Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Three intensity image current Three RI diff image

 


Cosme at 06/11/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 96 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 2.5% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Cosme at 06/11/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 90 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 4.0% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Cosme at 06/11/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 80 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 1.9% 1.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 5.8% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Cosme at 06/10/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 73 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 3.0% 2.3% 1.6% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 2.2% 1.7% 1.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 3.2% 8.9% 6.8% 4.8% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Cosme at 06/10/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 88 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 1.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 1.2% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 4.5% 3.4% 2.6% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 3.6% 2.8% 2.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 6.0% 13.3% 10.0% 7.8% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Cosme at 06/10/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 92 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.3% 2.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 2.3% SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 5.8% 4.4% 3.4% 2.6% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 4.9% 3.5% 2.6% 2.1% 3.0% 0.0% 0.5% SHIPS-RII 9.1% 16.7% 12.6% 10.3% 7.7% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.1% 1.7% 1.1% 0.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 1.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Cosme at 06/10/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 105 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.8% 1.4% 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 5.3% 4.2% 3.4% 2.5% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 4.5% 3.5% 2.8% 2.1% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 10.2% 15.5% 12.1% 10.1% 7.5% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Cosme at 06/09/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 98 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.0% 2.4% 1.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.4% 7.4% 5.8% 4.6% 3.5% 5.3% 3.3% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.7% 6.1% 4.6% 3.6% 2.7% 4.0% 2.5% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 15.1% 20.5% 16.1% 13.6% 10.3% 16.0% 9.8% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 6.0% 3.2% 2.0% 2.5% 1.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.7% 1.5% 1.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 9.0% 4.0% 3.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Cosme at 06/09/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 89 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.6% 9.4% 2.6% 0.5% 0.8% 1.0% 1.6% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 6.0% 9.4% 6.8% 5.2% 4.4% 6.6% 4.5% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.3% 9.4% 5.7% 4.0% 3.4% 5.1% 3.7% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 15.6% 24.5% 18.4% 15.4% 12.0% 19.7% 13.4% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 12.3% 17.7% 9.8% 6.7% 4.9% 1.5% 1.3% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.3% 3.3% 2.0% 0.2% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 21.0% 26.0% 17.0% 13.0% 9.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%
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Cosme at 06/09/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 98 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.6% 2.4% 1.1% 0.5% 0.7% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 5.9% 4.6% 3.6% 3.0% 5.0% 4.4% 1.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 5.0% 3.7% 2.8% 2.3% 3.9% 3.4% 1.5% SHIPS-RII 9.7% 16.4% 13.2% 10.9% 8.7% 14.8% 13.3% 5.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.3% 10.2% 6.0% 4.2% 2.8% 1.9% 0.8% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 5.0% 18.0% 11.0% 8.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0%
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Cosme at 06/08/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 112 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.0% 13.5% 4.1% 1.1% 0.3% 2.9% 4.9% 5.7% SHIPS Consensus 4.2% 7.5% 5.5% 4.3% 3.9% 6.2% 4.8% 2.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 9.0% 5.1% 3.5% 2.9% 5.4% 4.8% 3.5% SHIPS-RII 11.6% 19.0% 15.3% 12.8% 10.6% 18.6% 14.4% 8.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 5.0% 20.7% 10.5% 5.0% 2.1% 7.9% 3.9% 2.8% Logistic Regression 0.7% 3.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 7.0% 28.0% 17.0% 9.0% 4.0% 13.0% 3.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Three at 06/08/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 161 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.0% 16.3% 3.6% 1.8% 0.7% 5.4% 5.1% 7.8% SHIPS Consensus 3.4% 7.1% 5.2% 4.1% 0.1% 6.5% 5.5% 4.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 9.3% 4.8% 3.5% 0.2% 6.2% 5.4% 4.9% SHIPS-RII 9.7% 18.4% 14.8% 12.3% 0.0% 19.3% 16.6% 11.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.5% 22.1% 9.3% 3.4% 1.3% 9.2% 6.5% 4.4% Logistic Regression 0.3% 2.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 28.0% 15.0% 5.0% 2.0% 13.0% 8.0% 1.0%
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