Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Flossie at 07/03/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 27 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Flossie at 07/03/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 28 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Flossie at 07/03/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 30 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Flossie at 07/03/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 61 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Flossie at 07/02/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 87 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Flossie at 07/02/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 91 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Flossie at 07/02/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 87 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Flossie at 07/02/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 126 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.2% 4.8% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 7.4% 6.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.3% 5.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 17.6% 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 5.1% 2.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.7% 1.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Flossie at 07/01/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 138 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 15.5% 12.9% 7.7% 4.5% 0.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 27.8% 13.7% 9.7% 7.1% 5.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 24.7% 13.5% 9.2% 6.4% 4.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 37.8% 23.5% 18.6% 15.9% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 22.7% 9.9% 5.8% 3.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 32.1% 17.5% 10.5% 5.4% 4.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 13.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 30.0% 7.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Flossie at 07/01/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 143 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 29.4% 39.2% 22.0% 15.0% 4.7% 17.6% 0.4% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 30.7% 28.1% 17.2% 11.7% 7.4% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 30.4% 30.9% 18.4% 12.5% 6.7% 9.8% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 31.4% 37.9% 25.0% 17.7% 14.6% 20.8% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 33.7% 40.6% 24.5% 15.5% 7.8% 9.8% 0.2% 0.0% Logistic Regression 34.0% 36.9% 21.5% 14.1% 6.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 26.8% 9.6% 5.2% 3.3% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 38.0% 42.0% 27.0% 16.0% 11.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Flossie at 07/01/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 149 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 22.0% 52.3% 31.8% 30.2% 14.2% 32.9% 0.8% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 25.2% 31.4% 21.5% 14.8% 7.7% 9.0% 5.5% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 24.4% 36.6% 24.0% 18.6% 9.3% 15.0% 4.3% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 37.3% 47.2% 38.2% 26.2% 17.4% 24.1% 16.3% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 27.0% 44.6% 28.9% 27.1% 17.6% 21.9% 0.4% 0.3% Logistic Regression 17.5% 34.2% 18.1% 12.7% 5.2% 2.4% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian 20.9% 12.8% 8.1% 5.4% 0.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 32.0% 37.0% 26.0% 24.0% 21.0% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Flossie at 07/01/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 147 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 21.3% 59.5% 40.5% 22.4% 10.6% 47.0% 8.7% 2.5% SHIPS Consensus 41.7% 53.0% 40.4% 32.7% 15.7% 16.4% 6.8% 2.8% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 26.5% 52.5% 37.0% 26.6% 13.3% 24.3% 7.4% 2.9% SHIPS-RII 52.7% 62.2% 49.2% 41.1% 28.5% 30.0% 19.1% 8.5% AI-RI and DTOPS 27.6% 56.7% 41.2% 27.7% 12.8% 39.5% 7.3% 1.2% Logistic Regression 33.8% 56.8% 39.9% 32.4% 12.1% 15.6% 1.2% 0.1% Bayesian 38.6% 39.9% 32.0% 24.5% 6.3% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS 47.0% 60.0% 49.0% 39.0% 19.0% 30.0% 3.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Flossie at 06/30/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 146 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 19.3% 47.5% 22.1% 21.7% 10.5% 39.8% 13.3% 5.7% SHIPS Consensus 19.6% 45.6% 31.8% 22.3% 14.3% 16.5% 7.7% 3.