Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Thirteen intensity image current Thirteen RI diff image

 


Mario at 09/17/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mario at 09/16/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 31 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mario at 09/16/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 47 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 3.3% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mario at 09/16/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 67 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.6% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 6.5% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mario at 09/16/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 99 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 4.9% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 3.7% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 9.8% 14.6% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mario at 09/15/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 93 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.6% 2.8% 2.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 6.3% 8.6% 6.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.1% 7.1% 5.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 14.9% 23.1% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.8% 1.9% 1.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.7% 2.6% 2.9% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mario at 09/15/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 127 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 12.9% 15.9% 8.8% 6.0% 1.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 7.9% 10.4% 7.9% 5.1% 3.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.1% 11.7% 8.1% 5.3% 3.2% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 14.6% 24.4% 18.2% 14.6% 10.7% 17.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 8.4% 8.9% 4.9% 3.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 8.1% 6.5% 5.5% 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mario at 09/15/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 162 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 5.8% 1.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.8% 8.5% 6.7% 4.7% 3.5% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 7.8% 5.4% 3.6% 2.7% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 12.2% 21.3% 16.8% 13.7% 10.2% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 3.4% 1.3% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.0% 4.2% 3.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mario at 09/15/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 165 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.8% 11.0% 6.4% 2.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 6.2% 13.3% 8.0% 5.5% 4.0% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.1% 12.7% 7.6% 4.6% 3.1% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 14.3% 32.6% 19.5% 15.6% 11.6% 18.9% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.4% 7.0% 3.7% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.1% 7.1% 4.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mario at 09/14/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 170 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 16.8% 43.2% 26.5% 16.7% 6.5% 14.7% 3.7% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 10.1% 17.6% 11.3% 6.9% 4.8% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 11.7% 23.9% 15.0% 9.3% 5.2% 9.3% 0.9% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 14.9% 33.8% 20.9% 17.1% 12.8% 21.8% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 9.9% 23.6% 14.2% 9.3% 4.2% 7.3% 1.8% 0.0% Logistic Regression 13.4% 18.3% 12.7% 3.7% 1.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mario at 09/14/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 174 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.6% 28.2% 8.0% 5.4% 2.2% 6.3% 1.6% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 5.8% 14.1% 9.7% 6.5% 4.3% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.5% 18.2% 9.4% 6.0% 0.8% 7.0% 0.4% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 12.5% 25.9% 19.8% 16.1% 12.2% 21.5% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.8% 15.1% 4.5% 3.2% 1.1% 3.6% 1.3% 0.1% Logistic Regression 4.6% 16.2% 9.2% 3.3% 0.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mario at 09/14/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 168 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.1% 21.7% 7.6% 4.8% 0.7% 5.1% 0.3% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 14.8% 9.1% 6.4% 0.3% 8.2% 5.7% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 16.5% 8.7% 5.9% 0.4% 7.4% 4.3% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 9.6% 21.7% 17.6% 14.1% 0.0% 20.6% 16.9% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 12.8% 4.8% 2.9% 0.8% 3.0% 0.6% 0.1% Logistic Regression 3.2% 22.4% 9.8% 5.0% 1.0% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mario at 09/14/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 165 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.1% 25.4% 5.8% 4.0% 0.8% 7.0% 3.0% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 10.4% 7.2% 5.3% 0.1% 6.8% 5.3% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.4% 14.1% 6.8% 4.9% 0.2% 6.8% 4.7% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 10.3% 22.5% 17.8% 14.3% 0.0% 19.6% 16.