Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Keli at 07/30/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 83 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.6% 5.3% SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 4.1% 3.5% 2.7% 1.8% 4.1% 3.8% N/A AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 3.2% 2.7% 2.0% 1.3% 3.2% 3.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 7.2% 12.1% 10.5% 8.0% 5.4% 12.3% 11.5% N/A AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 2.6% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Keli at 07/30/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 91 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.5% 2.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.4% 6.3% 0.6% 7.2% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 5.0% 3.4% 2.5% 1.8% 3.8% 3.4% N/A AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 4.4% 2.7% 1.9% 1.4% 4.4% 2.6% N/A SHIPS-RII 7.3% 14.1% 9.9% 7.4% 5.2% 11.4% 10.2% N/A AI-RI and DTOPS 1.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 3.1% 0.3% 3.6% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% N/A Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Keli at 07/30/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 95 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.2% 4.3% 1.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 10.1% SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 5.7% 4.0% 3.0% 2.3% 4.1% 3.8% 3.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 5.3% 3.3% 2.4% 1.8% 3.2% 2.9% 4.7% SHIPS-RII 8.0% 15.4% 11.4% 8.9% 6.7% 12.3% 11.3% 8.9% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 2.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 5.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Keli at 07/30/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 102 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.5% 5.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.7% 2.3% 11.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.4% 6.6% 4.6% 3.5% 2.8% 5.0% 4.4% 3.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 6.3% 3.7% 2.6% 2.1% 3.9% 3.9% 5.3% SHIPS-RII 9.2% 17.5% 12.8% 10.2% 8.0% 14.9% 13.3% 10.3% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 3.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 1.1% 5.5% Logistic Regression 1.0% 2.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Keli at 07/29/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 104 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 2.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 4.4% SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 8.0% 5.5% 4.1% 3.5% 5.8% 5.0% 3.8% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 6.6% 4.3% 3.1% 2.6% 4.4% 3.8% 3.9% SHIPS-RII 9.9% 20.1% 14.6% 11.9% 9.6% 17.5% 15.0% 11.3% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 2.4% 1.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 2.2% Logistic Regression 1.3% 3.8% 1.8% 0.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Keli at 07/29/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 106 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.7% 8.4% 1.2% 0.6% 0.4% 2.0% 0.5% 4.3% SHIPS Consensus 4.4% 9.6% 6.5% 4.3% 4.0% 6.0% 5.3% 4.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.0% 9.3% 5.2% 3.4% 3.1% 4.9% 4.0% 4.1% SHIPS-RII 9.8% 19.5% 14.2% 11.8% 9.7% 17.8% 15.8% 11.8% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.3% 4.7% 1.1% 0.8% 0.2% 1.0% 0.2% 2.1% Logistic Regression 3.5% 9.1% 5.4% 1.2% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Keli at 07/29/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 104 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.1% 8.6% 2.3% 0.7% 0.7% 2.5% 0.6% 3.4% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 9.4% 6.6% 4.5% 0.5% 6.0% 5.3% 4.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 9.2% 5.5% 3.4% 0.5% 5.1% 4.1% 3.9% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 20.0% 14.5% 12.1% 0.0% 17.9% 16.0% 12.2% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 5.3% 1.6% 0.8% 0.3% 1.2% 0.3% 1.7% Logistic Regression 3.1% 8.1% 5.4% 1.2% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Keli at 07/29/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 99 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.8% 8.6% 2.2% 1.2% 0.6% 3.6% 0.5% 6.6% SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 11.8% 8.6% 0.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 11.0% 6.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.1% 1.7% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 23.5% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.9% 5.8% 2.1% 1.1% 0.8% 1.8% 0.7% 3.3% Logistic Regression 4.8% 11.8% 9.1% 2.3% 2.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% Bayesian 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Keli at 07/28/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 100 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 4.3% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 1.5% 1.2% 6.1% SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 7.0% 5.5% 1.7% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 6.0% 3.9% 1.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.3% 1.7% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 3.6% 1.2% 0.8% 0.1% 1.2% 1.1% 3.5% Logistic Regression 5.7% 20.6% 16.5% 5.1% 5.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% Bayesian 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Two at 07/28/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 100 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.1% 17.0% 5.3% 3.9% 1.0% 10.5% 1.8% 3.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 13.1% 10.0% 1.2% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 14.1% 8.8% 1.8% 1.5% 2.6% 0.4% 0.8% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 25.7% 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 4.5% 13.3% 12.8% 3.6% 5.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------