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 19.5% 46.1% 29.3% 22.1% 13.3% 22.2% 9.0% 3.9% SHIPS-RII 23.2% 56.9% 44.4% 34.5% 22.1% 31.4% 20.0% 9.8% AI-RI and DTOPS 20.6% 45.7% 25.0% 23.3% 11.2% 31.4% 11.6% 2.8% Logistic Regression 16.6% 41.1% 22.9% 15.5% 8.0% 10.4% 2.4% 0.1% Bayesian 19.2% 38.9% 28.0% 17.0% 12.8% 7.6% 0.6% 0.0% DTOPS 22.0% 44.0% 28.0% 25.0% 12.0% 23.0% 10.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Flossie at 06/30/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 163 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 13.4% 62.3% 32.4% 35.0% 12.4% 50.6% 25.5% 13.8% SHIPS Consensus 13.2% 53.0% 35.8% 22.9% 12.3% 31.6% 20.9% 4.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 13.2% 55.3% 34.9% 25.9% 12.3% 36.3% 22.0% 6.9% SHIPS-RII 15.1% 53.5% 39.9% 26.3% 17.4% 40.6% 49.5% 13.7% AI-RI and DTOPS 16.7% 57.1% 33.2% 29.0% 14.7% 34.8% 27.2% 6.9% Logistic Regression 15.3% 52.7% 31.3% 22.1% 10.9% 26.5% 8.2% 0.4% Bayesian 9.2% 52.8% 36.2% 20.5% 8.7% 27.6% 5.1% 0.0% DTOPS 20.0% 52.0% 34.0% 23.0% 17.0% 19.0% 29.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Flossie at 06/30/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 149 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.2% 55.6% 26.1% 24.6% 14.4% 48.2% 8.2% 27.9% SHIPS Consensus 8.2% 39.2% 28.7% 16.9% 9.5% 28.1% 20.1% 6.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.6% 43.3% 28.0% 18.8% 10.7% 33.1% 17.0% 11.5% SHIPS-RII 13.9% 43.3% 33.6% 22.4% 16.3% 34.9% 40.3% 17.6% AI-RI and DTOPS 9.1% 54.3% 35.5% 27.8% 19.2% 41.1% 22.6% 14.9% Logistic Regression 8.1% 45.3% 26.0% 17.9% 10.8% 28.7% 14.3% 0.5% Bayesian 2.5% 29.0% 26.5% 10.4% 1.3% 20.8% 5.6% 0.2% DTOPS 12.0% 54.0% 38.0% 27.0% 23.0% 27.0% 42.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Flossie at 06/30/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 148 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.3% 51.7% 29.8% 20.3% 8.5% 39.4% 20.0% 29.0% SHIPS Consensus 7.2% 40.2% 28.6% 18.8% 11.6% 30.6% 36.0% 19.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.4% 43.1% 28.9% 19.2% 10.8% 32.8% 32.0% 21.4% SHIPS-RII 14.3% 60.1% 42.4% 28.7% 21.9% 44.2% 63.0% 54.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 7.6% 52.8% 35.9% 19.1% 9.2% 33.2% 24.5% 17.5% Logistic Regression 6.9% 48.9% 31.4% 23.0% 11.9% 42.7% 42.2% 1.8% Bayesian 0.4% 11.7% 12.1% 4.8% 1.0% 5.0% 2.8% 1.1% DTOPS 7.0% 54.0% 42.0% 18.0% 10.0% 27.0% 29.0% 6.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Flossie at 06/29/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 150 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 16.9% 71.4% 39.4% 36.9% 25.4% 64.2% 36.5% 38.1% SHIPS Consensus 23.9% 73.6% 65.2% 51.6% 29.6% 63.7% 62.5% 22.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 22.1% 73.0% 58.7% 47.8% 28.5% 63.8% 55.9% 26.1% SHIPS-RII 23.9% 72.3% 58.2% 45.7% 38.0% 66.9% 76.4% 53.6% AI-RI and DTOPS 11.4% 59.2% 34.7% 27.4% 16.2% 50.1% 32.7% 26.5% Logistic Regression 23.2% 69.6% 54.9% 44.4% 27.7% 68.2% 71.4% 9.0% Bayesian 24.5% 79.0% 82.6% 64.5% 23.0% 56.1% 39.6% 3.9% DTOPS 6.0% 47.0% 30.0% 18.0% 7.0% 36.0% 29.0% 15.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Flossie at 06/29/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 154 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 15.7% 45.1% 35.3% 27.5% 11.0% 51.1% 27.5% 46.6% SHIPS Consensus 14.1% 64.2% 53.4% 38.1% 27.1% 60.2% 55.7% 29.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 14.5% 59.4% 48.8% 35.4% 23.1% 57.9% 48.6% 33.6% SHIPS-RII 15.2% 58.7% 45.4% 34.7% 25.2% 59.8% 67.6% 53.7% AI-RI and DTOPS 9.8% 34.5% 23.1% 16.7% 6.5% 36.5% 20.2% 25.8% Logistic Regression 18.5% 69.2% 50.8% 41.6% 34.3% 62.9% 63.5% 11.1% Bayesian 8.6% 64.7% 63.9% 38.0% 21.9% 57.8% 36.0% 23.4% DTOPS 4.0% 24.0% 11.0% 6.0% 2.0% 22.0% 13.0% 5.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Six at 06/29/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 153 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.8% 32.2% 13.3% 13.5% 4.9% 15.4% 10.0% 32.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 19.4% 11.3% 2.2% 1.0% 17.8% 30.5% 6.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 22.6% 11.8% 5.0% 1.9% 17.2% 25.3% 12.8% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 24.3% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0% 27.0% 35.4% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.4% 20.1% 8.1% 7.2% 2.4% 9.2% 9.5% 20.0% Logistic Regression 1.3% 23.7% 9.8% 5.3% 2.8% 24.7% 54.4% 12.0% Bayesian 0.5% 10.2% 5.7% 1.4% 0.2% 1.8% 1.6% 7.4% DTOPS 1.0% 8.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 9.0% 8.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------