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.0% 14.2% 3.4% 2.5% 0.9% 4.0% 2.5% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.4% 8.5% 3.8% 1.5% 0.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mario at 09/13/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 164 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.7% 36.3% 13.0% 5.9% 0.7% 9.5% 8.3% 1.4% SHIPS Consensus 4.1% 11.4% 7.5% 5.6% 0.2% 7.5% 6.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.5% 17.6% 8.8% 5.6% 0.3% 8.0% 6.5% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 10.4% 22.3% 18.0% 14.6% 0.0% 21.0% 17.7% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 1.9% 11.4% 4.4% 2.1% 0.6% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mario at 09/13/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 156 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.2% 27.6% 5.9% 6.4% 5.1% 8.0% 21.3% 27.1% SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 8.6% 6.3% 5.0% 3.9% 8.1% 9.5% 16.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.4% 13.3% 6.1% 5.3% 4.1% 8.1% 12.4% 19.2% SHIPS-RII 10.4% 22.9% 18.1% 14.7% 11.4% 22.9% 25.4% 48.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.1% 15.3% 3.9% 3.7% 3.0% 4.5% 12.1% 14.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 2.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 1.5% 3.0% 1.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mario at 09/12/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 162 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.3% 2.9% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.9% 9.5% 12.8% SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 7.1% 5.6% 4.5% 3.4% 7.2% 7.7% 15.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 6.0% 4.3% 3.5% 2.6% 5.6% 8.1% 15.1% SHIPS-RII 10.3% 19.9% 16.4% 13.4% 10.3% 21.1% 20.3% 42.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 2.4% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 5.2% 6.9% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 2.6% 2.6%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 2.4%
DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Mario at 09/12/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 167 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 4.3% 0.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.7% 3.0% 14.1% SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 7.7% 5.3% 4.2% 3.2% 6.8% 7.0% 8.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 6.8% 4.1% 3.3% 2.4% 5.2% 6.0% 10.0% SHIPS-RII 9.9% 18.4% 15.1% 12.2% 9.2% 19.1% 18.3% 22.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 4.1% 1.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.8% 3.5% 7.5% Logistic Regression 0.5% 3.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 1.2% 2.7% 2.9%
Bayesian 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8%
DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Thirteen at 09/12/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 170 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.9% 16.2% 3.1% 2.8% 2.2% 2.2% 8.8% 5.3% SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 8.1% 5.2% 3.9% 0.1% 6.2% 6.6% 6.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 10.0% 4.6% 3.6% 0.6% 5.2% 7.1% 6.2% SHIPS-RII 8.8% 17.8% 14.0% 11.0% 0.0% 16.9% 16.6% 13.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.9% 9.6% 2.0% 1.9% 1.6% 1.6% 5.4% 2.6% Logistic Regression 0.8% 5.1% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3% 1.7% 3.1% 4.5%
Bayesian 0.0% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.5%
DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Thirteen at 09/12/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 168 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.0% 30.1% 3.7% 5.3% 1.7% 4.2% 18.5% 17.4% SHIPS Consensus 4.7% 14.8% 8.3% 5.9% 0.8% 10.2% 11.1% 12.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.5% 18.6% 7.1% 5.7% 1.0% 8.7% 12.9% 13.4% SHIPS-RII 11.1% 21.8% 17.1% 13.7% 0.0% 20.4% 18.9% 17.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.5% 17.5% 2.8% 3.1% 1.3% 2.6% 11.2% 9.2% Logistic Regression 3.0% 17.7% 7.2% 3.9% 2.0% 8.0% 11.3% 13.3%
Bayesian 0.1% 4.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 2.4% 3.0% 5.5%
DTOPS 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Thirteen at 09/11/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 172 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.6% 14.9% 4.1% 3.3% 0.8% 3.6% 8.0% 12.3% SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 12.1% 7.0% 5.1% 0.3% 8.5% 9.1% 11.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus SHIPS-RII 10.2% 19.8% 16.3% 13.2% 0.0% 20.1% 18.7% 16.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS Logistic Regression 1.5% 9.3% 3.7% 1.8% 0.7% 4.5% 7.0% 9.3%
Bayesian 0.1% 7.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 1.7% 7.2%
DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% 1.0%
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