Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Octave at 10/09/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 140 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A DTOPS 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Octave at 10/09/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 94 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A DTOPS 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Octave at 10/09/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 96 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.1% 1.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.7% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Octave at 10/08/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 111 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.9% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Octave at 10/08/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 102 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Octave at 10/08/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 102 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Octave at 10/08/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 87 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Octave at 10/07/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 84 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Octave at 10/07/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 85 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 6.0% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Octave at 10/07/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 86 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 3.8% 2.2% 1.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 2.9% 1.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 5.9% 11.4% 6.4% 5.8% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Octave at 10/07/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 96 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 2.8% 1.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 2.1% 1.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 3.3% 8.4% 4.7% 4.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Octave at 10/06/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 99 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 2.9% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 2.2% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.8% 8.8% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Octave at 10/06/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 89 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 4.0% 3.5% 2.7% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 3.0% 2.6% 2.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.5% 11.9% 10.5% 8.0% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Octave at 10/06/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 82 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 3.8% 3.6% 2.9% 2.3% 3.3% 2.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 2.9% 2.7% 2.2% 1.7% 2.5% 1.5% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.8% 11.3% 10.8% 8.8% 6.8% 9.9% 6.3% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Octave at 10/06/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 88 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.5% 1.2% 1.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 4.2% 3.9% 3.1% 2.4% 3.8% 2.4% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 3.4% 3.2% 2.4% 1.8% 2.9% 1.7% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 12.3% 11.3% 9.1% 7.0% 11.3% 7.1% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.2% 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Octave at 10/05/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 88 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 1.8% 1.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 5.2% 4.8% 3.7% 2.8% 4.6% 3.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 4.3% 3.9% 2.8% 2.1% 3.5% 2.3% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 12.0% 13.9% 13.1% 10.9% 8.2% 13.7% 9.4% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.9% 1.5% 1.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Octave at 10/05/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 93 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.0% 3.6% 6.2% 5.2% 1.0% 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 6.9% 6.0% 4.1% 3.1% 4.8% 3.3% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 6.0% 6.1% 4.4% 2.5% 4.0% 2.5% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 15.4% 14.2% 11.9% 8.9% 14.4% 9.9% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 5.0% 2.3% 3.1% 3.1% 1.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.3% 4.4% 3.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Octave at 10/05/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 90 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.5% 3.8% 3.1% 2.5% 0.7% 4.0% 0.1% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 8.2% 6.3% 4.2% 3.1% 4.9% 0.0% 1.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 7.0% 5.4% 3.7% 2.5% 4.6% 0.0% 1.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 17.2% 14.5% 11.9% 9.1% 14.5% 0.0% 3.9% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.7% 2.9% 2.0% 1.7% 1.3% 2.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 3.7% 6.8% 4.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Octave at 10/05/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 93 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.2% 9.0% 6.2% 6.2% 2.2% 7.5% 0.4% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 3.9% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 1.6% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 5.1% 3.0% 1.9% 0.6% 1.9% 0.1% 1.2% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.7% AI-RI and DTOPS 4.6% 5.5% 3.6% 3.6% 1.6% 3.7% 0.2% 0.1% Logistic Regression 4.2% 11.0% 5.7% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Octave at 10/04/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 97 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 5.2% 5.6% 5.5% 1.1% 2.1% 0.7% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 4.6% 8.7% 4.0% 1.