Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Priscilla at 10/10/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 0 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Priscilla at 10/10/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 0 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Priscilla at 10/10/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 0 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Priscilla at 10/10/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 11 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Priscilla at 10/09/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 22 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Priscilla at 10/09/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 40 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Priscilla at 10/09/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 63 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Priscilla at 10/09/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 70 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 6.9% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Priscilla at 10/08/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 88 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Priscilla at 10/08/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 111 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Priscilla at 10/08/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 118 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 3.6% 3.4% 2.7% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 2.6% 2.5% 2.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.7% 10.7% 10.2% 8.2% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Priscilla at 10/08/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 130 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 3.8% 3.6% 2.9% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 2.9% 2.6% 2.1% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 10.0% 11.3% 10.7% 8.7% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Priscilla at 10/07/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 128 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 4.9% 4.3% 3.5% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 3.9% 3.3% 2.6% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 12.6% 14.6% 12.9% 10.6% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Priscilla at 10/07/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 132 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.9% 2.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.1% 3.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.7% 5.1% 4.0% 3.1% 2.4% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 13.9% 17.4% 14.9% 12.3% 9.4% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 9.4% 2.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 11.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Priscilla at 10/07/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 129 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.9% 3.9% 3.2% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.2% 7.2% 5.3% 4.3% 3.4% 4.9% 3.6% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.3% 6.4% 4.8% 3.4% 2.7% 3.7% 2.6% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 13.6% 19.6% 15.6% 12.7% 9.9% 14.6% 10.7% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 11.9% 9.9% 5.6% 3.1% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.8% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 18.0% 16.0% 8.0% 5.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Priscilla at 10/07/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 155 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 14.1% 21.8% 8.5% 5.2% 4.7% 5.8% 0.2% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.2% 8.3% 5.5% 4.4% 3.5% 5.1% 3.9% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.4% 11.6% 6.2% 4.5% 3.7% 5.2% 2.9% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 12.8% 20.5% 15.8% 12.8% 10.0% 15.3% 11.7% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 17.5% 29.9% 18.2% 10.6% 7.3% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.7% 4.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 21.0% 38.0% 28.0% 16.0% 10.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Priscilla at 10/06/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 159 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.5% 9.8% 9.2% 1.5% 2.0% 2.0% 0.7% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.7% 8.0% 5.6% 4.5% 3.6% 5.0% 3.9% 1.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.6% 8.4% 6.4% 3.7% 3.1% 4.2% 3.0% 1.2% SHIPS-RII 13.0% 21.2% 16.3% 13.2% 10.4% 15.1% 11.7% 5.1% AI-RI and DTOPS 7.2% 30.4% 24.6% 10.7% 7.0% 4.0% 0.3% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.0% 2.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 10.0% 51.0% 40.0% 20.0% 12.