Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Gil at 08/03/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 15 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Gil at 08/03/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 18 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Gil at 08/03/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 21 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Gil at 08/02/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 20 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Gil at 08/02/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 64 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Gil at 08/02/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 61 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.0% 7.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 5.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 13.8% 19.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 0.7% 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.2% 2.6% 3.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Gil at 08/02/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 72 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.7% 4.3% 2.0% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 14.5% 14.7% 13.3% 7.3% 5.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 12.5% 12.1% 10.5% 5.6% 4.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 29.2% 26.1% 20.8% 17.1% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 9.8% 6.1% 3.0% 2.8% 2.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 11.5% 17.9% 19.2% 4.6% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 2.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 13.0% 8.0% 4.0% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Gil at 08/01/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 79 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.9% 12.9% 3.3% 1.1% 1.7% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 7.7% 13.9% 10.0% 6.6% 5.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.2% 13.6% 8.3% 5.2% 4.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 15.1% 29.5% 22.0% 17.5% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 8.4% 12.4% 5.1% 4.0% 4.3% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 5.2% 11.9% 8.0% 2.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 2.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 11.0% 11.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Gil at 08/01/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 104 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.6% 3.2% 1.9% 1.1% 1.3% 2.8% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 10.6% 25.5% 18.4% 10.4% 6.6% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.3% 19.9% 14.2% 8.0% 5.2% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 15.2% 43.1% 34.6% 22.1% 14.3% 23.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 8.8% 11.1% 6.9% 6.0% 5.1% 3.9% 0.5% 0.0% Logistic Regression 11.3% 32.4% 20.1% 8.8% 5.3% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian 5.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 16.0% 19.0% 12.0% 11.0% 9.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Gil at 08/01/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 111 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.8% 13.2% 5.0% 1.6% 0.8% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 8.4% 19.5% 15.0% 10.4% 6.1% 8.4% 5.5% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.5% 17.9% 12.4% 8.2% 4.7% 6.7% 4.2% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 15.1% 41.2% 33.5% 26.5% 16.0% 24.0% 16.5% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 10.4% 19.1% 11.0% 7.8% 6.4% 3.9% 0.7% 0.1% Logistic Regression 4.2% 16.2% 10.5% 4.2% 2.2% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian 6.0% 1.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 20.0% 25.0% 17.0% 14.0% 12.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Gil at 08/01/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 118 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.2% 7.7% 1.8% 0.5% 0.4% 9.2% 2.9% 1.5% SHIPS Consensus 6.6% 15.6% 13.6% 9.0% 5.7% 9.7% 6.6% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.5% 13.6% 10.6% 6.9% 4.3% 9.5% 5.6% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 14.1% 35.0% 34.2% 24.0% 16.2% 27.6% 19.4% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 16.6% 28.8% 19.4% 13.2% 9.2% 16.6% 5.9% 0.7% Logistic Regression 1.9% 10.1% 4.8% 2.3% 0.9% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian 3.9% 1.6% 1.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 31.0% 50.0% 37.0% 26.0% 18.0% 24.0% 9.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Gil at 07/31/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 146 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.0% 36.4% 14.9% 10.8% 4.0% 30.3% 6.6% 2.3% SHIPS Consensus 10.0% 23.9% 19.0% 12.2% 7.7% 15.5% 12.6% 3.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.2% 27.0% 17.9% 11.8% 6.8% 19.2% 11.0% 3.1% SHIPS-RII 15.3% 43.6% 39.8% 28.5% 19.4% 39.6% 34.3% 9.9% AI-RI and DTOPS 9.5% 41.2% 24.4% 16.9% 10.5% 28.1% 8.3% 1.1% Logistic Regression 4.2% 22.3% 10.5% 6.1% 3.2% 6.7% 3.3% 0.4% Bayesian 10.5% 5.8% 6.7% 2.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS 16.0% 46.0% 34.0% 23.0% 17.0% 26.0% 10.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Gil at 07/31/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 148 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.1% 30.9% 10.9% 7.4% 2.6% 17.8% 11.1% 3.3% SHIPS Consensus 18.6% 32.8% 25.4% 18.4% 11.9% 23.8% 23.7% 4.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 15.2% 32.3% 21.7% 15.6% 9.6% 22.2% 20.5% 4.0% SHIPS-RII 24.4% 53.0% 47.0% 39.7% 26.5% 56.5% 60.2% 11.6% AI-RI and DTOPS 11.0% 35.9% 20.4% 15.7% 6.8% 24.4% 20.5% 1.6% Logistic Regression 8.5% 34.4% 18.2% 11.6% 8.2% 13.3% 10.5% 1.1% Bayesian 23.0% 11.0% 11.0% 3.9% 1.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% DTOPS 17.0% 41.0% 30.0% 24.0% 11.0% 31.0% 30.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Gil at 07/31/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 147 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 16.8% 50.1% 16.2% 11.7% 5.2% 28.3% 8.9% 9.7% SHIPS Consensus 13.6% 41.4% 28.5% 17.1% 9.3% 24.1% 26.5% 5.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 14.3% 43.5% 25.4% 15.7% 8.2% 25.1% 22.1% 6.4% SHIPS-RII 13.0% 43.3% 32.5% 20.3% 14.4% 33.0% 57.2% 13.7% AI-RI and DTOPS 12.4% 43.5% 21.1% 11.8% 5.6% 31.6% 27.4% 7.3% Logistic Regression 12.4% 55.0% 32.2% 22.7% 11.4% 31.6% 19.9% 2.4% Bayesian 15.4% 25.8% 20.7% 8.2% 2.1% 7.7% 2.4% 0.1% DTOPS 8.0% 37.0% 26.0% 12.0% 6.0% 35.0% 46.0% 5.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------