Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Alvin at 05/31/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 0 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Alvin at 05/31/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 18 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Alvin at 05/31/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 68 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Alvin at 05/30/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 81 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Alvin at 05/30/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 108 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Alvin at 05/30/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 117 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 1.5% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 4.3% SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 4.9% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 4.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SHIPS-RII 8.7% 14.7% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Alvin at 05/30/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 119 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 2.8% 1.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 4.0% SHIPS Consensus 9.4% 10.6% 6.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.0% 8.6% 5.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SHIPS-RII 23.6% 30.6% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.1% 1.9% 1.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% Logistic Regression 2.2% 1.1% 1.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Alvin at 05/29/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 130 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 14.1% 23.1% 11.3% 3.7% 2.6% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 26.0% 23.0% 18.6% 9.9% 6.5% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 23.0% 23.0% 16.7% 8.4% 5.5% 6.2% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 31.2% 50.8% 37.8% 25.1% 14.8% 22.7% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 13.0% 15.0% 7.6% 3.8% 2.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% Logistic Regression 21.1% 15.3% 15.4% 3.5% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 25.6% 3.0% 2.6% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 12.0% 7.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   One at 05/29/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 168 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.4% 21.0% 10.6% 3.4% 1.5% 5.8% 2.4% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 13.3% 25.6% 16.0% 9.0% 2.2% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 11.8% 24.4% 14.6% 7.5% 2.0% 6.7% 0.6% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 13.1% 42.0% 21.5% 16.9% 0.0% 20.9% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 4.7% 14.5% 6.8% 2.2% 0.7% 3.4% 1.7% 1.0% Logistic Regression 20.6% 32.8% 24.9% 9.4% 6.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian 6.2% 2.1% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 8.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   One at 05/29/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 158 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.0% 26.3% 7.9% 2.0% 2.8% 12.5% 4.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 8.3% 13.0% 9.3% 6.3% 0.3% 6.9% 4.7% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.7% 16.3% 8.9% 5.2% 0.8% 8.3% 4.5% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 12.3% 24.9% 19.1% 16.1% 0.0% 20.6% 14.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.5% 21.6% 8.4% 2.5% 1.9% 7.7% 3.5% 0.5% Logistic Regression 6.4% 11.9% 6.9% 2.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian 6.1% 2.1% 1.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 3.0% 17.0% 9.0% 3.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   One at 05/29/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 173 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.8% 42.0% 18.6% 7.4% 3.7% 12.5% 8.6% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 19.3% 41.2% 35.7% 25.7% 3.2% 16.4% 8.2% 0.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 16.1% 41.3% 31.3% 21.1% 3.3% 15.4% 8.2% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 27.9% 69.2% 61.4% 51.4% 0.0% 46.5% 24.4% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 5.4% 35.0% 19.3% 8.7% 3.3% 13.2% 8.8% 1.8% Logistic Regression 19.1% 43.7% 33.1% 21.1% 9.0% 2.5% 0.2% 0.4% Bayesian 10.9% 10.5% 12.4% 4.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% DTOPS 4.0% 28.0% 20.0% 10.0% 3.0% 14.0% 9.0% 3.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   One at 05/28/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 171 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.1% 50.3% 25.4% 21.9% 12.3% 37.6% 31.8% 11.4% SHIPS Consensus 27.9% 63.4% 58.0% 40.8% 7.2% 34.1% 25.0% 0.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 22.4% 60.1% 49.8% 36.0% 8.5% 34.9% 26.6% 3.3% SHIPS-RII 20.2% 62.5% 54.7% 43.4% 0.0% 59.3% 62.6% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 4.5% 41.6% 22.2% 15.9% 7.6% 27.3% 23.4% 10.7% Logistic Regression 31.2% 72.3% 59.4% 47.8% 19.3% 28.2% 6.7% 1.9% Bayesian 32.3% 55.6% 60.0% 31.1% 2.4% 14.7% 5.6% 0.2% DTOPS 3.0% 33.0% 19.0% 10.0% 3.0% 17.0% 15.0% 10.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------