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Priscilla at 10/06/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 161 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.0% 11.4% 16.2% 1.8% 1.0% 5.5% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 5.6% 9.0% 6.0% 4.9% 3.8% 5.3% 3.6% 1.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.4% 9.6% 8.5% 4.1% 3.1% 5.3% 2.7% 1.2% SHIPS-RII 14.2% 20.0% 16.7% 14.0% 10.8% 15.8% 10.8% 5.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 8.0% 20.7% 16.6% 8.9% 8.0% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.0% 5.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.6% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 11.0% 30.0% 17.0% 16.0% 15.0% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Priscilla at 10/06/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 161 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.6% 10.5% 8.3% 2.7% 3.9% 6.4% 4.8% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 10.7% 10.6% 7.4% 5.9% 4.6% 6.5% 4.5% 2.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.7% 10.6% 7.6% 5.1% 4.4% 6.5% 4.6% 1.7% SHIPS-RII 25.1% 23.9% 19.8% 16.7% 13.0% 19.4% 13.4% 6.4% AI-RI and DTOPS 12.8% 20.7% 15.1% 7.3% 7.4% 9.7% 3.4% 0.1% Logistic Regression 2.1% 4.2% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian 5.0% 3.8% 1.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 19.0% 31.0% 22.0% 12.0% 11.0% 13.0% 2.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Priscilla at 10/06/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 161 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.0% 28.9% 9.3% 7.4% 4.1% 11.5% 3.6% 1.8% SHIPS Consensus 15.1% 21.2% 14.0% 9.9% 7.1% 8.3% 6.0% 3.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 13.1% 23.1% 12.8% 9.3% 6.3% 9.1% 5.4% 2.8% SHIPS-RII 35.8% 47.9% 38.6% 27.7% 18.3% 23.7% 17.5% 9.4% AI-RI and DTOPS 16.0% 30.9% 16.6% 12.7% 10.0% 14.2% 5.3% 0.9% Logistic Regression 6.0% 11.9% 2.7% 1.8% 1.9% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian 3.6% 3.7% 0.9% 0.3% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 25.0% 33.0% 24.0% 18.0% 16.0% 17.0% 7.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Priscilla at 10/05/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 160 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 17.5% 47.1% 14.8% 14.2% 11.2% 26.7% 11.7% 3.0% SHIPS Consensus 9.2% 24.6% 15.8% 11.8% 8.2% 9.0% 6.6% 3.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 11.2% 30.2% 15.5% 12.3% 8.9% 13.4% 7.8% 3.3% SHIPS-RII 22.5% 56.6% 42.4% 32.3% 21.8% 25.3% 19.2% 10.4% AI-RI and DTOPS 14.7% 43.0% 21.4% 16.1% 12.1% 35.8% 14.8% 1.5% Logistic Regression 4.0% 14.7% 3.9% 2.7% 1.9% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian 1.1% 2.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 12.0% 39.0% 28.0% 18.0% 13.0% 45.0% 18.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Priscilla at 10/05/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 159 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.1% 48.3% 16.9% 6.3% 3.4% 13.4% 8.8% 3.5% SHIPS Consensus 9.2% 26.9% 19.0% 14.6% 9.2% 14.0% 9.3% 4.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.1% 32.2% 18.4% 12.5% 7.7% 13.8% 9.1% 3.9% SHIPS-RII 23.0% 63.3% 49.8% 39.8% 25.3% 39.6% 24.9% 12.1% AI-RI and DTOPS 19.0% 53.1% 29.9% 19.6% 14.2% 29.7% 16.9% 2.2% Logistic Regression 3.1% 11.5% 3.9% 2.7% 1.6% 2.2% 2.8% 0.3% Bayesian 1.5% 5.9% 3.3% 1.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS 29.0% 58.0% 43.0% 33.0% 25.0% 46.0% 25.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Priscilla at 10/05/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 157 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.5% 10.0% 4.0% 3.1% 1.7% 11.1% 7.2% 9.2% SHIPS Consensus 5.2% 12.6% 10.1% 7.1% 5.0% 9.8% 8.8% 4.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.0% 11.9% 8.5% 6.1% 4.1% 10.1% 8.4% 5.5% SHIPS-RII 13.7% 33.0% 28.6% 20.6% 14.3% 28.1% 22.9% 12.4% AI-RI and DTOPS 9.7% 30.5% 21.5% 14.0% 10.3% 26.0% 15.6% 7.1% Logistic Regression 1.0% 3.3% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 1.1% 3.6% 0.3% Bayesian 0.9% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS 15.0% 51.0% 39.0% 25.0% 19.0% 41.0% 24.0% 5.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Priscilla at 10/05/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 154 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.6% 26.7% 6.4% 2.1% 1.2% 12.2% 8.8% 12.0% SHIPS Consensus 6.3% 18.4% 12.7% 7.5% 5.1% 10.6% 14.2% 5.6% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.4% 20.4% 11.1% 6.1% 4.0% 11.0% 12.8% 7.2% SHIPS-RII 13.7% 35.8% 26.9% 17.9% 13.8% 27.4% 27.7% 14.8% AI-RI and DTOPS 8.3% 42.8% 24.2% 15.0% 11.6% 21.6% 22.4% 11.0% Logistic Regression 2.7% 7.5% 2.5% 1.6% 0.6% 4.3% 14.7% 1.2% Bayesian 2.6% 11.8% 8.8% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% DTOPS 14.0% 59.0% 42.0% 28.0% 22.0% 31.0% 36.0% 10.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------