Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Nine intensity image current Nine RI diff image

 


Ivo at 08/11/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ivo at 08/11/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ivo at 08/11/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ivo at 08/10/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 32 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ivo at 08/10/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 60 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ivo at 08/10/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 72 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ivo at 08/10/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 81 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 4.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ivo at 08/09/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 84 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.0% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ivo at 08/09/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 89 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.9% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ivo at 08/09/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 105 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 6.1% 4.8% 3.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 4.8% 3.6% 2.7% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 8.9% 17.6% 14.1% 10.9% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ivo at 08/09/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 141 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.8% 5.6% 3.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 4.7% 8.5% 6.5% 5.2% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 7.7% 5.6% 4.1% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 13.7% 24.5% 19.2% 15.4% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.9% 3.8% 2.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ivo at 08/08/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 152 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 7.3% 7.5% 3.7% 2.1% 0.5% 2.7% 0.5% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 5.1% 10.0% 7.0% 5.5% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.6% 9.3% 6.1% 4.6% 3.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 14.1% 27.7% 20.0% 16.1% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 5.6% 5.7% 2.8% 2.0% 1.2% 1.3% 0.2% 0.2% Logistic Regression 1.3% 2.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ivo at 08/08/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 165 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 7.3% 11.2% 3.1% 3.7% 0.8% 3.9% 0.6% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 4.1% 8.2% 6.4% 5.0% 3.9% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.9% 8.9% 5.6% 4.7% 3.1% 6.0% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 11.4% 22.7% 18.4% 14.9% 11.4% 20.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 5.1% 10.1% 4.0% 3.8% 2.4% 3.4% 0.8% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.9% 1.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 9.0% 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


 


 


Ivo at 08/08/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 171 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.6% 7.9% 2.6% 1.5% 0.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 4.1% 8.5% 6.7% 5.3% 4.0% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.0% 8.3% 5.6% 4.3% 3.1% 5.6% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 11.8% 24.0% 19.3% 15.7% 11.9% 21.3% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.3% 7.4% 2.8% 2.7% 2.1% 1.1% 0.7% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.6% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 7.0% 3.0% 4.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ivo at 08/08/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 159 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.8% 26.9% 5.5% 2.8% 1.1% 3.9% 1.6% 2.2% SHIPS Consensus 7.0% 16.1% 12.4% 8.2% 4.9% 9.3% 6.5% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.9% 18.7% 10.7% 6.8% 3.9% 7.9% 5.2% 0.5% SHIPS-RII 19.2% 43.4% 35.0% 23.7% 14.2% 27.4% 19.4% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 9.4% 19.4% 6.2% 5.4% 4.5% 3.9% 1.8% 1.1% Logistic Regression 1.7% 4.4% 2.2% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 12.0% 12.0% 7.0% 8.0% 8.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ivo at 08/07/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 161 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 16.8% 36.5% 20.2% 19.6% 10.6% 10.6% 9.8% 2.4% SHIPS Consensus 15.1% 28.1% 19.9% 14.4% 7.9% 15.0% 8.5% 3.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 15.5% 30.2% 19.9% 15.7% 8.5% 13.9% 8.7% 3.3% SHIPS-RII 32.3% 57.4% 44.7% 36.4% 20.1% 40.5% 23.5% 10.2%
AI-RI and DTOPS 18.4% 27.7% 16.1% 18.3% 10.8% 7.3% 5.9% 1.2% Logistic Regression 11.1% 19.3% 11.3% 5.5% 3.2% 4.0% 1.8% 0.6%
Bayesian 2.0% 7.6% 3.7% 1.3% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 20.0% 19.0% 12.0% 17.0% 11.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ivo at 08/07/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 163 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 11.1% 51.0% 20.7% 13.9% 7.0% 15.7% 13.6% 4.9% SHIPS Consensus 7.5% 26.3% 16.2% 9.2% 5.7% 12.3% 11.9% 4.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.4% 32.5% 17.3% 10.3% 6.0% 13.1% 12.3% 4.9% SHIPS-RII 13.8% 45.2% 30.4% 19.2% 13.8% 27.0% 31.8% 13.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 8.0% 32.5% 14.8% 9.4% 5.5% 10.8% 8.8% 2.4% Logistic Regression 7.8% 23.2% 13.8% 6.8% 3.1% 8.3% 3.5% 1.0%
Bayesian 1.0% 10.6% 4.4% 1.5% 0.2% 1.6% 0.4% 0.0%
DTOPS 5.0% 14.0% 9.0% 5.0% 4.0% 6.0% 4.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ivo at 08/07/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 166 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.4% 26.5% 5.5% 2.5% 1.8% 4.8% 11.3% 6.7% SHIPS Consensus 4.5% 13.5% 8.6% 6.0% 4.2% 9.7% 10.4% 5.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.5% 16.7% 7.8% 5.1% 3.6% 8.4% 10.6% 5.5% SHIPS-RII 10.7% 24.2% 18.8% 15.2% 11.6% 23.4% 24.0% 13.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.2% 21.2% 7.2% 3.2% 2.4% 7.9% 10.1% 3.3% Logistic Regression 2.5% 12.3% 5.9% 2.6% 0.9% 5.3% 7.0% 1.6%
Bayesian 0.4% 4.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 15.0% 9.0% 4.0% 3.0% 11.0% 6.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ivo at 08/07/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 151 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 11.3% 47.3% 15.3% 11.5% 7.0% 20.0% 24.1% 12.3% SHIPS Consensus 6.5% 27.4% 16.5% 10.5% 5.7% 16.7% 16.2% 7.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.7% 32.3% 16.2% 10.7% 5.9% 17.5% 18.2% 8.3% SHIPS-RII 12.5% 34.5% 20.8% 16.8% 12.7% 25.8% 27.6% 16.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.6% 34.6% 14.1% 9.2% 5.5% 13.5% 18.0% 6.6% Logistic Regression 6.2% 29.3% 16.3% 9.2% 3.6% 21.0% 19.9% 4.1%
Bayesian 0.8% 18.3% 12.5% 5.5% 0.6% 3.4% 1.2% 0.1%
DTOPS 4.0% 22.0% 13.0% 7.0% 4.0% 7.0% 12.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Ivo at 08/06/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 161 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 13.3% 55.0% 25.1% 17.2% 5.1% 22.8% 23.1% 27.3% SHIPS Consensus 14.1% 56.5% 41.6% 26.9% 10.5% 31.7% 29.5% 10.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 13.9% 56.0% 37.4% 24.4% 9.2% 29.4% 27.9% 14.8% SHIPS-RII 14.5% 46.7% 32.8% 20.7% 13.9% 32.5% 46.7% 24.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 10.6% 37.5% 19.0% 12.1% 4.0% 19.4% 24.0% 15.6% Logistic Regression 18.2% 54.2% 37.6% 24.3% 10.1% 43.5% 35.6% 7.4%
Bayesian 9.7% 68.4% 54.4% 35.5% 7.7% 19.1% 6.2% 0.2%
DTOPS 8.0% 20.0% 13.0% 7.0% 3.0% 16.0% 25.0% 4.0%
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