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 7.8% 4.4% 2.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 5.3% 7.1% 5.3% 5.7% 3.5% 1.5% 0.3% 0.2% Logistic Regression 13.1% 23.2% 11.9% 4.5% 1.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.5% Bayesian 0.6% 2.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 10.0% 9.0% 5.0% 6.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Octave at 10/04/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 103 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 15.5% 8.2% 12.3% 10.8% 6.1% 13.4% 1.1% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 10.6% 18.1% 8.9% 4.8% 2.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 11.8% 15.6% 9.7% 6.3% 3.0% 4.0% 0.3% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 11.2% 11.6% 10.6% 8.9% 5.5% 7.7% 1.0% 0.4% Logistic Regression 31.2% 52.2% 26.6% 14.2% 5.8% 2.6% 0.1% 0.5% Bayesian 0.6% 2.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 7.0% 15.0% 9.0% 7.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Octave at 10/04/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 89 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.5% 6.5% 2.8% 4.2% 2.4% 9.8% 0.7% 1.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 7.6% 2.8% 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 7.3% 2.7% 2.0% 0.8% 2.7% 0.1% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.7% 6.2% 3.4% 3.6% 2.2% 5.9% 1.3% 0.5% Logistic Regression 6.3% 22.5% 8.3% 3.9% 1.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.4% Bayesian 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Octave at 10/04/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 88 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.7% 10.1% 7.4% 3.2% 1.0% 4.8% 1.9% 1.3% SHIPS Consensus 6.2% 15.8% 7.3% 4.7% 1.5% 1.9% 0.2% 0.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.6% 14.3% 7.3% 4.3% 1.3% 2.5% 0.6% 0.6% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 6.3% 16.5% 11.2% 8.1% 6.0% 7.4% 2.4% 0.6% Logistic Regression 18.3% 45.0% 21.6% 14.0% 4.3% 5.5% 0.5% 1.4% Bayesian 0.4% 2.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 9.0% 23.0% 15.0% 13.0% 11.0% 10.0% 3.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Octave at 10/03/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 107 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.0% 10.7% 4.6% 4.5% 2.2% 11.6% 1.9% 1.8% SHIPS Consensus 6.0% 14.4% 8.7% 6.3% 4.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.9% 13.4% 7.6% 5.8% 3.6% 3.7% 0.6% 0.7% SHIPS-RII 11.2% 19.1% 16.4% 13.5% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 5.5% 9.8% 5.3% 5.2% 4.1% 7.3% 1.4% 0.9% Logistic Regression 6.3% 22.9% 9.6% 5.3% 1.7% 3.4% 0.6% 1.0% Bayesian 0.3% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 5.0% 9.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Octave at 10/03/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 127 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.3% 5.9% 2.9% 2.1% 0.7% 9.7% 3.4% 2.2% SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 7.5% 5.0% 3.7% 2.8% 5.4% 0.1% 0.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 7.1% 4.4% 3.3% 2.2% 6.4% 0.9% 0.7% SHIPS-RII 7.4% 14.7% 12.7% 10.1% 8.0% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.6% 4.4% 2.4% 2.0% 1.3% 5.8% 2.7% 1.1% Logistic Regression 1.1% 7.8% 2.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.9% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Octave at 10/03/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 106 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 1.8% 4.5% 2.7% SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 5.2% 4.1% 3.2% 2.5% 5.2% 0.1% 0.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 4.2% 3.2% 2.4% 1.9% 4.3% 1.2% 0.8% SHIPS-RII 6.6% 14.0% 12.1% 9.5% 7.5% 15.4% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 1.4% 2.7% 1.3% Logistic Regression 0.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Octave at 10/03/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 124 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.1% 2.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 2.5% 5.6% 3.7% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 4.5% 3.7% 2.9% 2.2% 4.9% 0.1% 0.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 3.9% 2.9% 2.1% 1.6% 4.2% 1.5% 1.0% SHIPS-RII 5.9% 12.7% 11.0% 8.6% 6.6% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 2.7% 1.4% 1.0% 1.0% 5.7% 6.8% 1.8% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 9.0% 8.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Octave at 10/02/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 110 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 1.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 3.4% 2.5% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 4.2% 3.5% 2.7% 2.1% 4.6% 0.1% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 3.6% 2.8% 2.0% 1.5% 3.6% 0.9% 0.7% SHIPS-RII 5.9% 11.8% 10.4% 8.1% 6.2% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 1.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 2.2% 1.2% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Octave at 10/02/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 128 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 3.9% 1.3% 1.1% 1.0% 1.5% 4.5% 6.8% SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 5.7% 4.4% 3.5% 2.6% 5.0% 0.2% 0.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 5.2% 3.6% 2.9% 2.2% 4.1% 1.3% 1.9% SHIPS-RII 8.8% 15.9% 13.1% 10.4% 7.8% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.4% 3.4% 1.6% 1.5% 2.0% 1.2% 2.7% 3.4% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 1.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Octave at 10/02/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 130 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.3% 5.5% 3.0% 1.0% 1.4% 1.3% 4.5% 7.6% SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 7.0% 4.9% 3.8% 2.9% 5.3% 4.6% 0.