Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Barbara intensity image current Barbara RI diff image

 


Barbara at 06/11/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 26 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 3.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0%
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Barbara at 06/10/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 17 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Barbara at 06/10/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Barbara at 06/10/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 53 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 1.4% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Barbara at 06/10/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 52 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.9% 1.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.9% SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 3.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 7.0% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Barbara at 06/09/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 81 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.3% 2.3% 0.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 1.9% SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 4.7% 3.5% 2.8% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 4.1% 2.8% 2.3% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 11.1% 13.3% 10.1% 8.2% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Barbara at 06/09/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 94 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 14.5% 13.8% 2.9% 2.7% 1.2% 1.7% 0.9% 1.1% SHIPS Consensus 5.5% 7.2% 5.3% 4.2% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.7% 8.8% 4.6% 3.8% 2.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 14.6% 19.2% 14.7% 12.3% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 9.2% 7.4% 1.9% 1.8% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.5% Logistic Regression 1.7% 2.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Barbara at 06/09/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 96 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 15.7% 17.8% 4.5% 4.2% 4.8% 8.2% 2.9% 1.6% SHIPS Consensus 5.6% 8.8% 6.3% 5.0% 3.9% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.1% 11.0% 5.8% 4.8% 4.1% 5.6% 0.7% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 14.6% 21.7% 16.8% 14.3% 11.3% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 11.3% 10.4% 3.2% 3.1% 3.4% 4.1% 1.4% 0.8% Logistic Regression 1.9% 4.4% 1.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Barbara at 06/09/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 130 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 10.5% 21.5% 6.6% 3.7% 3.7% 7.5% 1.8% 1.3% SHIPS Consensus 4.5% 8.6% 5.9% 4.7% 3.5% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.9% 11.8% 6.1% 4.4% 3.5% 5.6% 0.4% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 12.4% 21.8% 16.3% 13.5% 10.5% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 8.7% 16.2% 6.3% 4.3% 3.3% 3.7% 0.9% 0.6% Logistic Regression 0.9% 3.6% 1.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 7.0% 11.0% 6.0% 5.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Barbara at 06/08/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 137 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.8% 16.0% 13.0% 10.2% 2.1% 6.4% 16.5% 3.5% SHIPS Consensus 8.9% 21.5% 14.2% 8.7% 5.5% 8.7% 4.6% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.6% 20.1% 13.9% 9.0% 4.6% 8.1% 7.5% 0.8% SHIPS-RII 15.6% 38.9% 27.2% 18.1% 14.2% 23.4% 13.6% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 15.9% 30.0% 20.5% 14.1% 7.0% 5.2% 8.7% 1.7% Logistic Regression 7.5% 21.3% 11.8% 6.0% 2.3% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 3.6% 4.3% 3.7% 2.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 28.0% 44.0% 28.0% 18.0% 12.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0%
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Barbara at 06/08/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 158 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 33.1% 66.8% 42.4% 34.6% 25.7% 53.0% 23.5% 2.8% SHIPS Consensus 65.3% 69.0% 64.8% 58.1% 31.1% 33.1% 7.4% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 57.2% 68.5% 59.2% 52.1% 29.7% 38.0% 11.3% 0.7% SHIPS-RII 52.9% 78.0% 68.8% 60.4% 39.0% 52.1% 20.2% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 36.0% 62.4% 48.7% 40.3% 25.8% 38.5% 13.2% 1.4% Logistic Regression 69.4% 78.8% 68.2% 60.1% 35.9% 38.6% 1.6% 0.2%
Bayesian 73.5% 50.4% 57.4% 53.7% 18.5% 8.5% 0.2% 0.0%
DTOPS 39.0% 58.0% 55.0% 46.0% 26.0% 24.0% 3.0% 0.0%
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Barbara at 06/08/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 156 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 20.1% 56.0% 33.2% 24.8% 5.8% 41.3% 7.0% 15.6% SHIPS Consensus 15.2% 37.4% 29.5% 17.7% 7.8% 17.8% 8.6% 3.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 16.4% 42.0% 30.4% 19.5% 7.3% 23.6% 8.2% 6.1% SHIPS-RII 19.8% 47.8% 39.3% 26.6% 17.5% 28.4% 20.3% 8.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 15.5% 60.5% 43.1% 29.9% 17.4% 37.6% 5.0% 7.8% Logistic Regression 17.9% 44.5% 30.6% 20.1% 5.4% 21.4% 4.6% 0.3%
Bayesian 7.8% 19.9% 18.6% 6.5% 0.6% 3.6% 1.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 11.0% 65.0% 53.0% 35.0% 29.0% 34.0% 3.0% 0.0%
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