Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Sonia at 10/29/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 69 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 2.5% 1.7% 0.9% 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 1.8% 1.3% 0.6% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 2.6% 7.3% 5.2% 2.7% 0.0% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Sonia at 10/29/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 74 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 4.1% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Sonia at 10/28/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 81 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.2% SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 2.4% 1.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 1.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 3.6% 7.3% 3.1% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Sonia at 10/28/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 87 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.8% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 3.3% 1.7% 1.5% 0.3% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 2.4% 1.3% 1.1% 0.2% 2.0% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 5.3% 9.8% 5.2% 4.6% 0.9% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Sonia at 10/28/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 82 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 2.6% SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 3.3% 1.9% 1.7% 0.5% 2.8% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 2.6% 1.4% 1.2% 0.3% 2.1% 0.0% 0.7% SHIPS-RII 5.4% 9.7% 5.7% 5.1% 1.4% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.3% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Sonia at 10/28/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 87 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.7% SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 3.3% 1.4% 1.1% 0.0% 2.1% 2.2% 1.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 2.4% 1.0% 0.8% 0.0% 1.5% 1.6% 1.4% SHIPS-RII 3.5% 9.1% 3.9% 3.2% 0.0% 6.1% 6.6% 3.8% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Sonia at 10/27/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 98 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 2.8% SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 3.4% 3.3% 2.5% 1.7% 3.8% 3.2% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 2.5% 2.4% 1.9% 1.2% 2.8% 2.4% 0.7% SHIPS-RII 6.4% 10.2% 9.8% 7.6% 5.0% 11.3% 9.5% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Sonia at 10/27/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 98 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 1.8% 3.8% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 4.0% 2.3% 2.0% 0.7% 3.4% 2.8% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 3.0% 1.7% 1.5% 0.5% 2.5% 2.5% 0.9% SHIPS-RII 5.3% 11.4% 6.8% 6.0% 2.1% 10.0% 8.5% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.9% 1.9% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Sonia at 10/27/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 103 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.8% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 4.0% 3.4% 2.5% 1.8% 3.8% 3.5% 2.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 3.2% 2.6% 1.9% 1.3% 2.9% 2.8% 1.5% SHIPS-RII 5.9% 11.8% 10.1% 7.5% 5.3% 11.3% 10.5% 6.1% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 0.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Sonia at 10/26/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 100 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 3.4% 3.1% 2.3% 1.6% 3.5% 3.2% 1.8% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 2.7% 2.4% 1.8% 1.2% 2.7% 2.5% 1.4% SHIPS-RII 5.1% 9.5% 9.0% 6.8% 4.8% 10.5% 9.6% 5.4% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 1.3% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Sonia at 10/26/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 99 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.8% 2.1% 2.3% 1.3% 0.3% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 5.0% 4.0% 3.1% 2.2% 4.6% 3.8% 1.6% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 4.3% 3.6% 2.6% 1.7% 3.7% 2.9% 1.1% SHIPS-RII 8.0% 13.8% 11.8% 9.1% 6.4% 13.6% 11.5% 4.6% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.9% 2.5% 2.1% 1.1% 0.6% 1.1% 0.6% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Sonia at 10/26/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 97 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.5% 4.4% 4.0% 2.1% 0.5% 3.5% 0.5% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 8.7% 5.7% 4.3% 3.3% 6.0% 5.1% 2.