Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Eleven intensity image current Eleven RI diff image

 


Kiko at 09/10/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 103 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kiko at 09/10/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 101 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kiko at 09/10/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 104 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kiko at 09/09/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 92 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kiko at 09/09/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 90 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kiko at 09/09/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 82 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kiko at 09/09/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 75 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kiko at 09/08/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 71 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kiko at 09/08/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 73 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kiko at 09/08/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 67 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.6% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kiko at 09/08/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 68 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kiko at 09/07/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 78 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kiko at 09/07/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 65 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kiko at 09/07/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 66 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kiko at 09/07/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 76 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kiko at 09/06/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 82 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kiko at 09/06/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 91 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kiko at 09/06/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 94 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kiko at 09/06/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 98 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.8% 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kiko at 09/05/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 103 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 4.3% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 3.4% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.2% 12.5% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kiko at 09/05/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 108 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.7% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 2.9% 2.7% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 2.4% 2.1% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.5% 8.0% 7.7% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.3% 1.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kiko at 09/05/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 106 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.3% 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 3.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 2.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kiko at 09/05/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 105 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.9% 1.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kiko at 09/04/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 98 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.4% 2.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kiko at 09/04/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 102 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kiko at 09/04/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 102 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.1% 2.6% 1.5% 0.8% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kiko at 09/04/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 109 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 7.0% 2.5% 1.7% 0.9% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kiko at 09/03/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 106 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.6% 5.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.8% 4.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 13.6% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 14.7% 5.8% 1.7% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.7% 2.2% 1.5% 0.6% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 23.0% 10.0% 3.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kiko at 09/03/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 111 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.3% 3.4% 0.8% 0.9% 0.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 5.3% 4.5% 3.5% 3.0% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.1% 4.8% 3.5% 2.8% 2.3% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 10.6% 14.3% 12.8% 10.4% 8.5% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 10.1% 7.2% 2.4% 1.9% 2.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 15.0% 11.0% 4.0% 3.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kiko at 09/03/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 106 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.9% 5.8% 3.4% 2.3% 0.8% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 5.1% 7.3% 5.6% 4.3% 3.7% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.0% 6.9% 5.0% 3.8% 2.9% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 13.2% 17.0% 14.9% 12.3% 9.8% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 8.9% 18.4% 8.2% 5.6% 5.9% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.8% 4.0% 2.0% 0.7% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 13.0% 31.0% 13.0% 9.0% 11.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kiko at 09/03/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 110 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 10.6% 3.8% 1.8% 1.1% 0.5% 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 6.5% 8.4% 6.4% 4.9% 4.2% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.5% 7.2% 5.3% 3.9% 3.3% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 14.5% 18.1% 16.1% 13.4% 10.6% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 12.8% 3.4% 1.9% 1.0% 1.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.6% 5.7% 3.2% 1.3% 2.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian 1.3% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 15.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


 


