Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Lorena at 09/05/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 25 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 2.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 1.8% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 4.0% 7.4% 4.0% 1.6% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lorena at 09/05/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 23 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 1.7% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 1.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 1.6% 5.1% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lorena at 09/04/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 34 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 1.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 3.3% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lorena at 09/04/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 58 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 2.4% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 1.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.7% 7.3% 2.5% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lorena at 09/04/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 75 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 3.8% 3.1% 2.3% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 2.8% 2.3% 1.7% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 9.5% 11.3% 9.2% 7.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lorena at 09/03/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 139 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.3% 1.6% 2.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 6.9% 7.3% 5.6% 4.5% 3.3% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.2% 5.8% 4.7% 3.6% 2.5% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 18.9% 21.0% 16.4% 13.3% 9.8% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 4.6% 1.3% 1.6% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lorena at 09/03/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 137 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.2% 4.8% 8.3% 4.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 10.5% 10.1% 7.1% 5.7% 4.3% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.2% 8.7% 7.4% 5.4% 3.3% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 27.7% 27.2% 20.2% 16.7% 12.6% 17.9% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 12.1% 7.4% 6.6% 4.7% 3.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.6% 2.8% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 19.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lorena at 09/03/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 158 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 21.0% 34.2% 23.1% 12.7% 3.4% 3.4% 0.2% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 20.7% 25.3% 19.1% 16.3% 9.5% 8.8% 5.6% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 20.7% 27.5% 20.1% 15.4% 8.0% 7.4% 4.2% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 45.9% 55.9% 47.3% 42.1% 26.6% 24.6% 16.6% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 23.5% 35.1% 23.5% 16.8% 11.7% 3.2% 0.6% 0.0% Logistic Regression 14.1% 18.5% 9.5% 6.6% 2.0% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian 2.0% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 26.0% 36.0% 24.0% 21.0% 20.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lorena at 09/03/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 159 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 21.3% 50.0% 33.2% 22.4% 6.3% 18.8% 1.9% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 34.4% 47.2% 38.9% 35.9% 20.4% 27.9% 8.2% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 31.1% 47.9% 37.4% 32.5% 16.8% 25.5% 6.6% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 61.0% 82.2% 75.1% 72.0% 47.3% 62.0% 23.3% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 36.6% 47.0% 33.6% 26.7% 13.6% 16.4% 4.4% 0.1% Logistic Regression 35.5% 52.9% 37.7% 34.1% 13.3% 21.0% 1.3% 0.0% Bayesian 6.7% 6.6% 3.9% 1.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 52.0% 44.0% 34.0% 31.0% 21.0% 14.0% 7.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lorena at 09/02/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 153 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 22.4% 58.6% 34.4% 25.5% 8.4% 39.6% 10.7% 1.0% SHIPS Consensus 27.7% 49.0% 37.1% 29.1% 13.9% 28.7% 17.8% 3.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 26.4% 51.4% 36.4% 28.2% 12.5% 31.4% 16.0% 2.8% SHIPS-RII 35.4% 63.5% 53.3% 43.1% 24.4% 55.8% 50.9% 10.3% AI-RI and DTOPS 19.2% 47.8% 29.7% 23.2% 10.7% 34.3% 13.8% 0.5% Logistic Regression 33.8% 62.1% 45.9% 38.3% 15.2% 28.1% 2.5% 0.1% Bayesian 14.0% 21.4% 12.2% 5.9% 2.1% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS 16.0% 37.0% 25.0% 21.0% 13.0% 29.0% 17.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lorena at 09/02/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 157 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.1% 49.4% 22.2% 19.5% 4.3% 27.4% 12.9% 1.2% SHIPS Consensus 10.6% 34.3% 21.2% 13.8% 8.9% 19.7% 10.7% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 10.2% 38.1% 21.4% 15.2% 7.8% 21.6% 11.2% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 13.8% 42.2% 30.7% 19.6% 13.9% 28.7% 27.5% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 8.0% 46.7% 27.1% 15.2% 5.6% 26.2% 18.9% 1.6% Logistic Regression 16.2% 49.4% 28.5% 20.4% 12.3% 28.5% 4.5% 0.2% Bayesian 1.9% 11.4% 4.5% 1.5% 0.7% 2.0% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS 7.0% 44.0% 32.0% 11.0% 7.0% 25.0% 25.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twelve at 09/02/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 163 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.3% 36.4% 17.1% 11.4% 4.0% 12.4% 5.3% 14.5% SHIPS Consensus 6.0% 25.8% 16.0% 10.0% 2.1% 19.2% 15.9% 5.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.1% 28.4% 16.3% 10.3% 2.5% 17.4% 13.2% 7.7% SHIPS-RII 12.9% 42.5% 30.5% 19.1% 0.0% 29.7% 37.8% 16.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.1% 33.7% 16.5% 9.2% 4.0% 14.2% 12.6% 10.2% Logistic Regression 5.1% 32.7% 16.9% 10.6% 6.1% 27.5% 9.8% 0.4% Bayesian 0.1% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 31.0% 16.0% 7.0% 4.0% 16.0% 20.0% 6.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twelve at 09/02/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 157 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 16.7% 57.2% 33.4% 25.0% 14.5% 42.9% 24.9% 36.2% SHIPS Consensus 12.3% 49.0% 32.8% 22.5% 9.5% 37.4% 36.5% 17.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 13.4% 51.0% 33.0% 23.1% 10.7% 38.7% 33.6% 21.8% SHIPS-RII 14.9% 58.2% 42.6% 29.4% 0.0% 45.2% 62.9% 47.9% AI-RI and DTOPS 9.3% 37.1% 21.7% 14.0% 8.2% 25.9% 16.4% 24.1% Logistic Regression 20.4% 63.2% 41.9% 31.7% 27.4% 57.5% 43.6% 2.7% Bayesian 1.7% 25.6% 14.1% 6.4% 1.1% 9.5% 3.0% 0.4% DTOPS 2.0% 17.0% 10.0% 3.0% 2.0% 9.0% 8.0% 12.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------