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 7.6% 5.3% 3.7% 2.6% 5.3% 3.9% 1.9% SHIPS-RII 10.0% 18.4% 15.0% 11.9% 8.8% 17.6% 15.1% 6.8% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.7% 5.7% 4.0% 2.5% 1.7% 3.2% 1.2% 0.2% Logistic Regression 1.8% 7.6% 2.2% 1.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% Bayesian 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 7.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Sonia at 10/26/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 102 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.4% 7.3% 3.5% 1.9% 1.1% 6.7% 3.7% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 8.6% 6.0% 4.5% 3.4% 6.2% 5.3% 2.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 8.2% 5.4% 3.8% 2.8% 6.3% 4.9% 1.8% SHIPS-RII 10.5% 19.9% 16.1% 12.7% 9.6% 18.4% 15.9% 6.8% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.2% 10.6% 5.7% 3.9% 3.0% 9.8% 3.3% 0.2% Logistic Regression 1.0% 5.6% 2.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 3.0% 14.0% 8.0% 6.0% 5.0% 13.0% 3.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Sonia at 10/25/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 104 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.2% 8.8% 6.6% 4.1% 0.4% 4.7% 2.2% 0.9% SHIPS Consensus 8.4% 19.4% 11.6% 7.7% 5.5% 8.6% 6.9% 3.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.8% 16.7% 10.3% 6.7% 4.2% 7.6% 5.7% 2.8% SHIPS-RII 14.7% 35.4% 22.3% 17.1% 12.8% 24.0% 20.0% 9.3% AI-RI and DTOPS 5.1% 11.9% 8.8% 5.5% 3.2% 6.8% 4.1% 0.4% Logistic Regression 5.2% 19.9% 11.2% 5.4% 3.6% 1.7% 0.6% 1.1% Bayesian 5.3% 2.8% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 8.0% 15.0% 11.0% 7.0% 6.0% 9.0% 6.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Sonia at 10/25/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 108 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 12.9% 14.2% 8.1% 8.1% 3.1% 9.4% 3.7% 1.6% SHIPS Consensus 24.7% 34.1% 24.3% 14.8% 9.8% 12.0% 8.7% 4.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 21.8% 29.1% 20.2% 13.1% 8.1% 11.3% 7.4% 3.7% SHIPS-RII 20.9% 43.6% 35.3% 22.7% 14.0% 27.9% 23.6% 10.6% AI-RI and DTOPS 11.4% 17.6% 11.5% 10.0% 6.5% 7.7% 4.8% 0.8% Logistic Regression 22.9% 46.0% 31.4% 18.8% 13.5% 7.5% 2.4% 2.7% Bayesian 30.5% 12.8% 6.1% 3.0% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS 10.0% 21.0% 15.0% 12.0% 10.0% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Sonia at 10/25/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 106 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.2% 21.9% 14.3% 11.4% 3.6% 14.9% 6.0% 1.8% SHIPS Consensus 13.3% 28.2% 19.5% 12.8% 8.2% 10.8% 7.2% 4.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 11.5% 26.6% 18.2% 12.4% 7.0% 11.8% 6.9% 3.9% SHIPS-RII 12.7% 25.8% 19.6% 15.6% 11.7% 21.7% 18.6% 11.1% AI-RI and DTOPS 4.1% 13.9% 9.1% 6.7% 2.8% 8.4% 4.5% 1.4% Logistic Regression 21.3% 52.8% 36.8% 22.0% 12.8% 10.4% 2.8% 2.9% Bayesian 6.0% 6.0% 2.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 10/25/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 127 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.3% 11.6% 3.5% 3.4% 1.3% 6.4% 4.7% 2.6% SHIPS Consensus 4.5% 13.5% 8.8% 5.8% 0.7% 7.3% 5.9% 4.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 13.0% 7.4% 5.1% 0.8% 7.0% 5.6% 3.8% SHIPS-RII 9.4% 19.7% 16.1% 12.7% 0.0% 18.8% 16.6% 10.9% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.6% 7.8% 2.7% 2.2% 1.1% 3.7% 3.8% 2.3% Logistic Regression 3.9% 20.3% 10.2% 4.6% 2.0% 3.0% 1.2% 1.9% Bayesian 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 10/24/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 104 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.2% 13.5% 5.1% 3.3% 1.8% 9.6% 2.0% 6.5% SHIPS Consensus 5.2% 17.8% 10.8% 6.7% 0.9% 8.1% 6.6% 6.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.6% 16.7% 9.3% 5.8% 1.1% 8.5% 5.4% 6.1% SHIPS-RII 9.7% 21.2% 16.1% 12.4% 0.0% 19.0% 17.1% 11.6% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.1% 8.7% 3.5% 2.1% 1.4% 5.3% 2.5% 3.7% Logistic Regression 5.6% 30.7% 16.1% 7.6% 2.7% 5.4% 2.5% 6.4% Bayesian 0.2% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------