Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Erick at 06/20/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 151 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 3.5% 1.6% 0.6% 0.9% N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 3.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.6% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 1.3% 9.5% 4.7% 1.7% 2.6% N/A N/A N/A DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erick at 06/19/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 151 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 6.4% 5.6% 3.6% 2.7% 1.6% N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.8% 4.2% 2.7% 2.0% 1.2% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 19.3% 15.9% 10.8% 8.2% 4.9% N/A N/A N/A DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erick at 06/19/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 164 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.3% 4.8% 3.6% 2.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 6.8% 3.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% N/A AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 6.3% 3.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 6.0% 15.0% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 2.4% 1.8% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.1% 4.7% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% N/A Bayesian 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erick at 06/19/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 159 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.4% 9.0% 4.2% 10.1% 2.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 49.1% 23.2% 8.2% 7.4% 2.3% 0.9% 0.1% N/A AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 38.6% 19.5% 7.2% 8.0% 2.4% 0.7% 0.1% N/A SHIPS-RII 44.8% 21.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A AI-RI and DTOPS 3.7% 4.5% 2.1% 5.0% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 53.7% 39.3% 22.0% 20.5% 6.9% 2.8% 0.4% N/A Bayesian 48.8% 8.2% 2.7% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% N/A DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erick at 06/19/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 152 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 32.5% 17.4% 9.6% 12.1% 8.0% 3.1% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 70.0% 60.6% 55.0% 49.0% 19.0% 14.0% 1.4% 0.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 60.6% 49.8% 43.6% 39.7% 16.2% 11.2% 1.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 72.7% 54.7% 44.1% 34.8% 23.8% 23.6% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 16.2% 8.7% 4.8% 6.0% 4.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 64.1% 62.6% 47.9% 47.4% 17.2% 18.1% 4.1% 0.9% Bayesian 73.2% 64.6% 72.9% 64.8% 15.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erick at 06/18/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 152 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 25.9% 40.8% 29.7% 28.5% 15.9% 16.7% 0.5% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 76.9% 79.5% 80.1% 76.9% 49.1% 30.0% 4.3% 1.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 64.1% 69.8% 67.5% 64.8% 40.8% 26.6% 3.3% 0.9% SHIPS-RII 88.9% 81.6% 78.2% 76.6% 60.9% 35.4% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 48.9% 20.4% 14.8% 14.2% 7.9% 8.3% 0.2% 0.1% Logistic Regression 77.5% 81.8% 73.4% 74.2% 58.4% 40.6% 12.6% 3.5% Bayesian 64.3% 75.0% 88.7% 80.0% 28.2% 13.9% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS 72.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erick at 06/18/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 158 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 35.2% 67.0% 52.5% 48.9% 34.1% 62.0% 10.9% 1.5% SHIPS Consensus 78.7% 91.4% 89.8% 87.4% 78.0% 75.0% 34.9% 10.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 67.8% 85.3% 80.4% 77.8% 67.0% 71.7% 28.9% 8.2% SHIPS-RII 77.8% 100.0% 99.0% 97.6% 86.0% 72.0% 54.1% 21.7% AI-RI and DTOPS 49.1% 46.5% 35.2% 35.9% 23.5% 31.0% 5.4% 0.7% Logistic Regression 74.6% 86.0% 76.2% 76.0% 72.8% 66.2% 26.5% 6.8% Bayesian 83.8% 88.2% 94.1% 88.7% 75.1% 86.9% 24.2% 3.1% DTOPS 63.0% 26.0% 18.0% 23.0% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erick at 06/18/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 154 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 31.3% 69.6% 57.1% 43.0% 29.6% 63.1% 30.3% 3.3% SHIPS Consensus 41.5% 81.6% 75.7% 66.3% 53.1% 69.3% 56.0% 29.