Kiko at 09/02/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 109 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.6% 4.1% 2.8% 1.2% 1.0% 4.8% 0.4% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 6.5% 9.2% 7.0% 5.4% 4.6% 5.8% 3.9% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.5% 7.7% 5.7% 4.2% 3.5% 5.5% 3.1% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 15.5% 19.2% 17.3% 14.7% 11.6% 17.0% 11.7% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 13.8% 11.0% 5.9% 6.1% 8.0% 2.4% 0.2% 0.1% Logistic Regression 3.0% 6.5% 3.7% 1.4% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian 1.1% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 29.0% 17.0% 8.0% 9.0% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kiko at 09/02/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 114 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 13.4% 11.0% 3.5% 1.6% 0.6% 4.1% 0.5% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 16.1% 13.1% 9.5% 7.2% 6.3% 7.2% 5.1% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 15.4% 12.5% 7.9% 5.7% 4.8% 6.4% 3.9% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 40.8% 24.6% 21.2% 17.8% 13.9% 20.7% 14.8% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 31.7% 27.5% 16.2% 14.3% 15.3% 5.0% 0.2% 0.1% Logistic Regression 5.9% 12.4% 7.0% 3.6% 4.6% 1.0% 0.5% 0.4%
Bayesian 1.7% 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 50.0% 44.0% 29.0% 27.0% 30.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kiko at 09/02/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 110 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.4% 7.4% 3.2% 1.7% 2.6% 5.8% 1.4% 1.3% SHIPS Consensus 11.7% 14.6% 12.2% 8.7% 7.3% 7.8% 5.8% 3.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.1% 12.6% 9.4% 6.5% 5.6% 7.3% 4.7% 2.7% SHIPS-RII 31.9% 33.1% 31.6% 23.8% 16.5% 22.8% 16.9% 8.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 11.2% 18.2% 11.6% 10.3% 10.8% 18.9% 6.7% 2.1% Logistic Regression 2.9% 9.6% 4.8% 2.2% 5.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4%
Bayesian 0.3% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 31.0% 33.0% 23.0% 22.0% 23.0% 25.0% 7.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kiko at 09/02/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 114 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.0% 11.6% 7.5% 4.9% 3.0% 12.5% 2.3% 3.1% SHIPS Consensus 7.5% 18.0% 12.9% 8.4% 6.3% 8.9% 6.8% 4.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.1% 16.4% 11.5% 7.5% 5.4% 9.8% 5.6% 3.8% SHIPS-RII 17.6% 39.7% 33.3% 22.7% 14.4% 25.9% 19.7% 10.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 19.0% 29.3% 22.2% 16.9% 13.5% 22.7% 6.1% 2.5% Logistic Regression 4.1% 12.2% 5.4% 2.4% 4.2% 0.8% 0.6% 1.3%
Bayesian 0.7% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 32.0% 47.0% 37.0% 29.0% 24.0% 33.0% 10.0% 2.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kiko at 09/01/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 115 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.3% 24.0% 12.0% 5.9% 2.6% 11.1% 3.1% 3.4% SHIPS Consensus 15.8% 24.7% 17.4% 12.1% 8.9% 10.7% 7.2% 4.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 13.9% 24.5% 16.0% 10.5% 7.3% 10.7% 6.2% 4.1% SHIPS-RII 32.1% 48.8% 41.4% 30.7% 18.2% 30.7% 21.0% 10.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 17.1% 28.5% 18.5% 15.4% 8.8% 21.5% 11.0% 5.7% Logistic Regression 11.6% 20.8% 10.5% 5.4% 8.1% 1.2% 0.6% 2.2%
Bayesian 3.7% 4.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 26.0% 33.0% 25.0% 25.0% 15.0% 32.0% 19.0% 8.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kiko at 09/01/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 138 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.1% 29.5% 12.3% 6.7% 2.8% 11.7% 6.5% 3.8% SHIPS Consensus 11.3% 23.7% 13.8% 8.6% 7.7% 8.9% 8.4% 4.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.9% 25.1% 13.4% 8.1% 6.4% 9.6% 7.9% 4.5% SHIPS-RII 14.0% 35.5% 24.9% 17.5% 13.5% 25.3% 24.7% 12.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 11.5% 40.7% 24.1% 18.3% 13.4% 17.3% 20.2% 27.9% Logistic Regression 15.7% 30.4% 15.8% 8.1% 9.2% 1.3% 0.4% 1.8%
Bayesian 4.1% 5.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 17.0% 52.0% 36.0% 30.0% 24.0% 23.0% 34.0% 52.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kiko at 09/01/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 110 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.1% 22.8% 8.5% 4.8% 3.2% 9.6% 4.5% 7.7% SHIPS Consensus 7.9% 21.4% 15.5% 9.2% 7.7% 10.3% 11.9% 5.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.6% 21.7% 13.7% 8.1% 6.5% 10.1% 10.0% 5.9% SHIPS-RII 14.0% 37.4% 29.8% 19.3% 14.2% 28.7% 34.8% 13.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.5% 25.4% 13.7% 7.9% 6.1% 13.8% 16.2% 38.8% Logistic Regression 8.6% 25.3% 16.4% 8.2% 8.8% 2.2% 0.9% 2.3%
Bayesian 1.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 6.0% 28.0% 19.0% 11.0% 9.0% 18.0% 28.0% 70.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kiko at 09/01/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 99 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 11.4% 22.0% 11.4% 6.6% 4.8% 14.5% 6.6% 9.7% SHIPS Consensus 8.5% 22.1% 15.8% 9.3% 8.0% 10.3% 16.2% 5.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.2% 22.0% 14.7% 8.6% 7.2% 11.3% 13.8% 6.8% SHIPS-RII 14.2% 37.2% 29.5% 19.0% 14.3% 28.8% 47.2% 15.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 8.2% 23.5% 14.2% 7.8% 5.4% 21.2% 18.3% 42.3% Logistic Regression 10.1% 27.2% 17.5% 8.7% 9.8% 2.1% 1.4% 2.2%
Bayesian 1.3% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 5.0% 25.0% 17.0% 9.0% 6.0% 28.0% 30.0% 75.0%
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Kiko at 08/31/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 104 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.3% 24.4% 10.0% 4.5% 1.8% 15.9% 8.2% 16.6% SHIPS Consensus 6.3% 17.6% 12.1% 7.8% 6.2% 9.8% 15.6% 8.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.0% 19.3% 11.6% 6.9% 5.1% 11.3% 13.7% 10.3% SHIPS-RII 13.0% 29.8% 22.2% 17.2% 13.7% 27.1% 44.9% 21.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.6% 18.7% 9.0% 4.2% 2.4% 16.9% 20.6% 50.3% Logistic Regression 4.9% 21.2% 13.7% 6.1% 5.0% 2.2% 1.8% 3.6%
Bayesian 1.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 13.0% 8.0% 4.0% 3.0% 18.0% 33.0% 84.0%
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Kiko at 08/31/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.3% 8.3% 5.6% 3.6% 1.1% 15.1% 6.4% 18.9% SHIPS Consensus 6.3% 15.0% 11.5% 7.9% 6.5% 9.6% 10.8% 8.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.8% 12.2% 8.9% 5.9% 1.4% 10.2% 7.9% 10.8% SHIPS-RII 12.6% 23.1% 20.1% 16.6% 13.1% 25.2% 31.0% 22.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.1% 9.6% 5.8% 2.8% 1.0% 12.5% 15.2% 53.4% Logistic Regression 5.5% 21.2% 14.5% 7.0% 6.4% 3.7% 1.3% 2.9%
Bayesian 0.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 6.0% 17.0% 11.0% 6.0% 4.0% 13.0% 25.0% 89.0%
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Eleven at 08/31/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.8% 9.2% 4.4% 3.7% 0.7% 8.4% 4.9% 20.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.0% 11.7% 8.5% 6.0% 0.7% 8.6% 8.4% 8.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 11.5% 7.8% 5.5% 0.7% 8.7% 7.7% 11.2% SHIPS-RII 10.6% 20.5% 17.9% 14.7% 0.0% 22.8% 23.4% 20.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.9% 11.6% 6.2% 3.3% 1.3% 7.7% 6.9% 41.0% Logistic Regression 4.1% 13.8% 7.4% 3.3% 2.1% 3.1% 1.9% 4.1%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 15.0% 9.0% 3.0% 2.0% 7.0% 10.0% 61.0%
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