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 6.8% 4.5% 3.2% 2.6% 4.4% 4.7% 2.1% SHIPS-RII 10.0% 18.4% 14.3% 11.2% 8.5% 15.7% 13.5% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.6% 5.2% 3.0% 2.0% 2.7% 1.1% 2.7% 3.8% Logistic Regression 0.6% 2.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 1.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 3.0% 5.0% 3.0% 3.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Octave at 10/02/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 133 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.1% 2.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 1.1% 4.9% 2.5% SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 5.3% 4.3% 3.5% 2.7% 4.7% 4.2% 2.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 4.6% 3.3% 2.7% 2.1% 3.7% 4.4% 2.6% SHIPS-RII 8.7% 15.1% 12.9% 10.3% 8.0% 13.9% 12.4% 7.6% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.0% 4.3% 1.7% 2.2% 2.7% 7.0% 5.4% 1.7% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 6.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 13.0% 6.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Octave at 10/01/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 129 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.2% 8.8% 2.2% 1.1% 0.6% 2.0% 12.3% 8.8% SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 7.4% 5.4% 4.3% 3.4% 5.8% 5.0% 3.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 7.7% 4.6% 3.4% 2.6% 4.8% 6.8% 4.6% SHIPS-RII 10.8% 19.4% 15.8% 12.7% 9.7% 17.3% 14.6% 8.9% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.6% 6.9% 2.6% 2.5% 3.3% 2.0% 7.1% 5.4% Logistic Regression 0.4% 2.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 1.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 4.0% 5.0% 3.0% 4.0% 6.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Octave at 10/01/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 133 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.4% 8.8% 2.2% 1.5% 0.5% 2.5% 10.9% 11.7% SHIPS Consensus 5.7% 11.1% 6.9% 5.5% 4.7% 7.1% 7.7% 5.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.8% 10.5% 5.7% 4.5% 3.6% 5.9% 8.5% 6.8% SHIPS-RII 14.5% 24.8% 19.3% 15.7% 11.7% 20.2% 16.1% 9.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 15.2% 16.4% 8.1% 9.7% 10.7% 4.2% 7.4% 5.8% Logistic Regression 2.1% 6.7% 1.4% 1.0% 1.2% 1.0% 7.0% 6.6% Bayesian 0.5% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS 24.0% 24.0% 14.0% 18.0% 21.0% 6.0% 4.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Octave at 10/01/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 135 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.4% 5.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 2.8% 5.2% 9.4% SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 6.0% 5.0% 4.1% 3.1% 6.0% 5.6% 3.8% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 5.8% 4.0% 3.1% 2.3% 5.2% 5.5% 5.2% SHIPS-RII 10.6% 16.9% 14.9% 12.2% 9.3% 17.8% 14.5% 8.8% AI-RI and DTOPS 4.2% 6.3% 2.4% 3.2% 3.5% 1.9% 3.6% 4.7% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 2.4% 2.7% Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 5.0% 7.0% 4.0% 6.0% 7.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Octave at 10/01/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 136 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.3% 8.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 1.5% 4.2% 9.1% SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 5.7% 4.4% 3.4% 2.5% 5.4% 6.3% 5.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 6.4% 3.5% 2.6% 1.9% 4.4% 5.7% 6.0% SHIPS-RII 8.4% 15.5% 13.0% 10.1% 7.5% 15.9% 15.4% 10.5% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.6% 8.3% 2.1% 2.2% 2.1% 1.7% 4.1% 5.5% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 3.5% 4.5% Bayesian 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS 2.0% 8.0% 3.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------     Octave at 09/30/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 131 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.3% 2.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 4.1% 4.3% SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 5.6% 4.4% 3.5% 2.6% 5.4% 5.5% 4.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 4.7% 3.3% 2.6% 1.9% 4.2% 5.1% 4.3% SHIPS-RII 9.3% 15.1% 13.0% 10.3% 7.6% 15.9% 15.4% 10.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.6% 4.5% 1.6% 1.6% 2.0% 1.4% 3.5% 3.6% Logistic Regression 0.3% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 1.2% 3.2% Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 7.0% 3.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Octave at 09/30/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 131 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.9% 2.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 1.5% 5.3% 7.4% SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 5.0% 3.8% 2.9% 2.1% 4.7% 5.3% 4.9% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 4.4% 2.9% 2.2% 1.6% 3.9% 5.3% 5.5% SHIPS-RII 7.1% 12.6% 11.0% 8.5% 6.2% 13.9% 14.6% 10.6% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.4% 3.4% 1.3% 1.1% 1.0% 1.2% 4.1% 4.2% Logistic Regression 0.3% 2.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 1.3% 4.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fifteen at 09/30/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 109 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 1.7% 2.3% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 3.9% 3.1% 2.3% 0.0% 3.5% 0.1% 0.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 3.3% 2.4% 1.7% 0.0% 2.7% 0.5% 0.9% SHIPS-RII 5.9% 10.1% 9.1% 6.8% 0.0% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.4% 2.2% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 1.8% 2.1% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 1.5% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------