Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)                                                                                                                             Wutip at 06/15/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.2% 7.7% 5.6% 5.9% 5.4% 1.1% 0.1% 14.3% 10.2% 25.6% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.7% 2.6% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 4.7% 3.4% 8.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Wutip at 06/15/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.9% 1.4% 1.4% 1.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 5.8% 3.6% 12.3% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 1.9% 1.2% 4.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Wutip at 06/14/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 4.9% 1.4% 0.7% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 4.8% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Wutip at 06/14/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 12.9% 5.9% 4.9% 7.0% 5.3% 0.9% 2.9% 1.0% 15.2% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 4.6% 2.1% 1.7% 2.4% 1.8% 0.3% 0.9% 0.3% 5.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                                     Wutip at 06/14/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.4% 30.1% 21.1% 17.0% 8.3% 8.3% 2.8% 11.7% 5.7% 21.9% RIPA Consensus 3.7% 6.3% 3.6% 3.3% 2.2% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.9% 14.2% 9.4% 7.8% 4.2% 3.8% 1.2% 3.9% 1.9% 7.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.9% 3.1% 1.8% 1.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.4% 9.4% 5.4% 4.9% 4.1% 2.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Wutip at 06/14/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.6% 26.0% 7.9% 8.2% 3.4% 8.3% 1.0% 7.0% 0.7% 0.6% RIPA Consensus 19.3% 30.5% 28.5% 28.5% 22.3% 9.5% 4.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 14.4% 29.0% 21.6% 21.7% 16.0% 9.1% 3.0% 2.9% 0.2% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 21.8% 23.7% 22.6% 22.6% 10.2% 7.6% 3.9% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 16.8% 37.4% 34.5% 34.5% 34.5% 11.5% 4.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Wutip at 06/13/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.6% 7.7% 2.2% 2.2% 1.6% 16.3% 4.6% 10.7% 2.3% 2.7% RIPA Consensus 2.6% 9.1% 5.6% 5.2% 4.1% 3.6% 1.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.2% 8.6% 4.4% 4.2% 3.2% 7.8% 2.3% 4.0% 0.8% 0.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.9% 4.1% 2.6% 2.4% 0.5% 2.0% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.3% 14.1% 8.6% 8.1% 7.7% 5.3% 1.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Wutip at 06/13/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.2% 9.7% 3.3% 1.5% 0.9% 10.9% 2.1% 13.5% 0.9% 4.8% RIPA Consensus 4.3% 13.3% 10.1% 10.1% 6.7% 5.8% 2.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.6% 12.0% 7.8% 7.2% 4.7% 7.5% 2.0% 5.2% 0.5% 1.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.1% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 0.8% 3.8% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.5% 19.0% 12.7% 12.7% 12.6% 7.8% 2.5% 2.0% 0.6% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------           Wutip at 06/13/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.3% 17.5% 6.5% 9.7% 5.2% 6.8% 1.1% 1.2% 0.2% 5.6% RIPA Consensus 19.1% 42.8% 41.0% 41.0% 27.6% 27.0% 14.5% 9.5% 3.6% 1.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 15.1% 34.3% 29.4% 30.5% 20.1% 20.2% 10.0% 6.7% 2.5% 2.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 18.8% 32.0% 30.7% 30.7% 7.4% 15.3% 7.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% Logistic Regression 19.4% 53.6% 51.2% 51.2% 47.8% 38.6% 21.8% 17.9% 7.1% 2.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------               Wutip at 06/12/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.0% 11.5% 7.3% 2.1% 0.3% 2.5% 0.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 8.1% 35.7% 24.8% 23.1% 19.9% 27.6% 12.8% 17.0% 6.4% 7.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.0% 27.6% 19.0% 16.1% 13.4% 19.2% 8.6% 11.5% 4.3% 5.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 7.6% 25.1% 14.5% 11.0% 5.4% 17.7% 7.2% 8.6% 2.4% 3.0% Logistic Regression 8.6% 46.2% 35.2% 35.2% 34.5% 37.4% 18.4% 25.4% 10.4% 12.