 10/23/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 166 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.8% 5.7% 2.6% 2.2% 0.3% 2.6% 5.4% 10.3% SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 7.3% 4.2% 3.1% 2.2% 5.3% 6.4% 10.9% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 6.8% 3.7% 2.8% 1.7% 4.6% 6.1% 10.7% SHIPS-RII 2.7% 15.3% 10.1% 7.4% 5.8% 11.3% 13.2% 22.5% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.4% 8.3% 2.8% 1.6% 0.6% 4.8% 10.7% 7.6% Logistic Regression 2.2% 5.9% 2.2% 1.8% 0.8% 4.4% 5.3% 9.6% Bayesian 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.8% 0.6% DTOPS 2.0% 11.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 7.0% 16.0% 5.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Melissa at 10/23/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 169 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.6% 20.2% 9.4% 4.5% 0.7% 6.0% 11.9% 13.4% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 7.5% 4.3% 3.0% 2.3% 4.7% 7.7% 12.8% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 10.7% 5.6% 3.3% 1.9% 5.0% 8.7% 12.9% SHIPS-RII 3.0% 17.5% 11.6% 8.4% 6.6% 12.3% 15.2% 25.8% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.8% 14.6% 6.7% 3.7% 0.8% 6.5% 11.4% 8.7% Logistic Regression 0.9% 4.6% 1.3% 0.6% 0.3% 1.8% 5.6% 11.0% Bayesian 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 2.2% 1.6% DTOPS 2.0% 9.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 7.0% 11.0% 4.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Melissa at 10/23/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 165 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.7% 11.5% 6.6% 1.3% 0.2% 13.2% 12.9% 14.8% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 6.9% 3.9% 2.8% 2.1% 5.0% 8.2% 14.8% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 8.0% 4.5% 2.3% 1.6% 7.0% 9.3% 14.7% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 16.1% 10.6% 7.6% 5.9% 12.1% 14.7% 25.5% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.8% 7.7% 4.3% 1.1% 0.6% 7.6% 6.9% 8.9% Logistic Regression 0.9% 3.5% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 2.5% 8.4% 14.5% Bayesian 0.6% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 1.5% 4.3% DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Melissa at 10/22/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 163 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.5% 8.0% 4.5% 0.8% 0.3% 9.4% 4.9% 10.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 7.0% 3.8% 2.9% 2.2% 5.3% 8.0% 13.9% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 7.3% 3.9% 2.3% 1.7% 6.3% 7.2% 13.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 15.5% 10.2% 7.4% 5.7% 11.4% 13.5% 24.9% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.7% 7.0% 3.7% 0.9% 0.6% 5.7% 3.4% 6.2% Logistic Regression 1.5% 4.8% 1.2% 1.3% 0.9% 4.5% 9.7% 13.8% Bayesian 1.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.8% 3.1% DTOPS 2.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Melissa at 10/22/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 170 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.7% 11.0% 6.7% 3.2% 1.4% 21.0% 13.1% 13.9% SHIPS Consensus 4.4% 16.6% 7.1% 5.4% 4.2% 8.7% 8.9% 14.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.7% 15.1% 6.9% 4.8% 3.5% 11.7% 9.9% 14.2% SHIPS-RII 5.2% 31.1% 15.4% 9.8% 7.6% 12.9% 14.3% 26.2% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.3% 9.0% 4.3% 2.1% 1.2% 13.0% 8.0% 10.4% Logistic Regression 5.9% 15.2% 5.1% 6.0% 4.9% 12.7% 12.3% 15.7% Bayesian 2.0% 3.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 1.0% DTOPS 1.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 5.0% 3.0% 7.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Melissa at 10/22/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 170 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.1% 6.9% 2.0% 0.8% 0.2% 13.5% 8.8% 13.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 7.8% 4.1% 3.0% 2.3% 6.1% 8.4% 17.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 7.5% 3.5% 2.4% 1.8% 7.9% 8.4% 16.3% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 16.0% 10.5% 7.7% 6.0% 11.4% 13.8% 24.5% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.5% 6.9% 2.5% 0.9% 0.6% 8.7% 5.9% 8.3% Logistic Regression 1.4% 6.5% 1.7% 1.3% 1.0% 6.6% 11.2% 24.4% Bayesian 1.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 2.9% DTOPS 3.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Melissa at 10/22/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 167 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 1.0% 1.8% 7.6% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 7.5% 4.2% 2.9% 2.2% 4.3% 5.1% 9.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 5.9% 3.2% 2.3% 1.7% 3.4% 4.2% 9.2% SHIPS-RII 3.5% 19.7% 11.9% 8.5% 6.7% 12.1% 14.0% 24.4% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 3.2% 1.1% 0.8% 0.5% 1.0% 1.4% 4.3% Logistic Regression 0.6% 2.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 1.3% 4.7% Bayesian 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Melissa at 10/21/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 163 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 3.3% 2.1% 0.3% 0.1% 3.6% 5.4% 14.8% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 8.6% 4.4% 3.0% 2.3% 4.6% 5.4% 10.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 7.2% 3.8% 2.3% 1.6% 4.3% 5.4% 11.5% SHIPS-RII 4.0% 21.9% 12.2% 8.7% 6.6% 12.5% 14.5% 24.8% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.2% 9.1% 5.0% 2.1% 1.5% 3.3% 3.7% 7.9% Logistic Regression 0.7% 3.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 1.1% 1.7% 6.3% Bayesian 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% DTOPS 6.0% 15.0% 8.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Melissa at 10/21/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 173 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.1% 7.9% 3.1% 1.3% 0.6% 14.7% 23.2% 13.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 8.0% 4.2% 0.3% 0.2% 4.8% 6.3% 11.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 7.9% 3.9% 0.5% 0.2% 7.2% 10.5% 11.8% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 16.3% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 11.7% 14.0% 25.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 4.0% 5.9% 2.5% 1.6% 0.8% 7.8% 12.1% 7.5% Logistic Regression 1.3% 6.4% 1.8% 0.9% 0.4% 2.5% 4.1% 7.9% Bayesian 2.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.8% 1.4% DTOPS 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------