Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Iona at 08/02/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 139 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 1.2% 0.5% 7.3% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 3.8% 3.2% 2.5% 0.0% 4.7% 4.6% 4.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 3.0% 2.5% 1.9% 0.0% 3.8% 3.6% 5.2% SHIPS-RII 4.4% 11.1% 9.6% 7.4% 0.0% 14.0% 13.6% 12.5% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 1.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.7% 3.6% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.8% Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Iona at 08/01/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 135 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.3% 1.0% 2.6% 4.7% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 4.0% 3.5% 2.8% 2.1% 5.0% 5.1% 4.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 3.1% 2.8% 2.1% 1.6% 4.0% 4.5% 4.7% SHIPS-RII 5.8% 11.5% 10.4% 8.3% 6.4% 14.9% 15.1% 13.2% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.3% 1.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 1.0% 2.3% 2.3% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.7% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% DTOPS 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Iona at 08/01/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 133 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.6% 0.9% 1.6% 3.3% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 4.2% 3.2% 2.4% 1.8% 4.1% 4.3% 4.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 3.3% 2.5% 1.8% 1.5% 3.2% 3.5% 3.8% SHIPS-RII 5.1% 11.7% 9.4% 7.2% 5.4% 12.1% 12.6% 11.4% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 1.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.9% 1.3% 1.6% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Iona at 08/01/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 126 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 2.3% 4.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 6.0% 4.6% 3.6% 2.7% 5.3% 5.1% 4.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 4.6% 3.5% 2.7% 2.0% 4.0% 4.3% 4.2% SHIPS-RII 8.0% 16.5% 13.4% 10.6% 8.2% 15.6% 14.6% 11.8% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 1.1% 2.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.8% Bayesian 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Iona at 08/01/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 123 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.2% 1.4% 1.0% 0.8% 1.2% 1.0% 3.5% 6.8% SHIPS Consensus 5.3% 10.9% 6.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.2% 8.5% 5.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.7% 1.2% 2.0% SHIPS-RII 11.8% 23.7% 17.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.1% 3.7% 2.0% 1.9% 2.1% 1.5% 3.2% 3.4% Logistic Regression 3.7% 5.9% 2.6% 1.7% 0.4% 1.6% 1.2% 1.1% Bayesian 0.4% 3.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% DTOPS 3.0% 6.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Iona at 07/31/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 121 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.0% 2.2% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 2.2% 6.4% 6.8% SHIPS Consensus 6.4% 14.4% 8.1% 6.2% 3.9% 7.8% 6.0% 0.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.5% 11.3% 6.3% 4.9% 3.2% 6.3% 6.1% 1.9% SHIPS-RII 11.1% 22.0% 17.1% 13.7% 10.5% 19.2% 16.1% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.0% 4.6% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.6% 5.2% 3.4% Logistic Regression 7.5% 15.5% 6.8% 4.9% 1.2% 3.4% 1.3% 1.0% Bayesian 0.5% 5.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.8% 0.8% 0.1% DTOPS 3.0% 7.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 4.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------     Iona at 07/31/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 115 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.0% 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 2.2% 0.5% 2.8% 2.4% SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 7.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 6.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.8% 0.7% SHIPS-RII 8.0% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 2.1% 0.9% 1.4% 2.1% 0.7% 1.9% 1.2% Logistic Regression 2.6% 5.5% 1.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.7% Bayesian 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Iona at 07/31/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 122 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 1.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.8% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Iona at 07/31/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 120 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 1.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Iona at 07/30/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 110 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Iona at 07/30/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 120 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 0.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 1.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Iona at 07/30/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 95 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.4% 3.8% 1.6% 2.0% 5.0% 1.1% 0.6% 1.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 3.2% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 3.3% 2.1% 0.5% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 4.2% 7.7% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.2% 1.9% 0.8% 1.0% 2.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.5% 1.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Iona at 07/30/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 97 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 10.0% 2.9% 2.0% 2.9% 5.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 3.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.9% 3.4% 0.7% 0.8% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 8.5% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 5.0% 1.4% 1.0% 1.4% 2.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.3% 1.8% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Iona at 07/29/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 109 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.3% 2.7% 2.2% 3.1% 2.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 7.1% 5.