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 38.9% 78.6% 71.0% 60.4% 47.2% 67.7% 49.5% 22.7% SHIPS-RII 43.2% 95.0% 88.3% 85.6% 72.5% 82.5% 67.0% 54.1% AI-RI and DTOPS 29.6% 74.3% 64.0% 53.5% 47.8% 35.5% 15.1% 1.6% Logistic Regression 39.8% 75.1% 56.9% 50.6% 49.2% 46.2% 41.0% 9.6% Bayesian 41.6% 74.7% 81.8% 62.6% 37.7% 79.2% 60.0% 23.8% DTOPS 28.0% 79.0% 71.0% 64.0% 66.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erick at 06/18/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 153 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 16.2% 46.7% 39.2% 17.6% 10.7% 42.8% 26.4% 6.9% SHIPS Consensus 19.7% 65.5% 54.2% 42.6% 33.6% 56.9% 54.3% 29.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 13.1% 53.0% 40.5% 25.8% 19.6% 46.5% 47.3% 23.9% SHIPS-RII 29.3% 82.9% 70.4% 61.9% 51.1% 83.4% 74.3% 53.9% AI-RI and DTOPS 20.1% 51.3% 42.6% 21.8% 10.8% 27.4% 13.2% 3.4% Logistic Regression 22.0% 62.0% 35.2% 29.9% 29.0% 40.0% 53.0% 15.4% Bayesian 7.9% 51.5% 57.1% 35.9% 20.7% 47.3% 35.6% 19.3% DTOPS 28.0% 63.0% 57.0% 42.0% 22.0% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erick at 06/17/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 161 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 12.2% 45.2% 28.1% 19.5% 12.8% 55.8% 33.7% 19.4% SHIPS Consensus 18.9% 69.4% 50.9% 36.3% 21.9% 53.7% 60.1% 29.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 17.2% 63.3% 45.2% 32.0% 19.5% 54.2% 53.5% 26.7% SHIPS-RII 15.8% 58.9% 44.4% 33.7% 25.6% 61.0% 71.7% 53.8% AI-RI and DTOPS 16.1% 53.1% 41.5% 29.2% 16.4% 44.4% 17.8% 9.7% Logistic Regression 28.2% 67.5% 41.0% 31.5% 20.2% 40.6% 58.2% 19.9% Bayesian 12.7% 81.9% 67.4% 43.6% 19.8% 59.6% 50.5% 14.0% DTOPS 20.0% 61.0% 55.0% 39.0% 20.0% 33.0% 2.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erick at 06/17/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 152 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 19.0% 67.4% 49.8% 36.7% 21.0% 61.2% 25.8% 37.1% SHIPS Consensus 17.0% 70.6% 49.2% 32.4% 25.6% 60.8% 71.6% 35.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 17.5% 69.7% 49.4% 33.4% 24.4% 60.8% 60.1% 35.6% SHIPS-RII 14.9% 51.7% 39.0% 25.0% 18.9% 46.1% 68.1% 53.6% AI-RI and DTOPS 14.0% 56.2% 43.9% 31.3% 16.0% 39.6% 25.9% 18.5% Logistic Regression 30.8% 80.4% 58.8% 50.4% 33.9% 55.1% 75.1% 33.1% Bayesian 5.5% 79.6% 50.0% 21.8% 24.1% 81.1% 71.6% 18.9% DTOPS 9.0% 45.0% 38.0% 26.0% 11.0% 18.0% 26.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Erick at 06/17/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 151 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 15.1% 57.7% 27.9% 28.2% 7.0% 46.5% 10.3% 35.4% SHIPS Consensus 7.4% 45.3% 23.1% 15.3% 9.1% 32.2% 56.5% 55.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.3% 48.4% 24.3% 18.5% 8.5% 35.8% 44.9% 50.3% SHIPS-RII 11.8% 32.0% 19.6% 16.4% 13.8% 29.8% 59.8% 53.6% AI-RI and DTOPS 10.5% 44.8% 25.9% 21.6% 6.0% 38.7% 17.6% 19.7% Logistic Regression 9.2% 61.8% 33.4% 24.6% 9.5% 50.1% 82.3% 47.2% Bayesian 1.1% 42.2% 16.5% 5.1% 4.0% 16.8% 27.5% 65.3% DTOPS 6.0% 34.0% 18.0% 11.0% 5.0% 21.0% 30.0% 4.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Five at 06/16/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 152 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.5% 46.9% 7.8% 4.7% 2.9% 22.7% 8.9% 36.3% SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 12.8% 6.8% 4.9% 0.1% 10.5% 20.3% 22.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 21.3% 7.0% 4.8% 0.8% 13.5% 17.4% 25.9% SHIPS-RII 9.1% 21.9% 16.1% 13.1% 0.0% 23.7% 22.5% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.7% 26.9% 5.9% 3.3% 1.9% 13.3% 7.4% 27.6% Logistic Regression 0.6% 9.9% 3.1% 1.5% 0.3% 7.8% 37.7% 34.9% Bayesian 0.1% 6.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 32.5% DTOPS 1.0% 7.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 4.0% 6.0% 19.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------