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Wutip at 06/12/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.9% 7.4% 2.2% 1.1% 1.2% 1.9% 0.2% 1.0% 0.1% 4.9% RIPA Consensus 10.6% 35.5% 24.2% 22.9% 19.4% 24.5% 11.4% 8.0% 3.3% 4.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.6% 26.1% 16.9% 15.6% 13.3% 16.9% 7.6% 5.6% 2.2% 4.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 11.7% 26.5% 16.7% 14.1% 7.1% 14.8% 6.7% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% Logistic Regression 9.4% 44.5% 31.8% 31.8% 31.7% 34.1% 16.0% 14.2% 6.3% 8.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Wutip at 06/12/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 1.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 5.3% RIPA Consensus 2.4% 18.6% 8.8% 7.5% 6.6% 14.6% 5.3% 6.7% 2.8% 7.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.6% 12.8% 6.1% 5.0% 4.4% 9.8% 3.6% 4.5% 1.9% 6.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.3% 11.4% 5.6% 3.1% 1.3% 7.3% 2.9% 2.7% 0.5% 1.5% Logistic Regression 2.6% 25.9% 12.0% 12.0% 11.9% 21.9% 7.8% 10.7% 5.0% 12.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Wutip at 06/11/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 5.3% 1.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 5.4% 26.5% 13.9% 11.8% 10.2% 22.9% 10.0% 8.0% 4.2% 7.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.8% 19.4% 9.8% 7.9% 6.8% 15.4% 6.6% 5.3% 2.8% 5.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 6.0% 18.6% 9.4% 5.3% 3.3% 11.3% 4.8% 2.5% 0.5% 0.4% Logistic Regression 4.9% 34.4% 18.3% 18.3% 17.0% 34.4% 15.1% 13.5% 8.0% 14.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Wutip at 06/11/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.3% 6.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 0.8% 9.2% 3.2% 2.3% 2.2% 9.7% 3.0% 5.9% 2.4% 5.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.9% 8.3% 2.4% 1.5% 1.5% 6.5% 2.0% 4.0% 1.6% 4.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 4.2% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 4.0% 1.5% 4.1% 1.0% 2.1% Logistic Regression 1.2% 14.3% 4.9% 4.3% 4.2% 15.4% 4.5% 7.7% 3.8% 9.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Wutip at 06/11/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 17.8% 1.8% 0.3% 0.2% 1.6% 0.1% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 9.2% 3.2% 2.3% 2.3% 10.7% 3.4% 8.7% 3.5% 8.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.6% 12.0% 2.6% 1.6% 1.6% 7.7% 2.3% 6.0% 2.5% 5.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 4.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.4% 4.9% 2.0% 8.0% 2.2% 3.8% Logistic Regression 1.0% 14.2% 4.8% 4.2% 4.2% 16.6% 4.8% 9.4% 4.7% 12.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   One at 06/11/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 3.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 1.9% 0.3% 6.1% RIPA Consensus 1.1% 9.5% 3.4% 2.5% 2.3% 11.0% 3.6% 9.3% 4.0% 8.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.9% 7.3% 2.3% 1.7% 1.7% 7.4% 2.4% 6.8% 2.7% 7.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.9% 4.9% 2.5% 0.9% 0.4% 5.6% 2.5% 10.1% 3.2% 3.8% Logistic Regression 1.3% 14.1% 4.4% 4.1% 4.1% 16.4% 4.6% 8.4% 4.8% 12.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   One at 06/10/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.4% 5.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% RIPA Consensus 2.6% 15.9% 6.4% 4.7% 4.5% 18.8% 7.1% 12.2% 6.0% 9.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.1% 12.2% 4.5% 3.1% 3.0% 12.9% 4.8% 8.3% 4.0% 6.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.5% 9.8% 5.2% 1.9% 1.6% 10.3% 4.9% 14.3% 4.8% 4.7% Logistic Regression 2.7% 22.0% 7.7% 7.4% 7.4% 27.3% 9.3% 10.1% 7.2% 13.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   One at 06/10/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 8.6% 1.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 1.0% 9.2% 2.9% 2.0% 1.8% 12.5% 4.0% 10.8% 5.2% 14.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 9.0% 2.3% 1.4% 1.4% 8.5% 2.7% 7.3% 3.5% 9.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.6% 4.6% 1.6% 0.4% 0.3% 4.7% 1.9% 12.1% 3.7% 8.5% Logistic Regression 1.3% 13.9% 4.3% 3.7% 3.4% 20.2% 6.2% 9.5% 6.7% 19.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------