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.6% 4.9% 1.2% 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 14.0% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 4.6% 1.3% 1.1% 1.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 4.4% 3.4% 2.7% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian 2.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Iona at 07/29/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 147 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 10.6% 5.1% 3.6% 5.7% 3.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 32.6% 13.8% 6.9% 5.2% 4.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 27.1% 11.6% 6.0% 5.3% 3.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 64.7% 22.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 16.8% 3.0% 2.3% 2.8% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 32.0% 18.9% 20.7% 15.7% 12.6% 2.6% 1.1% 0.1% Bayesian 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 23.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------     Iona at 07/29/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 144 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 22.3% 26.7% 26.9% 27.0% 16.1% 5.9% 0.5% 1.0% SHIPS Consensus 29.2% 19.0% 18.0% 15.4% 12.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 27.5% 20.9% 20.1% 18.2% 13.0% 2.2% 0.3% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 59.3% 29.2% 28.2% 27.2% 19.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 35.1% 14.8% 13.9% 14.0% 8.5% 2.9% 0.2% 0.5% Logistic Regression 24.5% 26.5% 25.5% 18.9% 16.4% 3.2% 0.8% 0.2% Bayesian 3.9% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 48.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Iona at 07/29/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 121 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 21.5% 22.6% 16.2% 23.8% 21.0% 14.1% 3.4% 5.5% SHIPS Consensus 17.2% 26.4% 18.0% 12.4% 8.8% 8.2% 0.1% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 18.3% 25.4% 17.5% 15.2% 11.8% 9.6% 0.9% 1.4% SHIPS-RII 29.3% 30.6% 26.0% 21.2% 15.7% 21.8% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 41.7% 45.8% 36.6% 36.4% 31.5% 10.5% 1.7% 2.7% Logistic Regression 20.4% 37.2% 26.9% 15.4% 10.3% 2.3% 0.3% 0.3% Bayesian 2.0% 11.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 62.0% 69.0% 57.0% 49.0% 42.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Iona at 07/28/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 121 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 23.7% 32.2% 18.6% 17.6% 11.9% 30.3% 6.6% 14.0% SHIPS Consensus 20.6% 29.5% 22.9% 16.3% 11.8% 10.4% 5.7% 0.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 21.3% 30.1% 21.7% 16.6% 11.7% 15.4% 5.9% 3.7% SHIPS-RII 40.0% 44.2% 41.1% 33.9% 24.4% 25.3% 15.8% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 37.8% 56.1% 46.3% 41.3% 34.9% 27.1% 4.3% 7.0% Logistic Regression 19.9% 35.3% 26.7% 14.7% 10.2% 5.5% 1.2% 1.0% Bayesian 1.9% 8.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS 52.0% 80.0% 74.0% 65.0% 58.0% 24.0% 2.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Iona at 07/28/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 146 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 15.3% 45.9% 28.7% 21.9% 12.4% 40.6% 9.6% 17.5% SHIPS Consensus 20.7% 32.1% 24.5% 19.0% 13.6% 10.5% 6.1% 0.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 19.3% 35.5% 25.5% 19.7% 13.3% 18.0% 6.9% 4.7% SHIPS-RII 42.9% 50.2% 45.8% 42.0% 34.1% 27.1% 17.2% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 28.6% 41.4% 28.8% 24.9% 13.2% 28.3% 5.8% 8.7% Logistic Regression 16.6% 35.4% 26.8% 14.5% 6.6% 4.0% 0.9% 1.5% Bayesian 2.7% 10.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS 42.0% 37.0% 29.0% 28.0% 14.0% 16.0% 2.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Iona at 07/28/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 114 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 17.0% 34.6% 16.9% 14.7% 9.4% 23.3% 17.6% 28.3% SHIPS Consensus 12.3% 29.6% 19.1% 12.3% 7.6% 10.2% 6.7% 1.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 13.4% 30.7% 18.5% 12.8% 8.0% 13.5% 9.4% 7.8% SHIPS-RII 15.7% 30.9% 23.4% 17.7% 14.6% 25.2% 19.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 18.0% 42.3% 28.9% 22.8% 12.2% 29.1% 13.3% 14.1% Logistic Regression 19.2% 47.6% 33.3% 18.9% 7.7% 5.0% 0.9% 3.0% Bayesian 2.0% 10.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS 19.0% 50.0% 41.0% 31.0% 15.0% 35.0% 9.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Iona at 07/28/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 143 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 13.9% 26.4% 9.6% 8.3% 7.9% 22.5% 14.3% 33.1% SHIPS Consensus 7.0% 21.4% 13.0% 8.3% 5.6% 8.9% 5.7% 1.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.7% 22.6% 12.2% 8.3% 6.1% 12.3% 7.8% 9.2% SHIPS-RII 11.9% 23.2% 17.5% 14.5% 11.9% 21.7% 16.2% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 9.4% 28.7% 14.8% 9.6% 7.4% 17.2% 14.6% 17.5% Logistic Regression 8.6% 37.6% 21.5% 10.5% 4.7% 4.7% 0.6% 3.7% Bayesian 0.4% 3.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS 5.0% 31.0% 20.0% 11.0% 7.0% 12.0% 15.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   One at 07/27/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 143 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.9% 11.3% 7.5% 3.7% 1.5% 10.7% 11.8% 24.5% SHIPS Consensus 4.1% 12.2% 7.3% 5.1% 0.5% 7.1% 5.5% 0.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.5% 11.9% 7.3% 4.7% 0.7% 8.0% 7.1% 6.6% SHIPS-RII 9.8% 21.1% 15.8% 12.9% 0.0% 20.3% 16.4% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.4% 18.6% 11.2% 4.3% 2.2% 15.8% 10.4% 13.2% Logistic Regression 2.5% 15.1% 6.0% 2.5% 1.5% 1.1% 0.2% 2.2% Bayesian 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 26.0% 15.0% 5.0% 3.0% 21.0% 9.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   One at 07/27/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 140 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.6% 29.1% 10.8% 5.3% 1.8% 16.9% 13.4% 30.9% SHIPS Consensus 5.0% 13.0% 7.8% 5.6% 0.6% 7.5% 6.0% 1.8% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.6% 17.0% 8.5% 5.5% 0.9% 9.8% 7.8% 9.0% SHIPS-RII 11.2% 22.2% 16.9% 13.9% 0.0% 21.2% 17.2% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 4.8% 22.5% 9.4% 4.1% 1.4% 11.4% 9.2% 17.9% Logistic Regression 2.8% 15.1% 6.1% 2.7% 1.8% 1.1% 0.4% 5.3% Bayesian 0.9% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 16.0% 8.0% 3.0% 1.0% 6.0% 5.0% 5.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------